Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Second Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chone Figgins		577	171	.296	5	60	34	83	23O
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	30		28		23.9		23.9

Ignore both his second-half power outage and an uncertain lineup slot. Figgins will remain the leadoff man in Anaheim until a young middle infielder like Alberto Callaspo or Erick Aybar wins the second base job in a couple of years. The speedster will open the year at second, subbing for the rehabbing Adam Kennedy, and then will begin shifting around the diamond, perhaps even emerging as the primary DH over Jeff DaVanon and Robb Quinlan. With a history of strong speed skills and plate discipline, as well as some hints of developing power, expect Figgins to fall no lower than $20 even if he slumps. Considering his position flexibility and $40 upside, he ranks among the most appealing AL keepers.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alfonso Soriano		608	170	.280	28	91	18	77	2
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	26		24		28		13.9

While the virtual 50% drop in steals severely hurt owners that exceeded $40, losing 10 homers and 37 runs caused nearly as much damage. Soriano remains a five-category threat who anchors a fantasy lineup, and he still possesses the skills necessary to rebound into a roto stud. However, only a slow ground-fly decrease demonstrates overt skill growth, to most bidding here should stall around $30 barring some indication from the Rangers that Soriano will attempt over thirty steals.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brian Roberts		641	175	.273	4	53	29	107	2
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	21		22		13.4		20.5

He turned 27 in October, heads into his third full year in the majors owns impressive plate discipline, and soon should develop more power. With Jerry Hairston effectively no longer in competition for the starting job at second, Roberts possess the skills to double this value by combining his 22 first-half steals and .295 second-half BA over a full season. At least twenty percent of his fifty doubles also might become home runs. Surpassing 120 runs also wouldn't shock me with Mora, Tejada, Javy Lopez, and possibly Delgado supporting Roberts. Only a dropping contact rate concerns me at all, but given his youth and upside, Roberts merits bidding past $20 in any reasonably deep league.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Kennedy		468	130	.278	10	48	15	70	2
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:R	15		16		13.7		27.3

Ripping both his right ACL and MCL in September abruptly ended a perfectly respectable season for Kennedy. He now could miss a couple months of this year while recovering, and although his long-term deal should result in him returning to the lineup when healthy, new Anaheim leadoff man Chone Figgins needs to play somewhere. Yes, Figgins will spend plenty of time at DH and subbing in the outfield, but his presence as the Opening Day second baseman seemingly insures that Kennedy won't receive the playing time to reach double-digit value. Since the veteran also posted his worst skill set in years, you may not see much profit even if you nab Kennedy at an injury discount in a late round. While I still like his long-term upside, expect Kennedy's value to fall by half appears a reasonable precaution.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ron Belliard		599	169	.282	12	70	3	78	2
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	14		14		24.2		16

The unexpected return to Belliard to Cleveland creates severe competition for playing time in the Indians' infield. While Belliard merits at least a platoon job, posting a poor .263/.322/.372 performance against right-handed pitchers certainly limits his upside. He remains a patient hitter with intriguing power potential, but nothing here suggests that Belliard even should return to double-digit value in 2005, leaving him as a decent buy only below $10.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Miguel Cairo		360	105	.292	6	42	11	48	2
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	13		13		11.2		13.1

Losing the Yankees' starting second base job to Tony Womack pushes Cairo back into a utility role wherever he lands barring unexpected spring training development. While he produced decent numbers in New York, his limited upside doesn't merit him regular playing time anywhere, leaving him as little more than a decent endgame MIF option.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bret Boone		593	149	.251	24	83	10	74	2
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	13		14		12.3		12.3

Boone posted his worst numbers since joining the Mariners despite experiencing no significant skill degradation. The additions of Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, and even Jeremy Reed hopefully will invigorate the veteran second baseman, resulting in another odd-year resurgence following his second-half improvement. I expect the extended illness and eventual October death of his grandfather Ray, combined with the summer addition of twins to Bret's family, simply left him without sufficient resources to remain at an All-Star level. Considering he also underwent post-season vision correction surgery, I see at least three significant off-field reasons to expect a rebound this year, leaving us no reason to expect him to reach less than a .275/25/90/10 season and potentially a $30 .300/30/115/15 campaign.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Bellhorn		523	138	.264	17	82	6	93	2
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:S    T:R	12		14		29.3		28.3

