Today's Fantasy Rx

American League First Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Ortiz		582	175	.301	41	139	0	94	1D
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:L	28		27		65.7		54.9

The Red Sox wisely signed their eventual post-season hero to a three-year extension at a very reasonable rate during the season, which ranks as perhaps the best Boston move in recent years. Ortiz primarily approached $30 thanks to exceeding his previous single-season AB high by 134, resulting in the expected quantitative boost. Unfortunately, some slippage in his plate discipline and an abrupt drop from a .81 contact rate to a .77 mark suggest Ortiz almost certainly will regress. Not only will he fail to break $30 in 2005, but Ortiz may slip down to $20 if his BA heads back near his .278 career mark. Of course, he still ranks as one of the surest power sources in the game given his skills and comfy lineup slot; just don't overbid simply because his ALCS home runs essentially reversed the curse.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Teixeira		545	153	.281	38	112	4	101	1
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:S    T:R	22		23		44.8		48.2

A strained oblique and then minor hand problems cost Teixeira a couple weeks of games, but he otherwise played every day for Texas. If we project him to the 609 AB he might have accumulated, Teixeira could have compiled a .281/43/125/4/113 season despite only turning 24 last April. His power potential ranks with anyone in the game, especially since he doesn't suffer the contact problems of Adam Dunn. With two full years in the majors, negligible splits, and the most hitter-friendly park in the league, Teixeira soon should approach 50/140 seasons annually; his RBI totals could rise higher if Mike Young and Hank Blalock maintain very high on-base averages. While we don't know if Teixeira's average will rise over .300, I see no reason not to remain in bidding towards $30 to provide an excellent quantitative foundation for your team.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Paul Konerko		563	156	.277	41	117	1	84	1
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	21		21		39.5		32

While Konerko rebounded as expected, the off-season departures of Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee leave Paulie as the undisputed clubhouse leader and primary offensive threat on the White Sox. Of course, Chicago's decision to trade power for speed and defense appears likely to cripple runscoring, leading to fewer at-bats and especially RBI. The increasingly patient Konerko easily could hit another 40 homers while watching his RBI total drop by as much as two dozen. His second-half downturn also portends a BA decrease, leaving me unwilling to advise you to exceed $19 here unless desperate for quantitative help.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Darin Erstad		495	146	.295	7	69	16	79	1
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:L	20		20		12.4		12.4

A slow start followed by hamstring problems severely limited Erstad's production until mid-June. He held a batting average well over .300 for the next few months, but then a disastrous September dropped his value. Erstad still won the Gold Glove in his first year back at first base and demonstrated decent patience. A 94% SB success rate also demonstrates his continued excellence on the basepaths. However, his declining power potential sharply limits Erstad's value in sim leagues, so although he certainly merits bids in the high teens, targeting steals at first in lieu of any significant HR/RBI production could cause you problems unless you roster top producers at the other infield positions. The potential realization of Anaheim that Erstad needs a platoon partner also leaves him vulnerable to a decrease in playing time.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Millar		508	151	.297	18	74	1	74	1O
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	17		17		28.8		25.7

While Millar turned 33 in September and will reach free agency at the conclusion of this season, his skills remain very strong and Boston almost certainly will dump Doug Mientkiewicz, ceding the first base job back to their clubhouse leader. If he builds on his impressive second-half .319/.408/.566 performance, Millar even might exceed David Ortiz's value. Expecting a .300/30/100 season is a bad idea considering his uncertain situation with the Red Sox, but Millar wouldn't surprise me at all if he finishes 2005 with numbers near that level of excellence.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Sweeney		411	118	.287	22	79	3	56	1D
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	16		15		20.9		23

The unsurprising recurrence of Sweeney's back problems against kept him from playing 100 games. Carlos Beltran's departure also leaves him relatively alone in the Royals' lineup for the first time; David DeJesus and Cal Pickering look like the next best offensive options in Kansas City. Deteriorating patience unfortunately leaves Sweeney vulnerable to average drops, although at least a career-best .79 G-F gives him the best power potential of his career. The problem here is that we simply can't expect him to exceed 450 at-bats, so stop bidding at $19 and hope that he somehow stays healthy and reaches 550 AB for the first time since 2001, perhaps even concluding the season on a contender like Los Angeles following a trade for Hee Choi, Willy Aybar, and a pitcher like Joel Hanrahan.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Delgado		458	123	.269	32	99	0	74	1
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:L    T:R	15		15		32.8		31.7

With four teams in desperate need of Delgado still seeking to sign the slugger, he still might land in a great hitters' park like Ameriquest in Texas or in the suppressing environment of Dolphins Stadium in Florida. Judging his value prior to learning his eventual destination seems quite difficult, especially with both Shea Stadium and Camden Yards also possible homes for the first baseman. The good news for fans of any member of this quartet is that Delgado remains a disciplined hitter with excellent power potential since his oblique injury shouldn't reduce his production in 2005. I see little reason Delgado can't approach his .305/.408/.625 second-half performance last year once fully healthy, so he merits bids around $25 even if he heads to an NL pitchers' park.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Hatteberg		550	156	.284	15	82	0	87	1
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:L    T:R	13		15		19		20.9

