Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I now will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some batters.

National League Third Basemen with Double-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adrian Beltre		598	200	.334	48	121	7	104	3
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	42		39		76.5		86.1

Yes, Beltre only turns 26 next April and spent over the last six seasons as the Dodgers' starting third baseman. He also played in a pitchers' park that suppresses batting averages for right-handed hitters, albeit while boosting their home runs by ten percent. However, nothing in his skills supports this breakout other than an across-the-board improvement in his splits. Beltre exceeded his total homers from the previous two seasons despite only a drop from 1.09 to 1.04 G-F. His 3.74 #P/PA is his worst mark since 1999, and jumping from a .82 contact rate to a .85 mark doesn't account for a .094 BA leap. I want to believe that Beltre can maintain this level of excellence; few observes believe that he doesn't possess the tools to remain among the most productive hitters in the game considering he won't reach his likely prime for a couple more years. Unfortunately, moving to the Mariners initially drops him towards 40 homers, and a lineup weak fewer OBP sources will lead to less RBI. Bidding above $30 looks like a tremendous gamble, and although I expect him to average somewhere around .300/30/100 for the length of his new deal, even pushing over $25 seems a bad idea given his inconsistent skills trends. Let someone else run the risk here while you target one of the current top half-dozen AL third baseman who underachieved to some extent in 2004.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Rolen		500	157	.314	34	124	4	109	3
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	29		29		58.5		70.3

The newly undisputed top NL third baseman again missed a couple week due to injury problems, namely calf and shin injuries that kept him from challenging Vinny Castilla for the league RBI title. Rolen's health issues also contributed to a BA drain down the stretch, keeping him from a truly impressive average rather than just exceeding the 300 and .310 levels for the first time. While Rolen owns the skills necessary to post a .350/40/160 season at some point given his cushy lineup slot, we can expect some backsliding in 2005 given his fairly skill trends. Other than the drop from a .82 to .68 G-F that gives him a good shot at reaching 35 homers, I see little reason to remain in most bidding that approaches $30. Grabbing him at $29 isn't a terrible idea, and inflation certainly could drive his price upward, but Rolen simply remains a rather risky player to own.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aramis Ramirez		547	174	.318	36	103	0	99	3
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	28		28		51.6		42.2

Chicago will regret not giving Ramirez a three-year deal somewhere between $21 and $24 million last winter for many seasons after this breakout and the spending spree of recent months pushed his price towards $40/4. Ramirez only turns 27 this July, and bumping his contact rate from .84 to .89 should keep him over .300/30/100 annually. Not only does he remain surprising patience for a Cub, his .80 G-F gives him excellent power potential. If he bats 600 times this year as I expect, Ramirez should cruise past 40 homers, making him perhaps the most consistent NL third base option given his age and upside.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ryan Freel		505	140	.277	3	28	37	74	3O
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	24		23		5.5		2

Adding Joe Randa in lieu of awarding an everyday job to Freel boggles my mind. Freel emerged as one of the year's best roto bargains, leveraging his great speed skills from a late-round draft day pick into of the top SB sources in baseball thanks to an unexpected everyday job atop Cincinnati's lineup. Yes, he owns a somewhat weak BA, but leadoff men can afford weak averages if they own a .375 OBP. Freel's 4.00 #P/PA and .13 walk rate easily support his 2003 performance, so while we may see him perform nearer his second-half averages of .273/.369/.370, he easily merits a double-digit bid in the hope that Dave Miley will deploy him most days, allowing the developing speedster to swipe another thirty bases.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Lowell		598	175	.293	27	85	5	87	3
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	22		22		35.4		29.1

Staying in Florida, which suppresses right-handers' BA by 14%, will keep Lowell from pushing $30 any time soon. The good news is that his ground-fly ratio, at .65, remained between .60 and .70 for the sixth straight season. However, his career-best .87 contact rate still kept him under a .300 average, and an extended second-half power outage prevented him from repeating his 32/105 from 2003, compiled in over a hundred fewer at-bats. While Lowell could reach a 40/120 season some day, nothing in his skills indicates more than a relative echo of last year's marks, leaving him no higher than $25 in standard leagues.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Vinny Castilla		583	158	.271	35	131	0	93	3
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 37	B:R    T:R	18		19		28.5		27.5

