Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Third Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Garrett Atkins		28	10	.357	1	8	0	3	3
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	0		-1		3.4		3.4

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Colorado for my comments on Atkins.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Trent Durrington		82	19	.232	2	4	4	13	3
MIL Brewers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	0		0		-1.6		-1.6

While Durrington returned to the Brewers in December on a minor league deal, he merits little consideration for a bench after failing to reach even a .300 OBP or .700 OPS in his second year of extended big league duty. At least he owns good speed skills, and a 3.99 #P/PA demonstrates strong patience at the plate, but his failure to contribute in most fantasy categories limits his value until he proves he can hold an acceptable BA as a reserve in the majors.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark DeRosa		309	74	.239	3	31	1	33	3
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	-1		0		-13.4		-12.7

Braves' fans should thank DeRosa; his fairly terrible averages resulted in Chipper's move back to the infield. Of course, DeRosa's .613 OPS and a torn ACL in September also resulted in Atlanta non-tendering the utility infielder, and he remains unsigned despite some upside in his past performance. DeRosa won't deserve fantasy consideration until he at least reestablishes himself as a big league reserve capable of holding an helpful batting average.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Zeile		348	81	.233	9	35	0	30	31
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 39	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-7.2		-12.4

Zeile retired at the conclusion of the season, ending a six-year career that took him to ten different franchises yet resulted in no awards, league-leading performances, or multiple World Series' appearances. Of course, he remained reasonably productive throughout his career even though he typifies the free-agent journeyman of the last two decades often acquired as a mid-season rental. Anyone who accumulates over 7500 big league at-bats probably deserves more credit then Zeile receives.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brandon Larson		118	25	.212	3	14	1	13	3
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-4.3		-4.3

Injuries and ineffectiveness destroyed Larson's shot at contributing with the Reds, and the displeased team cut him after the season. Larson wisely signed a minor league deal with Tampa in December. While Alex S. Gonzalez opens the year as Tampa's starting third baseman, Larson gives the Rays a better option than Jared Sandberg at Durham. Larson possesses the power and patience necessary to enjoy a few years as a big league starter at the hot corner. Although I can't recommend selecting him even in a deep reserve draft due to his poor performance over the past two years, keep Larson in mind if he earns a promotion into a significant role for the Rays.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andy Tracy		16	3	.188	0	1	0	1	3
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:R	-2		-3		-1.3		-1.3

The journeyman cornerman re-signed a minor league deal with the Rockies after he pounded a .315/.390/.631 line with 42 2B, 33 HR, 120 RBI, 98 R, and a 58:115 BB:K in 464 AB for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL). While Colorado's corners appear rather full with Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, Greg Norton, Desi Relaford, and perhaps Brad Hawpe and Ryan Shealy all seeing some big league time, Tracy again could sneak into the majors at least as a backup or injury replacement. With surprisingly strong patience and power potential, he still could emerge as a useful fantasy player, although wait until he begins seeing regular at-bats before rostering him anywhere.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tomas Perez		176	38	.216	6	21	0	22	3
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:S    T:R	-2		-2		-5.6		-5.6

Philadelphia retained Perez by signing him to a two-year extension with an option for 2007 following the season. Of course, the unexpected return of Placido Polanco will limit Perez's playing time barring an injury to Jimmy Rollins. While I see some upside here after Perez managed a 3.86 #P/PA and .73 G-F in 2004, a dropping contact rate and overall poor offensive performance leave him with little value to fantasy teams. Don't select Perez in spring drafts, and generally avoid him even as roster filler due to his persistent second-half struggles.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Mordecai		84	19	.226	1	5	0	7	3
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:R    T:R	-3		-3		-4.9		-4.9

Mordecai stayed with the Marlins, accepting a position as the manager of short-season A- Jamestown(NYP). However, he almost certainly will return to the majors in September with the understandable goal of accumulating the remaining service time he needs to reach ten years as a big leaguer, thus qualifying for a full pension. Of course, he may not even bat when promoted, once again rendering him useless to fantasy teams.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tim Hummel		110	24	.218	1	7	1	10	3
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	-3		-3		-6.5		-6.5

The Red Sox grabbed Hummel off waivers in early September, giving him a surprisingly good chance to break camp as no worse than the top infield candidate for a promotion from Pawtucket. Unfortunately, while Hummel remains quite young, two consecutive poor performances in the majors, combined with limited quantitative upside, give him little value to fantasy teams. Don't plan on employing him as more than roster filler any time soon, and I even wouldn't count on Hummel not to hurt your team in a limited role until he demonstrates some ability to hold an acceptable BA as a big leaguer.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Cirillo		75	16	.213	1	7	0	12	3
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	-3		-3		-4.5		-4.5

While his .312/.453/.409 performance with a 23:15 BB:K in 93 AB for Mochis of the Mexican Pacific League this winter should earn Cirillo an NRI somewhere, I see little reason not to avoid him. His OPS dropped for the fourth straight season despite apparently decent skills. Even a potential deal with the Rockies doesn't make him more than an end-round play in traditional Ultra leagues. You must wait until Cirillo presents some indication of a rebound towards his formerly solid averages before rostering him anywhere.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andy Green		109	22	.202	1	4	1	13	3
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	-4		-3		-8.7		-8.7

Green understandably caught my eye after compiling a .327/.394/.534 performance with 31 2B, 9 HR, 45 RBI, and a 34:45 BB:K for AAA Tucson(PCL) last year. The problem with Green is that he bombed horribly in the majors, barely exceeding a .500 OPS, and then lost his spot on Arizona's 40-man roster after the season. Only another rash of injuries will bring back Green as a big league backup, although he appears unlikely to succeed above AAA any time soon.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Stynes		162	35	.216	1	16	0	16	3
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	-4		-3		-9.9		-8.5

Pittsburgh cut Stynes almost immediately following their acquisition of Ty Wigginton after the veteran journeyman posted his worst numbers since debuting with Kansas City back 1995. His recent deal with Baltimore at least gives him the chance to win a regular job if Melvin Mora suffers more injuries, but with increasingly poor skills, Stynes looks unlikely to emerge as a viable roto option. Don't draft him in any league.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tim Olson		97	18	.186	2	5	1	8	3
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	-4		-4		-4.3		-4.3

A broken hand during the spring led to a late start for Olson, although he at least managed a .299/.373/.517 performance with a 16:28 BB:K in 147 AB for AAA Tucson(PCL). Of course, a .621 OPS in Arizona destroyed his value to the organization, costing him his 40-man spot after the season. Olson shifted to the Rockies, however I simply don't see him enjoying a better opportunity in Colorado unless their admittedly superior cadre of young talent somehow plays worse than the guys deployed by the Diamondbacks last year. Avoid Olson until he demonstrates some ability to convert his decent minor league numbers into a big league success.

'04 Third Basemen Week concludes tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Third basemen in the National League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If Garrett Atkins holds the Colorado starting job at third base as expected, he should cruise to double-digit value with the potential of pushing as high as $25 on the strength of his BA upside. Unfortunately, I don't expect any of the other dozen players discussed above even to earn positive value barring unforeseen circumstances, rendering them effectively worthless in all spring drafts.