Today's Fantasy Rx

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Felipe Lopez		264	64	.242	7	31	1	35	S3
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:S    T:R	0		1		3.9		3.1

An unimpressive .273/.329/.423 performance with a 25:71 BB:K in 293 AB for AAA Louisville(IL) still resulted in a return to the majors for Lopez over Ray Olmedo. Lopez only managed similar numbers with the Reds, but excelling against southpaws while rapidly improving to post a .261/.341/.450 line in the second half convinced Cincinnati to force out Barry Larkin. While we certainly don't agree with that decision, Lopez owns the skills necessary to develop into a special player. Career-best marks of a 4.16 #P/PA and 1.10 G-F combine with a passable walk rate, good defense, and switch-hitting to give him impressive long-term upside. Although expecting him to exceed double-digit value in 2005 is a mistake, a minimal investment here could result in you rostering an excellent keeper in standard leagues.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Anderson Machado		56	15	.268	0	4	3	6	S
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:S    T:R	0		0		2.6		2.6

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Machado.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Clint Barmes		71	20	.282	2	10	0	14	S2
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	0		0		1.8		1.8

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Colorado for my comments on Barmes.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cody Ransom		68	17	.250	1	11	2	13	S
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	0		0		0.1		0.1

At least Ransom managed a .316/.400/.610 in 136 AB for AAA Fresno(PCL) despite spending most of his rookie season on the Giants' bench. The middle infielder owns good patience and double-digit upside in both homers and steals, however his surprise non-tendering by San Francisco two weeks ago casts serious doubt on his long-term prospects. Don't expect Ransom to contribute to successful fantasy teams any time soon.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon E. Martinez		260	64	.246	3	30	1	22	S3
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	0		0		0.4		-1.9

Martinez picked a bad year to post the worst marks of his career as the Cubs' bench implosion helped keep them out of the playoffs. He never managed the performance boost I expected based on his improving skills during his later seasons in San Francisco, and now he enters free agency on the clear downside of his career. Only his position flexibility makes Martinez a viable Dollar Days' pickup in deeper leagues..

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Castro		299	73	.244	5	26	1	36	S3
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:R    T:R	0		1		-0.9		-2.4

The idea that Castro actually might win the Twins' starting shortstop job despite never posting an OBP above .290 ranks with the more ridiculous possibilities of the spring. Even Augie Ojeda offers more upside than the offensively inept Castro, who simply lacks the plate discipline to register a decent performance at the plate. Do not employ him as anything more than short-term roster filler as his BA will negate his meager quantitative production.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jesse Garcia		115	29	.252	1	10	1	14	S
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-3.3		-3.3

Completely failing to take advantage of his first extended stay in the majors probably ruined Garcia's shot at developing into a regular MLB reserve. He compiled an atrocious 2.98 #P/PA without adding any power or speed, and considering the Braves' relative paucity of infield depth, Garcia should receive even less time after signing with San Diego. He appears unable to help any fantasy team.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon Vazquez		115	27	.235	1	13	1	12	S
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:R	-2		-2		-1.7		-2.4

At least Vazquez managed a .300/.405/.556 performance in 180 AB for AAA Portland(PCL). He otherwise continued his descent into AAAA status with an awful year in San Diego after losing his starting job to Khalil Greene. However, he also posted a .344/.377/.469 line in 64 September at-bats after fully recovering from a strained oblique, so I see why Boston eagerly acquired the reserve infielder. He certainly possesses the skills to earn a few bucks in a limited role, and although I don't want to recommend him now, Vazquez appears a viable Dollar Days' MIF option if necessary.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex S. Gonzalez		285	64	.225	7	27	2	36	S
CHC/MON/SD		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	-2		-1		-5		-4.3

The rumored decision to block B.J. Upton and Jorge Cantu with Roberto Alomar and Gonzalez ranks among the off-season moves with the most potentially negative long-term repercussions. While Gonzalez admittedly could hit 20 homers again, his persistent contact problems leave him with an unacceptable OBP, gutting his value even at shortstop. Shifting to third base nearly guarantees Tampa less production at that position than any other team in baseball. Only fantasy owners desperate for any quantitative boost should consider risking the addition of Gonzalez's BA at any time.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Maicer Izturis		107	22	.206	1	4	4	10	S
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:S    T:R	-2		-2		-2.3		-2.3

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Montreal for my comments on Izturis.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ray Olmedo		1	0	.000	0	0	0	0	S
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:S    T:R	-2		-3		-0.1		-0.1

While Olmedo still possesses decent plate discipline and certainly could develop into a quality player thanks to the advantages provided by his youth, he simply offers nothing to your team heading into spring training. Olmedo posted a .554 OPS as Barry Larkin's replacement for a several weeks in 2003, registered a largely unimpressive .290/.346/.403 performance in 290 AB for AAA Louisville(IL) last summer, and missed half the season with right elbow problems. The youngster then completely ripped the UCL in his right elbow during the Venezuelan League in November, ending any shot at unseating Felipe Lopez in Cincinnati. Absolutely nothing here suggests that you should consider Olmedo this year.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Erickson		6	1	.167	0	0	0	0	S2
MIL Brewers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:L    T:R	-2		-3		-0.6		-0.6

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Milwaukee for my comments on Erickson.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Alfaro		11	2	.182	0	0	0	1	S
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	-2		-3		-0.9		-0.9

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Houston for my comments on Alfaro.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Freddy Sanchez		19	3	.158	0	2	0	2	S
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	-3		-3		-1.8		-1.8

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Pittsburgh for my comments on Sanchez.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Josh Labandeira		14	0	.000	0	0	0	0	S
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	-4		-4		-2		-2

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Montreal for my comments on Labandeira.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wilson Betemit		47	8	.170	0	3	0	2	S
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:S    T:R	-4		-4		-4		-4

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Atlanta for my comments on Betemit.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jerry Gil		86	15	.174	0	8	2	3	S
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 21	B:R    T:R	-4		-4		-6.7		-6.7

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Arizona for my comments on Gil.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rey Ordonez		61	10	.164	1	5	0	2	S
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	-4		-4		-4.3		-3.7

Quitting the Padres in late March rather than accepting the backup job to Khalil Greene put his big league career in jeopardy. Posting a .452 OPS in 61 AB when the Cubs called two months later then probably ended his days as a big league starter. Ordonez still could post a decent average in any given season, but his almost complete lack of upside renders him worthless in almost every fantasy league. Never risk rostering him again even if he somehow finds regular playing time, an unlikely occurrence considering he hasn't joined a team since Chicago cut him in July.

'04 Shortstop Week concludes tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Shortstops in the National League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Despite the intriguing potential of Felipe Lopez, Maicer Izturis, and Freddy Sanchez, Clint Barmes offers the most immediate fantasy upside of these shortstops given his likely undisputed starting job, an impressive AAA performance, and playing half his games in Coors. Continuing to bid on Barmes into double digits looks like a safe idea as long as he performs capably during spring training.