Even estimating the likely drop Castilla's performance seems somewhat foolish considering we don't know how RFK will play for the new National. However, when he departed Coors for Tampa after the 1999 season at age 32, his batting average fell from .275 to .221 while his slugging evaporated from .809 to a .562 mark. He also only managed a .218/.281/.493 line on the road last year. I don't view Tampa as a terribly unfair comp for RFK, and considering Castilla managed a .271/.867 performance in 2004 after failing to exceed a .775 in the intervening four seasons, I suspect a .280/25/80 season represents an absolute upside for Castilla. Career-best marks of a 3.54 #P/PA and .99 G-F could keep him from losing more than half his 2004 value, but bidding into double digits remains an extremely risky move given the difficulties previously encountered by so many hitters departing Coors, including Castilla.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Bell		533	155	.291	18	77	1	67	3
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:R    T:R	16		16		21.2		30.6

Bell rebounded from a terrible 2003 performance as expected despite not taking advantage of his hitter-friendly new home park. While I see slight erosion in his skills, Bell's relative consistency makes him a surprisingly safe play. Excellent road numbers and a second-half BA boost give him the potential for a true career year. Although you shouldn't have to bid past $15 in most leagues, approaching $20 isn't a bad idea considering a .300/20/80 season appears rather reasonable. With a little luck in avoiding missed games due to further back problems, Bell even might outperform Mike Lowell, who should cost more than Bell in all fantasy leagues.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Batista		606	146	.241	32	110	14	76	3
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	16		16		-7		-14.6

While Tony Batista signing a two-year deal for $15M isn't a complete surprise in this winter's market, his contract with the Fukuoka Hawks in Japan nicely ups the bar for players headed across the Pacific. Batista only turned 31 in December, and given his strong power skills and the upside suggested by his improved contact rate last year, he could dominate Japanese pitching for a couple seasons before returning to the States for another significant contract. Yes, his terrible .272 limits his actual value, which accounts for his lack of offers from MLB teams, however playing for Montreal at least allowed him an excellent quantitative season. He'll merit more fantasy consideration whenever we see him re-sign here.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pedro Feliz		503	139	.276	22	84	5	72	31
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	15		16		11		15

I hoped to see the Giants give Feliz a chance at shortstop after he spent nineteen games there last year, but signing Omar Vizquel and keeping J.T. Snow forces Feliz back into a utility role, primarily subbing for Edgardo Alfonzo at third and possibly platooning with Snow. Of course, Feliz only owns mediocre overall skills, highlighted by impressive yet not outstanding power potential. Any drop in his average due to no longer playing every day will drop his OBP back below .300, largely eliminating his value in sim leagues and leaving him an obvious risk anywhere above single digits.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Sean Burroughs		523	156	.298	2	47	5	76	3
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:S    T:R	13		14		-0.9		0.8

Knee surgery ended his season early following another disappointing year at the plate, but Burroughs only turned 24 in September and heads into his third full big league season this spring. He nearly batted .300 on the strength of career-best marks of a .90 contact rate and 3.71 #P/PA. Yes, his career-worst 2.18 G-F severely limits the power potential of someone playing home games in Petco; he also suffers from continued problems against southpaws. However, Burroughs posted a .316/.362/.409 second-half performance, no longer needs to lead off following the acquisition of Dave Roberts, and owns the skill set necessary to exceed a $20 value in 2005. You'll regret letting him go anywhere shy of the mid-teens.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Edgardo Alfonzo		519	150	.289	11	77	1	66	3
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	13		14		8.3		12

While I want to recommend Alfonzo considering his strong plate discipline, eroding plate discipline and a worrisome new platoon split suggest he barely deserves any everyday job. Pedro Feliz could continue stealing playing time, and although Alfonzo still might rebound over $20 some year, two straight unimpressive seasons in San Francisco leave me hesitant to remain in any bidding that enters the teens. Alfonzo only looks like a fallback option in most leagues despite his still-intriguing upside.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Wright		263	77	.293	14	40	6	41	3
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 21	B:R    T:R	11		11		13.9		13.9

