Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Third Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Terry Tiffee		44	12	.273	2	8	0	7	3
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:S    T:R	0		0		1.6		1.6

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Minnesota for my comments on Tiffee.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dallas McPherson		40	9	.225	3	6	1	5	3
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:L    T:R	0		-1		0.2		0.2

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Anaheim for my comments on McPherson.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Justin Leone		102	22	.216	6	13	1	15	3
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	0		0		-0.8		-0.8

An impressive .269/.344/.597 performance with 21 HR, 51 RBI, 56 R, and a 26:82 BB:K in 253 AB for AAA Tacoma(PCL) earned Leone a mid-season promotion. He largely flopped with the Mariners, committing nine errors in 30 games before a pitch broke two of his fingers, ending his season in mid-August. While Leone at least managed a .441 SLG thanks to 1.00 G-F and 4.10 #P/PA, Seattle unsurprisingly signed Adrian Beltre, forcing Leone to the DH slot at best. Of course, Leone probably will spend most of this year in the minors before the Mariners either deal him or lose the third baseman on waivers. Leone likely lacks the offensive skills necessary to start regularly in the majors, making him a bad fantasy investment at this time.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andy Phillips		8	2	.250	1	2	0	1	3
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		0.2		0.2

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: New York(A) for my comments on Phillips.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Spiezio		367	79	.215	10	41	4	38	31
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:S    T:R	-1		0		-12.3		-17.2

The signings of Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson leave Spiezio on the bench despite the roughly $6M the team still owes him. Of course, a Randy Winn trade would keep Raul Ibanez in the outfield and open DH for Spiezio to compete for at-bats with Bucky Jacobsen and other prospects, a decent idea since injuries led to most of Spiezio's problems last season. He still owns relatively solid skills, so if he bumps his contact rate from .84 to .87, expect him at least to manage a few bucks of value. A late-round investment here should result in a nice little profit in most AL leagues.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Esteban German		60	15	.250	0	7	0	9	3
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-2.7		-2.7

While Oakland only briefly allowed German regular at-bats, he again failed to take advantage of this opportunity and departed the organization for the Rangers as a minor league free agent this winter. Unfortunately, Texas also can't offer German much playing time despite his respectable .329/.380/.424 performance with a 19:29 BB:K and 18/20 SB% in 231 AB for AAA Sacramento(PCL).
Although German remains fairly young and still owns the strong speed skills necessary to accrue significant roto value very quickly, wait until you see him secure steady playing time in the majors before considering him anywhere.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Greg Dobbs		53	12	.226	1	9	0	4	3
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:L    T:R	-1		-1		-3.1		-3.1

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Seattle for my comments on Dobbs.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Earl Snyder		4	1	.25	0	0	0	0	3
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	-1		-2		-0.3		-0.3

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Boston for my comments on Snyder.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shane Halter		114	23	.202	4	13	1	10	3
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-5.8		-5.1

With his OPS dropping for the third straight season and no likely rebound given his steady skill trends, Halter no longer belongs in the majors. While I expect him to remain in professional baseball following his .275/.349/.481 performance in 131 AB for AAA Salt Lake(PCL) as a reserve, he appears unable to contribute positively to any fantasy team.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon A. Castro		15	2	.133	0	3	0	2	3
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-1.6		-1.6

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Oakland for my comments on Castro.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Greg Norton		86	15	.174	2	2	0	9	3
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:S    T:R	-4		-3		-5.9		-6.5

Norton completely bombed in Detroit, posting one of the worst roto values in baseball. He smartly re-signed with Colorado on a minor league deal and almost certainly will resume his 2001-03 role as one of the game's top pinch-hitters. Considering Norton remains a disciplined hitter with promising power potential, feel free to employ him as roster filler at any time during the year. The only potential problem rests with the risk of the Rockies deploying him against southpaws. If Norton starts facing left-handed pitching more than a couple times a month, dump him before his terrible splits again sabotage his BA.

'04 Third Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Third Basemen in the American League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: As McPherson ranks near the top of most 2005 Rookie of the Year lists, expect him to cost much more in drafts than he'll return given the likelihood of him posting a weak BA. Yes, he'll hit a couple dozen homers, but he almost certainly won't exceed $15. Tiffee and Spiezio possess the real upside here. I expect a solid rebound from Spiezio, and only a fluke injury kept Tiffee from establishing his starting credentials for the Twins into the playoffs. A good camp should result in him beating out Mike Cuddyer to start at third base, creating an excellent opportunity for savvy fantasy owners.