Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Third Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Melvin Mora		550	187	.340	27	104	11	111	3
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:R    T:R	37		35		64		62.7

Good health and a stable position finally allowed Mora to translate his developing skills into the dominant season we expected him to post some time soon. He combined three respectable months with three outstanding months, suffering from no severe split and no worrisome statistical trends. Mora's skills support a couple more $30 seasons, especially if the Orioles add at least one on more solid bat to complement Tejada and Javy Lopez. Bailing out of any bidding below $30 looks like a mistake since Mora even could push $40 with a little luck. He ranks among the top dozen AL players under almost any metric.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Rodriguez		601	172	.286	36	106	28	112	3
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	35		34		44.6		44.6

Losing 37% of his homer total over the past two seasons definitely concerns me considering his correlating ground-fly erosion. Increasing contact rate problems similarly correspond with his BA decline. However, ARod remains a seven-skill player worthy of nearly annual MVP consideration. Playing under Joe Torre resulted in an unsurprising SB spike, and I see no reason why he won't remain near 30/30 for the next few years. Consider him a quality buy anywhere below $30 and a passable acquisition to $40 even if his swipe at Bronson Arroyo in Game 6 of the ALCS ranked with the most egregiously unsportsmanlike acts in recent memory.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aubrey Huff		600	178	.297	29	104	5	92	31D
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:L    T:R	25		24		34.6		22.4

Huff flailed badly in April, struggling to a sub.600 OPS that dragged down his first-half averages to a .269/.340/.425 line. Of course, his expected improvement over the balance of the season kept his season stats very close to his 2003 marks, dropping by only 5 homers and 15 BA points. The biggest erosion occurred in Huff's doubles, where he fell from 47 to 27 in only 36 fewer at-bats. However, while some of these signs concern me, he just turned 28 in December and demonstrated improved power potential, giving him an excellent chance to return to 30 homers this year. The likely Tampa first baseman looks like a bargain anywhere under $30 given his relative consistency and upside.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Hank Blalock		624	172	.276	32	110	2	107	3
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:S    T:R	19		20		33		33

While Blalock's significant second-half slump concerns me, his dramatic improvement against left-handers, coupled with intriguing skill development, positions him nicely for a breakout in his third full season this summer. He improved from a 3.63 #P/PA to a 3.94 mark, dropped from a .73 to .69 G-F, and boosted his walk rate from .08 to .12. If Blalock reverses the drop in his contact rate from .83 to .76, his fantasy value should shoot above $30. As he only turned 24 in November, expect him soon to begin compiling annual .300/40/120 seasons as one of the top hitters in baseball. Investing in Blalock looks like one of the safest plays in roto since his strong skills give him an excellent chance to rebound.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Chavez		475	131	.276	29	77	6	87	3
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:L    T:R	17		18		35.8		49.5

Damaso Marte cost Chavez six weeks that probably kept Oakland out of the playoffs when the White Sox southpaw broke Chavez's right hand at the beginning of June. Of course, he still managed to walk 95 times on the strength of a career-best 4.05 #P/PA while holding a .97 G-F that propelled him to a career-high .898 OPS. Only health problems could keep Chavez from finally cruising past a .900 OPS by a hundred or more points now that he no longer suffers from a platoon split. A rejuvenated Chavez should rank among the top MVP contenders, however he still shouldn't reach a .300 BA; his real value should continue to exceed his roto value, so bidding above $30 qualifies as an unnecessary gamble.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Casey Blake		587	159	.271	28	88	5	93	3
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	17		18		22.5		28.6

Hopefully Blake's move to the outfield helps him focus on continuing to develop his offensive skills. Yes, he probably won't boost his OPS much more considering he turns 32 next August, and the drop in his contact rate from .80 to .76 makes him a BA risk. However Blake also managed a 4.26 #P/PA and 1.09 G-F while remaining reasonably productive against southpaws and developing more power in the second half. Considering he only enters his third full season this spring, any additional hitting improvement will push him over $20, making him a good buy at $15 or lower.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Corey Koskie		422	106	.251	25	71	9	68	3
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:L    T:R	13		13		15.1		24.5

I see a lot to like here considering Koskie dropped his ground-fly rate from .98 to a career-best .76 mark and moves into a much better park for left-handed power hitters in Toronto. However, another spate of injuries, highlighted by a strained sternum and a high ankle sprain, led to a decrease in playing time for the third straight season. With declining plate discipline and continued problems against left-handers, I see little reason to risk a substantial bid here given the multitude of interesting alternatives. Capping your bids in the mid-teens looks like the prudent course of action despite his $30 upside since I don't expect Koskie even to surge over $20 in the Jays' depleted lineup.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bill Mueller		399	113	.283	12	57	2	75	3
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:S    T:R	10		12		15.8		12.9

