Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Second Basemen with Double-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Loretta		620	208	.335	16	76	5	108	2
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	31		30		49.2		59.8

Loretta posted the best numbers of his career and made his first All-Star team. Bumping his contact rate from .89 to .93 translated into an excellent BA that accounted for half this value, and a career-best 1.02 G-F buoyed a career-high 16 homers despite moving into Petco. Excellent second-half numbers even provide hope that he can echo these numbers for a couple more seasons. With three straight .300 seasons and skill-supported power development, he at least will hold above $20, making him a good buy anywhere under that price.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Womack		553	170	.307	5	38	26	91	2
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:L    T:R	27		27		11.2		-0.2

Joining the Yankees virtually guarantees Womack plenty of SB opportunities. He might even enjoy a mild power boost thanks to the more favorable environment of Yankee Stadium. While he remains a mild injury risk and shouldn't exceed $25 again, I see little reason not to push $20 when bidding on the veteran speedster.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Kent		540	156	.289	27	107	7	96	2
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:R    T:R	23		23		33.6		21.1

Steady decline of his contact rate over the past four years down to a .82 mark will combine with Dodger Stadium to drag the aging Kent's average close to his .250 BA in 1997 than his 2004 BA. Losing excellent OBP sources like Beltran, Berkman, and Bagwell similarly will erode his RBI total. While Kent remains valuable, he could fall near $15 if his overall production declines as I expect. I see little reason to remain in any bidding approaching $20, although he at least should hold decent value in sim leagues.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marcus Giles		379	118	.311	8	48	17	61	2
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	21		20		18.8		24.1

Yes, Giles seems quite fragile as a broken right collarbone, groin, and then elbow problems cost him over a third of the season. A nearly across-the-board skill decline also worries me, but I simply don't see tremendous problems here. Giles excelled down the stretch once fully healthy, and considering he turns 27 in May, he should reemerge as the best second baseman in the league. Invest in him now before his coming rebound boosts his price well over $30.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Castillo		564	164	.291	2	47	21	91	2
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:S    T:R	21		21		7.3		17.4

Another batch of minor injuries resulted in more downward movement of Castillo's roto value, but he demonstrates perhaps the best skills of his career in this otherwise unimpressive season. While he only stole 21 bases for the second straight years, he dropped from 19 CS to four, indicating significantly improved baserunning skill. A career-high 1.10 BB:K similarly suggests a likely bounce back over .300 this year. Don't be surprised if Castillo blows past $30 if higher averages translate into more SB opportunities.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Placido Polanco		503	150	.298	17	55	7	74	2
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	18		18		12.7		18.6

Accepting arbitration with Philadelphia cost Polanco a guaranteed starting job for a gain of no more than a couple million, a bad move considering he owns the skills to echo Mark Loretta's recent success in San Diego. Conversely, David Bell's annual health problems at least should insure Polanco receives semi-regular playing time until injuries elsewhere in the league result in another team overpaying for a capable starting infielder. Posting a .326/.358/.502 performance in 273 second-half at-bats, supported by a strong .92 contact rate, suggest that Polanco remains a bargain anywhere short of the teens. Despite unimpressive plate discipline, a high BA, respectable power, and intriguing speed skills insure that he won't remain a reserve for long.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aaron Miles		522	153	.293	6	47	12	75	2
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:S    T:R	17		17		-1.2		-1.2

Demoting Miles in mid-May at least slowed his free agency clock, however nothing here suggests he'll merit a regular starting job for the next several years. Of course, fantasy owners shouldn't worry about the future here because Miles should spend this summer as the third most experienced player in the Rockies' lineup; combining a .90 contact rate with 300 at-bats in Coors automatically gives him double-digit value on the basis of his BA alone. Yet don't rank him high in keeper leagues since Miles appears destined for part-time duty due to his nearly completely lack of secondary skills, suggesting that even bidding into the teens leaves you little upside here.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ray Durham		471	133	.282	17	65	10	95	2
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:S    T:R	17		18		23.8		30.2

Drafting Durham at a relative discount due to his succession of injuries creates an excellent opportunity for significant profit. He added a career-best 1.05 G-F to increasingly impressive plate discipline, which positions him for .300/20/80/20 upside. Unfortunately, SBC Park mutes some of those numbers, and five different leg problems last year could prevent him from exceeding a dozen steals ever again. Try snagging him in the mid-teens based on this performance, but if he appears fully healthy during spring training, pushing past $20 might net you a $30 return.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
D'Angelo Jimenez		563	152	.270	12	67	13	76	2
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	15		15		9.2		16.6

Continued improvement of Jimenez's patience and power potential keeps edging his upside upward. While problems against left-handers might force him into a platoon, solid skills at least insure he'll maintain double-digit value and he could break $20 any season. Jimenez only turned 27 a few weeks ago, and if Cincinnati allows him to develop further in the everyday lineup, he might challenge for an All-Star spot in the near future.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Vidro		412	121	.294	14	60	3	51	2
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:S    T:R	13		13		19.2		16.2

Departing Olympic Stadium for the RFK's grass hopefully will allow Vidro to avoid additional knee problems and play a full season this year. Despite limited power potential due to a weak 1.76 G-F, rock solid plate discipline and a .90 contact rate should insure he holds a .300 BA. Expect an easy $20 season due to a .300 BA and over a dozen homers, making Vidro a good bargain anywhere in the teens.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Keith Ginter		386	101	.262	19	60	8	47	23
MIL Brewers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	11		11		12.4		12.4

Despite strong power numbers and a second-half surge to an .892 OPS, I don't view Ginter as more than a platoon starter for Oakland since the Athletics will allow Mark Ellis a chance to win back his job. Of course, Omar Quintanilla should supplant Ellis within the year, and Ginter looks like a much better platoon partner for the left-handed rookie than Ellis. Ginter at least will produce regardless of his role thanks to his patience and a consistently solid ground-fly rate. He only needs 300 at-bats to smack double-digit homers, and given his position flexibility, he looks like an excellent target in most leagues, especially if he appears likely to back-up Ellis and therefore you can grab him at an obvious discount.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ty Wigginton		494	129	.261	17	66	7	63	23
NYM/PIT		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	11		11		7.3		-3

I don't see any reason not to believe that the pressure created by David Wright's presence lower in the Mets' system contributed to Wigginton's ulcer last April. He at least rebounded following his .188/.216/.333 April performance, however Wigginton again collapsed following his move to the Pirates in the Kris Benson deal, posting a .178/.257/.333 line in May. Ignoring those catastrophes and ten October at-bats, Wigginton managed a .300 BA and 14 homers in the other four months, suggesting $20 upside this summer considering he also just turned 27 in October and enters his third full season in the majors. While his skills remain rather questionable and he doesn't look like a long-term infield solution for Pittsburgh, roto owners still shouldn't allow him to fall below $15 due to his potential for a .280/25/90 season.

'04 Second Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with single-digit PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Target the younger players from this group given their generally strong skills and intriguing upsides. Marcus Giles and D'Angelo Jimenez appear most likely to jump in value in 2005. Hoping for full seasons from Ray Durham and Jose Vidro similarly could yield helpful results. The biggest sleeper here looks like Keith Ginter, who could spend next season starting at second base for Oakland, likely keeping his fantasy value in double-digits.