Starting Wright's arbitration clock early was a bad move for the Mets, but he deserves the starting job after demolishing the upper minors. He posted a .363/.467/.619 performance over 223 AB for AA Binghamton(EL), followed by a .298/.388/.579 line in 114 AB for AA Norfolk(IL), and totaled 35 2B, 18 HR, a 22/32 SB%, and a 55:60 BB:K between both levels. Wright held a .300 average over the final two months of the year while compiling a 3.79 #P/PA, .75 G-F, and a 6/6 SB%. He easily ranks as the brightest young position player in the league and could approach $40 before he reaches free agency. Considering his plate discipline, five-category upside, and the lineup protection provided by New York's off-season acquisitions, letting Wright go for less than $20 in standard leagues looks like a mistake.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rob Mackowiak		491	121	.246	17	75	13	65	3O
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:R	11		12		0.4		-3.1

Right now Mackowiak looks like Pittsburgh's fifth outfielder and seventh infielder, which positions him as the last man on the bench. Yes, he enjoyed an impressive season, but he sunk to a .418 OPS against southpaws and only managed a .258/.337/.447 performance against right-handed pitchers. Despite decent plate discipline and developing power potential, he probably belongs in a reserve role. While drafting for a few bucks in a late round isn't a bad idea, even expect him to reach half this value is a big gamble.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Morgan Ensberg		411	113	.275	10	66	6	51	3
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	11		11		3.1		4

As he appears to enjoy Phil Garner's support, a logical development following considering Ensberg's .299/.349/.477 performance after the break and an excellent Division Series, he remains at risk of losing playing time to Mike Lamb. However, Ensberg owns a solid skill set and heads into his third full big league season, so I see no reason not to expect a strong rebound towards his 2003 numbers. Consider Ensberg an excellent sleeper anywhere around the mid-teens, although dealing him at the beginning of summer might be a good idea if you see Lamb begin to steal playing time in any sort of platoon.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chipper Jones		472	117	.248	30	96	2	69	3O
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:S    T:R	10		11		21.1		13.3

Returning to third base provides a nice jolt to Larry's value following his worst season in several years. After a torn hamstring cost him a month in the spring and led to a very poor first half, Jones nicely rebounded after the break, compiling the .278/.391/.548 performance we expect him the usual MVP candidate. Atlanta needs him to reemerge as an All-Star following J.D. Drew's departure, and with a career-best 3.83 #P//PA, Jones certainly possesses the skills to register another .300/30/100 season. Slotted behind the developing dynamic duo of Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles and supported by Andruw Jones, Adam LaRoche, and Johnny Estrada, any outfield improvement by the Braves adds to a surprisingly formidable lineup. A $30 season here won't surprise me at all, potentially making Jones one of the best bargains in fantasy baseball.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chad Tracy		481	137	.285	8	53	2	45	3
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:L    T:R	10		10		6.4		6.4

Arizona's off-season shopping might leave only Chris Snyder and Tracy as the youngsters in an otherwise veteran lineup. Unfortunately, while Tracy has nothing to prove in the minors, he lacks the power to remain at first base indefinitely despite the upside suggested by a 3.94 #P/PA, .88 contact rate, and a .82 G-F. He also apparently requires a platoon partner after compiling a .215/.261/.299 performance against southpaws, though those averages might improve with more experience. While I still like Tracy's potential, he appears unlikely to more than strongly echo these numbers, making him good trade bait now, a risk on draft day anywhere in double digits due to his limited quantitative upside, and an intriguing if you can grab him at a discount for 2006.

'04 Third Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with single-digit PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Third base looks like a good place for NL owners to target bargains. With Adrian Beltre departing the league and Scott Rolen, Ryan Freel, Mike Lowell, and a few other top performers in 2004 headed towards similar seasons, if not outright declines in value, Sean Burroughs, David Wright, Edgardo Alfonzo, and especially Morgan Ensberg should provide good profits. Grabbing Aramis Ramirez or Chipper Jones obviously offers more upside, but don't get irritated if other owners also overbid for the veterans; just grab a post-hype sleeper like Burroughs or Ensberg at a late-round discount.