A couple of season-saving homers at the end of ALCS rewarded Terry Francona's faith in the journeyman second baseman while also guaranteeing him a starting job this year. Excellent plate discipline and power potential nicely compensate for Bellhorn's abundant strikeouts, so although Hanley Ramirez or Dustin Pedroia could push Bellhorn off second in a year or two, he remains an excellent asset in any league right now. Expect him to echo these stats nicely, remaining above single-digit value despite a weak batting average.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Young		344	99	.288	1	27	14	55	2OD
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 37	B:R    T:R	12		12		9.9		6.5

Landing in San Diego should drop Young's at-bats below 300 for the first time in a decade, but he could steal two dozen bases on a Padres' team committed to reintroducing the stolen base to their offensive attack. Excellent plate discipline also should keep Young's average near his .285 career mark despite the move from Ameriquest to Petco, making the former top speedster an excellent mid-round acquisition anywhere in single digits.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Orlando Hudson		489	132	.270	12	58	7	73	2
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	11		12		19.1		25.9

Hamstring problems limited Hudson throughout much of the first half, however a significant improvement against left-handers to a .262/.326/.467 performance overshadows his minor difficulties. A career-best 4.00 #P/PA finally boosted his walk rate over .10, and his drop just under a .80 contact rate doesn't overly bother me considering his ground-fly ratio fell from 1.64 to 1.47 G-F. Hudson enters 2005 with more than two full years in the majors and relatively respectable skills; he also only turned 27 a few weeks ago. While he needs a strong performance to delay the arrival of Aaron Hill, I see no reason Hudson can't manage a breakout season.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Willie Harris		409	107	.262	2	27	19	68	2O
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:L    T:R	11		12		0.8		-0.7

Intriguing speed skills and an unchallenged starting job could push Harris well over $20 this year. Improving patience and contact skills should create sufficient on-base opportunities for the youngster to approach 30 steals rather easily given the new focus in Chicago on baserunning. Assuming Harris performs well during spring training, at least consider bidding into the high teens to secure this solid SB source.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Rivas		336	86	.256	10	34	15	44	2
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	10		10		5.7		-2.6

A variety of minor injuries again limited his playing time, but Rivas otherwise demonstrated excellent skills growth, only truly stumbling in his walk rate, which obviously doesn't affect roto players directly. Impressive speed skills, increasing power potential, and hints of a potential BA spike for the nearly 26-year-old Rivas gives him an excellent shot to reach a 20-20 season while shooting over $20. Consider him a significant bargain at anything below the teens.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Cuddyer		339	89	.263	12	45	5	49	23
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	8		8		10.9		4

Despite the strong play of Terry Tiffee, Corey Koskie's departure should open third base for Cuddyer, who appears ready to emerge as a solid option after three years of part-time duty. He dropped his ground-flyr rate from 1.45 to .93 G-F, continued to demonstrate good patience, and improved to a .287/.378/.487 performance after the break. As Cuddyer's surprisingly slow development makes him a significant sleeper in almost any league, consider him a potential steal anywhere in single digits.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Graffanino		278	73	.263	3	26	10	37	2
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:R    T:R	7		7		0.9		0.9

Departing the Cell for the refurbished Kauffman Stadium resulted in the worst season for Graffanino since he departed Atlanta after 1998. Tearing his right meniscus in May cost him almost a month of action, and then rotator cuff surgery ended his season in mid-August. However, he also managed a .333/.358/.410 performance in 78 April at-bats, held decent batting skills all year, and continues to demonstrate intriguing SB upside. Graffanino looks like an endgame MIF pickup who could emerge as a $15 asset considering the Royals' second base alternatives all need at least another year in the minors.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marco Scutaro		455	124	.273	7	43	0	50	2
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	6		7		4		3.2

The acquisition of Keith Ginter and return of Mark Ellis will push Scutaro way down on the Oakland bench if not off the roster entirely. While his .338/.358/.429 April performance in 77 at-bats provided the Athletics with a needed early jump start, he failed to reach a .325 OBP in any subsequent month and finished the season with minimal overall value. Negligible quantitative upside and surprisingly poor plate discipline give Scutaro little shot to contribute to fantasy teams as more than roster filler.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Frank Menechino		269	74	.275	9	26	0	40	2
OAK/TOR		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	4		5		14.2		17.2