Hatteberg's strong first half earned him All-Star consideration before he slumped after the break, stumbling to a .208/.292/.292 September performance as Oakland choked away a playoff spot, although I also fault Ken Macha for batting Hatteberg cleanup over 150 times despite a .420 SLG . Hopefully now Billy Beans will deal the first baseman while his career-best .284 BA might interest other teams. Dan Johnson belongs at first base for the Athletics, and with Erubiel Durazo not going anywhere, Hatteberg needs a new home despite his excellent plate discipline. When he can't even break an .800 OPS despite career-best marks of a .91 contact rate and .98 G-F, Hatteberg barely deserves a starting job, forget about more than endgame roto consideration.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ben Broussard		418	115	.275	17	82	4	57	1
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:L	13		13		21.6		18.5

An extremely unexpected .362/.429/.652 performance in 69 AB against southpaws should allow Broussard to avoid slipping into a platoon. He posted a .300/.395/.595 line after the break, supported by career-best marks of a .12 walk rate, 3.81 #P/PA, and .96 G-F. If Broussard boosts his contact rate over .80, he easily could exceed a .900 OPS for the year. If the Indians play him every day, a .300/30/100 season doesn't seem unreasonable, making him a very intriguing target anywhere under $20.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ken Harvey		456	131	.287	13	55	1	47	1D
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	11		11		8.5		11.3

Although his unexpectedly excellent performance over the first two months resulted in an All-Star berth for Harvey, he slumped badly throughout the summer and ended the year with stats scarcely better than his 2003 numbers. A newly reversed platoon split leaves him very vulnerable to losing playing time, especially if Cal Pickering continues producing as expected. Of course, Harvey managed a career-best 3.76 #P/PA, turns 27 in April, and should enter his third year as a regular. Despite the limited power potential resulting from an awful 2.34 G-F, he owns the skills necessary to hit .300 and therefore push $20, although I simply can't recommend remaining in any bidding above single digits due to Harvey's unimpressive immediate upside.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tino Martinez		458	120	.262	23	76	3	63	1
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:L    T:R	11		12		18.6		20.6

Although returning to the Yankees doesn't provide Tino with any significant advantages, manning his old post at first in the Bronx at least will boost Martinez's quantitative numbers due to the stronger hitters surrounding him. The increasingly disciplined veteran even could approach a 30/100 season, however expecting a 25/85 makes more sense, especially since he shouldn't play every day. Rostering him for less than $10 should net you a small profit.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rafael Palmeiro		550	142	.258	23	88	2	68	1D
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 40	B:L    T:L	11		11		17.9		15.1

The future Hall of Famer quietly appears on track for 600 homers after ending last year with 551 career dingers. While he slipped just below an .800 OPS for the first time in a decade, Palmeiro maintained excellent all-around skills. Hopefully Baltimore will find him a platoon partner given his declining performance against left-handers, but Palmeiro still should reach double-digit value regardless of his role. I recommend that only teams with strong qualitative bases target him, however he at least remains a strong COR option almost anywhere and even an acceptable first base starter in deeper leagues.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Pena		481	116	.241	27	82	7	89	1
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:L    T:L	11		12		16.5		11.8

Pena's failure to post a true breakout season last year worries me, however at least his quantitative numbers increased by no less than 50% each. The problem is that increasing contact problems lowered his BA to a career-worst .241 mark, effectively sabotaging the benefits of his impressive patience and otherwise respectable power potential. While Pena's .250/.362/.513 performance after the breaks suggests some additional upside, particularly considering he turns 27 in April, bidding into the teens requires hoping for a .250 BA unsupported by his current skills. Despite my faith in his long-term upside, generally treat Pena as a fallback 1B/CR option in most leagues.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ross Gload		234	75	.321	7	44	0	28	1O
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:L	9		9		13.6		13.6

While the White Sox reportedly believe he could start, a contention I support given his strong skills and minor league performance, Gload appears unlikely to receive a boost in a playing time. Even dumping Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee didn't open any playing time once Chicago added Scott Podsednik and Jermaine Dye, not to mention the hopeful return of Frank Thomas. Gload ranks as an excellent late-round pick due to his upside and position flexibility, but keep your bids to only a few bucks with the expectation of a small profit.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Stairs		439	117	.267	18	66	1	48	1OD
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:L    T:R	9		9		13.9		11

A few minor injuries limited his playing time, but Stairs wisely re-signed with the Royals and enters the season as a likely starter in an outfield corner despite his downturn in performance. My biggest concern here involves his jump from a .74 G-F to a 1.42 mark, his worst in nearly a decade. With increasing contact problems similarly sabotaging his power potential, I expect Stairs to finish 2005 as no more than a useful pinch-hitter after a deadline deal to a contender. While he easily could return to double-digit value, bidding more than a couple bucks on him to fill a fifth outfield slot looks like the prudent course of action.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dmitri Young		389	106	.272	18	60	0	72	1D
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:S    T:R	9		10		13.8		12.8

