Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Second Basemen with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Reyes		220	56	.255	2	14	19	33	2
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 21	B:S    T:R	9		8		-4.1		-5.7

With back, hamstring, ankle, and leg problems sidelining Reyes this year, he only stayed healthy for one entire month; he hit .318 with an 11/11 SB% and a 0:15 BB:K in 110 July at-bats. Limited patience requires Reyes to combine a solid contact rate, excellent speed skills, and developing power to remain productive. Fortunately, he owns all these abilities, and he could exceed $40 if he remains healthy for a full season. The problem is that two years of injuries leave us no reason to expect him to see more than 400 at-bats. Despite tremendous upside, I see little reason to push bidding on Reyes above the teens.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis A. Gonzalez		322	94	.292	12	40	1	42	2O
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	9		9		6.9		6.9

Although the Rule 5 pick likely will remain in the majors this year, Aaron Miles, Clint Barmes, Garrett Atkins, and Desi Relaford will split the majority of infield at-bats. Gonzalez possesses poor plate discipline, however at least his impressive .364/.392/.568 in limited action during the second half indicates decent potential for him to remain productive. Acquiring Gonzalez anywhere in single digits at least shouldn't hurt you.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chase Utley		267	71	.266	13	57	4	36	2
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:L    T:R	8		7		4.7		6.6

While Placido Polanco accepted arbitration, Utley should start even if the Phillies don't deal the veteran. Utley registered a .285/.368/.512 performance with an 18:29 BB:K in 123 AB for AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL) during his unfair demotion, and then demonstrated a respectable all-around skill set over the balance of the year. Struggles against southpaws might lead to a platoon, but with his 3.86 #P/PA and a 1.27 G-F, I expect Utley to overcome his questionable plate discipline. Although Utley may only reach about $12 in 2005, he could double that value within the next couple years.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Hernandez		211	61	.289	13	29	3	32	2
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	8		7		16.1		15

Despite decent skills, Hernandez looks like a bad fit for a young Cleveland team that doesn't need to limit the playing time of any developing players in a platoon. Hernandez owns good power and patience, but I see no reason his batting average won't fall towards his .253 career mark given his traditional contact problems. Considering him as much more than roster filler until he gains additional position flexibility looks like a mistake.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Walker		372	102	.274	15	50	0	60	2
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:L    T:R	8		8		12.9		7.2

Chicago re-signed Walker at second base, yet hopefully the team will find him a capable platoon partner since he produced very little offense against southpaws. Walker's combination of patience and power potential means that only managers unwilling to overlook his defensive lapses will prevent him from approaching 400 at-bats annually. Additional playing time might allow him to reach 20/80, but I harbor concerns about his batting average due to a declining contact rate. Consider Walker a solid acquisition anywhere in single digits unless the Cubs acquire an alternate capable of emerging as a full-time starter.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Grudzielanek		257	79	.307	6	23	1	32	2
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	7		7		7.5		8.5

Posting a .349/.378/.503 performance in 175 at-bats against right-handed pitchers suggests Grudzielanek could flourish batting behind the Cardinals' All-Star mashers. Only further health issues could keep him from another .300 BA and a potential career-high RBI total. A sudden drop from a 1.87 G-F to a 1.12 mark similarly could result in double-digit homers, cementing Grudzielanek's status as an excellent sleeper heading into the spring.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Cora		405	107	.264	10	47	3	47	2
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:R	6		7		0		3.5

Losing his jobs with the Dodgers virtually assures Cora of opening the year as a reserve barring injury. The good news is he demonstrated significantly improved plate discipline, which should combine with a superior hitting environment to give him a few bucks of value even in a limited role. Only his second-half slump suggests that his strong skill trends won't translate into an improved overall performance, but I still see little reason not to roster him as a late-round MIF.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Junior Spivey		228	62	.272	7	28	5	33	2
MIL Brewers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	6		5		3.9		2.1

Only a couple years removed from an All-Star season, Spivey returns to Milwaukee as the most experienced member of the Brewers' infield. While a shoulder problem ended his season in July, expect a full recovery by spring training as Spivey emerges as a lineup key in the #2 hole between Brady Clark and the Overbay-Carlos Lee-Jenkins heart-of-the-order. With patience, decent power, and some speed, don't be surprised if Spivey rebounds towards $20 if he avoids further injury, making him an intriguing bargain anywhere short of the teens.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jamey Carroll		218	63	.289	0	16	5	36	2
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	5		5		4.8		3

Compiling a second-half .311/.408/.385 line on a 22:15 BB:K in 122 AB demonstrates remarkably solid skills for Washington's top reserve. While he possesses little overall roto value due to negligible power and limited speed, expect at least a couple bucks of BA production here. Definitely consider Carroll if you need a Dollar Days' MIF option with a good chance of earning a few bucks of profit.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Castillo		383	98	.256	8	39	3	44	2
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:R    T:R	4		4		-7.3		-7.3