Boston exercised Mueller's option for this year even though knee surgery cost him six weeks at the beginning of summer and he stumbled to a poor .225/.319/.319 performance on the road. Mueller now only has reached 400 at-bats once in the past four season. While Mueller still owns the skills to bump back over .300, I certainly don't envision him winning another batting title. Kevin Youkilis also should continue to steal at-bats, so although Mueller merits a double-digit bid, heading much into the teens for Mueller practically guarantees you won't turn a profit.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Randa		485	139	.287	8	56	0	65	3
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	10		11		8.5		12.2

While Randa found a nice short-term job with Cincinnati, the signing makes no sense from the Reds' perspective. Adding Randa forces Ryan Freel into a utility role after his OBP ranked among the top 40 hitters in the majors last year. Cincinnati also should deal Randa during the season whenever Edwin Encarnacion finishes acclimating to AAA pitching. Fortunately for Randa, the benefits provided by shifting stadiums could push to him improved overall numbers, but he hasn't faced NL pitching regularly in seven seasons. Randa also lacks any encouraging skill trends, so consider him no more than a mid-round option for a few bucks if you can't find a third baseman with any upside.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jolbert Cabrera		359	97	.270	6	47	10	38	31O
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	10		9		-2.7		-2.7

Seattle surprisingly sold Cabrera to Japan despite a decent season following his acquisition from Los Angeles for a couple of decent pitching prospects. Of course, Cabrera also owns little plate discipline or power potential, and his double-digit steals account for much of this value. I still expect him to play for a few more seasons in the majors, but he obviously isn't a viable fantasy option this summer.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Hinske		570	140	.246	15	69	12	66	3
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:L    T:R	10		10		-8.3		-18.1

Rather than rebound from a disappointing sophomore season, the 2002 Rookie of the Year continued his offensive descent. His plate discipline and ground-fly rate deteriorated, leading to a weak second half following a merely respectable .274/.346/.403 performance before the break. Maybe Toronto's acquisition of Corey Koskie will lead to improvement from Hinske now that he can focus on his hitting after shifting to first base, but only a mild increase to a career-best .81 contact rate demonstrates any positive skill trend. While Hinske still merits double-digit bids, anything above the low teens seems an unnecessary risk in most leagues despite his upside.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Robb Quinlan		160	55	.344	5	23	3	23	3
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	9		8		15.6		12.1

A late-season oblique tear unfortunately ended Quinlan's season in September, but his overall performance at the plate secured him a 2005 roster spot in one of the deepest offenses in baseball. While Quinlan currently looks likely to battle for Juan Rivera to DH against left-handers, qualifying at third base gives him significant sleeper potential, especially if Dallas McPherson stumbles at any point. Quinlan owns a solid skill set and certainly could contribute if given the opportunity, so definitely try to snag him with a late-pick in any AL draft.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Crede		490	117	.239	21	69	1	67	3
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	5		6		-4.9		-0.7

Another poor season dropped the former top prospect near the bottom of Chicago's lineup. While a smart organization might kick him to AAA Charlotte for a few weeks to help him gain confidence, replacing Crede with a quality AAAA journeyman like Bry Nelson or Bobby Smith, the White Sox allowed Crede to flouder in the majors. He almost certainly will enter a third season in the starting lineup following the departure of Jose Valentin, although Juan Uribe or Ross Gload could cover the position if necessary. The main problem is that Crede possesses little plate discipline, a problem exacerbated by the managerial philosophy of Ozzie Guillen. Considering Crede's averages dropped again despite turning 26 last April, I see no evidence to recommend targeting him in any league. Yes, he owns significant power potential and remains somewhat young, but even pushing the bidding into double digits is a bad idea unless you can handle a BA hit in exchange for a 25/75 quantitative contribution.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Youkilis		208	54	.260	7	35	0	38	3
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	3		3		4.5		4.5

Despite only posting a .266/.350/.403 performance with a 19:29 BB:K in 154 AB for AAA Pawtucket(IL), Youkilis compiled better marks in the majors as a summer replacement at third base for Bill Mueller. His 4.57 #P/PA and .80 G-F demonstrate significant long-term upside, and if given a chance to start, expect him to regularly exceed $15. However, the youngster almost certainly will spend this season on Boston's bench, making him no more than a late-round flyer with decent trade value in most leagues.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Munson		321	68	.212	19	49	1	36	3
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:L    T:R	1		1		-3.6		-10.6

A key member of the long string of failed #1 picks for the Tigers, the third overall pick of the 1999 draft departed his original organization when Detroit non-tendered him last month. While Munson still owns intriguing power potential and hinted at a potential rebound this year with his 3.91 #P/PA and .82 G-F, a weak .72 contact rate makes him a BA sinkhole. He also doesn't accumulate enough walks to maintain an acceptable OBP, so Munson appears headed back to the minors to earn another starting chance. Don't risk rostering him in any league until you see him either demonstrate improved skills for a AAA affiliate or he begins holding an acceptable average in the majors.

'04 Third Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Drafting any of the top several AL third baseman looks like a good idea this year. Each of them at least should echo these marks, and I expect improvement from at least a couple of these hitters. Paying for a quality third baseman in AL leagues makes significant sense due to the severe drop-off down the list, where only Robb Quinlan owns solid skills and the potential to explode in value if given regular playing time.