Likely taking encouragement from actors in the stands far too seriously, Young broke his leg in the second game of the season. He returned after a two-month sabbatical but failed to produce overly impressive numbers over the balance of the year. The good news is that Young only turned 31 in October, posted a career-best 1.49 G-F, and owns the skills necessary to reach the .300/30/100 level of excellence with any luck. Approaching $20 for Young in deeper leagues is not a bad idea.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Justin Morneau		280	76	.271	19	58	0	39	1
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:L    T:R	9		8		16.6		17.7

The Twins finally stopped sabotaging their offense, installing Morneau in the cleanup spot and dealing Doug Mientkiewicz. With good plate discipline and the power potential suggested by a .86 G-F, Morneau's fantasy potential ranks with almost any slugger in the game. Treat a $15 season of a .270/30/100 as a likely minimum for Morneau since even a .280/40/120 season doesn't appear overly improbable. Feel free to bid past $20 to secure one of the most talented young power hitters to reach the majors this decade; that price soon will look like a bargain if Morneau improves his .240/.289/.427 performance against left-handed pitchers.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Josh Phelps		371	93	.251	17	61	0	51	1D
TOR/CLE		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	6		6		2.5		-0.1

Sent to Cleveland for Eric Crozier and then non-tendered, Phelps fortunately has the chance to resurrect his flagging career with the Rays after Tampa signed him to DH. The problem is that while Dolphins Stadium should limit his power upside, decreasing plate discipline, a surging platoon split, and especially a skyrocketing ground-fly rate, which nearly doubled to a 1.82 G-F in only two years, all make Phelps a very risk acquisition. Tampa probably should play a prospect like Jonny Gomes, however I can't fault the team for this gamble given Phelps' upside. He only turns 27 in May and still might enjoy a lengthy career. I just wish something in his stats supported my belief in Phelps' potential for improvement other than a .270/.298/.580 second-half performance I discount due to the small sample size of 100 at-bats. Only buy Phelps in a late round if you need power and he costs only a few bucks.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lou Merloni		190	55	.289	4	28	1	25	1
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	4		4		4		4

Expect Merloni to accumulate another 150 at-bats somewhere, but despite developing power potential, his limited upside renders him particularly useless given his current position qualification. While he might help if his new team agrees to keep him from facing right-handed pitchers, deploying Merloni as anything more than short-term roster filler suggests you aren't attempting to win your league.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John Olerud		425	110	.259	9	48	0	45	1
SEA/NYY		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:L    T:L	4		5		3.4		7.8

Considering Olerud nearly retired after his hometown Mariners released him, his current lack of a team doesn't surprise me at all. While landing with the Yankees provided him with an interesting opportunity down the stretch, Olerud's declining production simply won't help most teams. He similarly no longer belongs on standard fantasy rosters due to his diminished batting average. Only activate him if he finds a comfortable situation and holds decent numbers in no less than part-time duty.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bucky Jacobsen		160	44	.275	9	28	0	17	1D
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	4		3		7.3		7.3

Knee surgery ended Jacobsen's season early, but his .275/.335/.500 performance in a month of regular playing time positioned him for a potential starting job until Richie Sexson signed. Seattle still might reward the Bucky Backers by dealing Randy Winn, opening left field for Raul Ibanez and rightfully ceding the DH slot to Jacobsen following his outstanding .312/.422/.661 with 26 HR, 86 RBI, and a 50:88 BB:K in 292 AB for AAA Tacoma(PCL). With a respectable skill set and intriguing power potential, definitely target Bucky if he enters the season as a starter since even approaching $20 appears a reasonable possibility.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Clark		253	56	.221	16	49	0	37	1
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:S    T:R	2		2		1.3		1.3

Clark only needs an everyday job to hit 30 homers, but an atrocious .64 contact rate and rising ground-fly rate should lead to a playing time decrease for the third straight season. Leaving New York also costs Clark an excellent opportunity for regular at-bats, leaving him to scrounge for a back-up job. Only teams with a superb qualitative base and a significant need for a COR power boost should consider Clark at any price.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dave McCarty		151	39	.258	4	17	1	24	1
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:L	1		2		1.1		1.1

Remaining with the Red Sox on a minor league deal gives McCarty a surprisingly good chance to break camp as the 25th man again considering his position flexibility and even potential value as an occasional pitcher. A reasonably patient approach at the plate also could keep his average at an acceptable mark, but considering McCarty owns no foreseeable fantasy upside, I see no reason to roster him anywhere.

'04 First Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Targeting mostly the younger first baseman easily offers you best chance of rostering a profit, particularly if you draft Teixeira, Broussard, Harvey, Pena, Morneau, or even Phelps. Strongly consider supplementing your team with Kevin Millar or Dmitri Young; either veteran easily could cruise over $20 while likely costing not much more than half that price in many drafts.