Double-promoting Castillo to the majors into a starting role over Bobby Hill caused several significant long-term problems for Pittsburgh. Rushing Castillo likely damaged his development, benching Hill despite intriguing upside effectively crushed his trade value, and now even if Castillo echoes Jack Wilson's development, he'll reach arbitration and free agency a year sooner than needed. Perhaps only a 3.71 #P/PA indicates much immediate promise for Castillo as he lacks speed and a 2.44 G-F suggests a 10 HR ceiling barring a move towards an uppercut. I see no reason to consider Castillo prior to any other starting second baseman, as well as possibly a few solid NL reserve infielders.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Damion Easley		223	53	.238	9	43	4	26	2
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	3		3		2.8		2.8

Easley resurrected his career less than a year after he seemed headed out of the game following his release from Tampa. While he never again should post a solid BA, respectable patience and intriguing power potential could keep him employed for several more seasons. He ranks as a solid endgame option for any owner with a high team BA.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Hairston		339	84	.248	13	29	3	39	2
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	3		4		-1.1		-1.1

The abandonment of promising youngsters like Alex Cintron and Scott Hairston this winter could set Arizona back a couple years, however I firmly believe both middle infielders still will emerge as quality options this summer when the Snakes' aging veterans suffer expected injuries. I also don't mind seeing Hairston slip back to the minors for a few more months considering he only accumulated 452 AB above A-ball before reaching the majors. Hairston at least should develop into a lefty masher yet possesses the power potential that insures he'll receive repeated looks as a full-time starter from a couple teams. Target him for a minimal amount in any NL league, especially if an early demotion allows you to snag him in a reserve round.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nick Green		264	72	.273	3	26	1	40	2
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	3		3		-2.7		-2.7

Demonstrating no more than marginal offensive upside throughout his minor league career somehow resulted in Green emerging as the Braves' starting second baseman during another DL trip for Marcus Giles. Now Green appears likely to enter this season as Atlanta's top reserve infielder, and while he shouldn't hurt you, he also offers little to most fantasy teams. Generally avoid him as more than short-term roster filler.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marlon Anderson		253	60	.237	8	28	6	31	2O
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:R	3		3		-7.1		-27.7

While I doubt Anderson will see less than a couple hundred at-bats this year, he also settled for a minor league deal from the Mets, so his odds of contributing in any significant role appear quite remote. He never should face a left-handed hitter, and a second-half collapse places his future BA contribution in doubt. Conversely, continued injuries involving the Mets' middle infielders could result in a few hundred at-bats a potential $20 season for Anderson, so I see little reason not to spend a late-round pick on him.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Keppinger		116	33	.284	3	9	2	9	2
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	2		1		-0.3		-0.3

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: New York(N) for my comments on Keppinger.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe McEwing		138	35	.254	1	16	4	17	2
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	1		1		-4.6		-5.3

Little Mac continues to compile one of the more unimpressive career stat lines in recent memory, failing to break even a .610 OPS in the past three seasons. Defensive flexibility, decent patience, and a promising 1.05 G-F somehow don't give the 5'11" reserve any overt upside, so only risk rostering him even as a short-term replacement in very deep leagues where you already possess a strong BA foundation.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bobby Hill		233	62	.266	2	27	0	28	23
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	1		1		-5.1		-5.1

The sublimation of the former top prospect continues as Pittsburgh foolishly jumped Jose Castillo into a starting job rather than providing Hill the regular job he deserves after a few successful seasons in the upper minors. Somehow he still managed a .353 OBP in sporadic playing time, but a year after swiping several bags at AAA he failed to steal a single base. Hill simply doesn't merit much fantasy attention until you see some indication of improving quantitative potential or a Castillo meltdown creates an opening for a full-time job that Hill seizes over the equally-deserving Freddy Sanchez.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Roberto Alomar		171	45	.263	4	24	0	18	2
ARI/CHW		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:S    T:R	1		1		-1.2		-1.2

Posting a .309/.382/.473 in 110 AB for Arizona indicates Alomar remains a viable starter, however a rapidly increasing injury log and general skill erosion, including a career-worst 2.18 G-F makes him a gamble at any price. An abysmal .180/.203/.246 line with the White Sox also suggests that he at least requires a right-handed platoon partner and probably needs a respectable back-up. Gambling much more than a minimum investment on the future Hall of Famer doesn't appear too wise even if he lands an everyday job somewhere.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Kata		162	40	.247	2	13	4	17	2
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	1		1		-2.8		-2.8

Separating his shoulder at the end of May ended Kata's season after a month of unimpressive play as Roberto Alomar's replacement at second base. While Kata still should break camp in the majors and still owns respectable patience and power potential, I see relatively little to like here at the moment considering both Alex Cintron and Scott Hairston deserve another chance to start over a probable long-term reserve like Kata. Gambling more than an endgame pick here offers little upside in any league.

'04 Second Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Almost everyone discussed above could reach double-digit value in full-time jobs. Jose Reyes, Chase Utley, Todd Walker, Mark Grudzielanek, Junior Spivey, and Jose Castillo look like the best bets to experience improvement since each should hold a full-time job in 2005. Rostering any of these players for a couple bucks under $10 should provide a nice bargain for your squad.