While the addition of John McDonald will limit Menechino's time at shortstop, he should see a couple hundred at-bats as perhaps the best offensive asset on Toronto's bench. Of course, he only truly belongs in the lineup against left-handed pitchers after he posted a .315/.398/.565 performance against them last year, but with a solid skill set highlighted by a 4.09 #P/PA, consider Menechino a viable MIF Dollar Days' option and useful roster filler in any AL league.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jorge Cantu		173	52	.301	2	17	0	25	2
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	B:R    T:R	3		3		8.8		8.8

At least Cantu's .302/.335/.576 performance with 22 HR, 80 RBI, and a 16:64 BB:K in 368 AB for AAA Durham(IL) should keep him in the majors in some capacity this year, but he truly deserves a starting job despite the insane signings of Roberto Alomar and Alex S. Gonzalez. Respectable marks of a 3.75 #P/PA, a 1.33 G-F, and an outstanding 53 doubles on the season, in addition to his .301/.341/.462 line in Tampa, give the youngster significant long-term offensive upside. Feel free to target him in any league even if he opens the year with the Rays since he appears set to emerge as a double-digit value as soon as 2006.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nick Punto		91	23	.253	2	12	6	17	2
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	3		2		0.9		0.9

The combination of a sprained oblique in May and a broken collarbone in July destroyed Punto's season. Now he enters spring training as part of a four-way competition for the starting shortstop job, and while I believe Jason Bartlett deserves the most playing time, Punto could emerge as a significant roto asset even in a limited role. He held a .306/.419/.306 line with a 4/4 SB% in only 36 April at-bats. Considering his previous minor league numbers indicate significant speed skills and his injuries last year shouldn't slow him at all, Punto possibly could steal three dozen bases with an everyday job. I expect him to approach double-digit value under any circumstance, and with a respectable BA supported by good plate discipline, target him for less than $5 as a reserve and into the low teens if he wins a spot in the Opening Day lineup.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Augie Ojeda		59	20	.339	2	7	1	16	2
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:S    T:R	2		2		5.6		5.6

While his unexpected .339/.429/.458 performance with the Twins technically places him in competition for a bench spot and even possibly the starting shortstop job, his .245/.331/.321 line for AAA Rochester(IL) better illustrates Ojeda's abilities. Yes, Augie remains a fan favorite and even can help a team in a limited role with decent defense and good plate discipline, but he possesses absolutely negligible quantitative upside and doesn't belong on fantasy teams as anything more than short-term roster filler.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ruben Gotay		152	41	.270	1	16	0	17	2
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 21	B:S    T:R	1		1		0.7		0.7

Injuries and ineffectiveness at the big league level resulted in an unexpected promotion of Gotay into the starting lineup at the beginning of August. While he posted a strong .289/.372/.441 performance with 9 HR, 8 SB, and a 51:59 BB:K in 401 AB for AA Wichita(TL), his stats with the Royals, including a 4.13 #P/PA and 1.15 G-F, suggest he should emerge as a quality starting second baseman as soon as the second half of this year. Although Gotay lacks significant quantitative upside, his relative youth and excellent patience suggest he could develop into a significant offensive asset, making him a good target in any relatively deep league.

'04 Second Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Target a young, switch-hitting second baseman reaching his prime to obtain a player with a good chance of experiencing a breakout year. Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts, and Orlando Hudson all intrigue me; either of the first two could surge past $40 with any luck. Luis Rivas similarly could produce impressive numbers if he remains healthy. Both Soriano and Boone look like interesting gambles if their weak seasons translate into draft day bargains. Target Nick Punto during Dollar Days or early reserve rounds, especially if a poor camp from Jason Bartlett results in an opportunity for a nominal backup like Punto. He stole no less than 33 bases in the upper minors three straight years and still owns the skills to blow past double-digit roto value with any regular playing time. Lastly, rostering both Graffanino and Gotay could pay significant dividends in Ultra leagues, especially if the youngster supplants the veteran journeyman after the break as I expect.