Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Shortstops with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Barry Larkin		346	100	.289	8	44	2	55	S
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 40	B:R    T:R	9		9		16.2		13.4

Cincinnati's decision to dump the future Hall of Famer after twenty seasons in his hometown organization ranks as the single most disgusting story of the off-season. Yes, Larkin's previous contract hurt the franchise, but he played for very little this year while posting his best numbers since 2000. Although patience and power problems will limit his value, his solid plate discipline and contact rate still make him a useful part-time starter. Hoping Felipe Lopez will develop into a quality starter simply does not warrant the Reds' treatment of Larkin. His 2005 destination will determine whether Larkin warrants more than a Dollar Days' flyer.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bill Hall		390	93	.238	9	53	12	43	S2
MIL Brewers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	6		7		-3.7		-3.7

Developing patience and power potential suggest some long-term upside for Hall, but right now he offers little more than a decent complementary speed source and a little power, accompanied by an unwelcome BA drain. The possibility of Hall remaining the primary shortstop for the Brewers both limits his fantasy value and could cause Milwaukee to rush J.J. Hardy to the majors. While spending a couple bucks on Hall as a MIF for his likely double-digit steals isn't a terrible idea, at least explore all your alternatives before investing in the risky Hall.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Craig Counsell		473	114	.241	2	23	17	59	S
MIL Brewers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:L    T:R	5		6		-1.8		-1

Returning to Arizona as the Snakes' starting second baseman necessitates Counsell bumping Scott Hairston out of the infield, increasing the outfield logjam. Counsell also doesn't appear particularly likely to post respectable numbers in a full-time role, and he only managed a .254/.345/.329 against right-handed pitchers this year. Spending more than a couple bucks in the hope of rostering a couple dozen steals isn't a terrible idea, but given Counsell's negligible power and advancing age, he also might finish with minimal overall value.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Cintron		564	148	.262	4	49	3	56	S
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:S    T:R	5		6		1		-5.8

Yes, Cintron simply performed terribly for Arizona this year. He only exceeded a .311 OBP in two months, but he also just turned 26, heads into his third full season in 2005, and dropped his ground-fly ratio to 1.24 G-F. If Cintron builds on his .343/.365/.424 September performance as I expect, he'll force himself back into the lineup over Royce Clayton or Craig Counsell. He at least should open the year as Counsell's platoon partner, and unless Troy Glaus remains healthy for a majority of the season, don't be surprised if Cintron accrues more fantasy value than anyone in Arizona's infield. He ranks as an excellent MIF target in all NL leagues.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Vizcaino		358	98	.274	3	33	1	34	S23
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:S    T:R	4		4		4.2		4.2

Staying with Houston for a fifth straight season places Vizcaino only a year away from 5-and-10 rights, a rather bizarre situation considering only established stars generally receive the opportunity to obtain that blanket no-trade clause. Of course, the Astros could dump Vizcaino any time within the next year considering his age and questionable skills, but the team's reluctance to move forward despite producing a respectable internal alternative seemingly every summer suggests Vizcaino may remain until Biggio and Bagwell retire, stealing at-bats from more qualified youngsters. With poor patience, negligible speed, and little power, only employ Vizcaino as short-term roster filler since at least he should own a passable batting average thanks to playing home games at Minute Maid.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Gonzalez		561	130	.232	23	79	3	67	S
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	4		5		0.8		6.7

Maintaining steady power production failed to offset a 24-point BA decrease that dropped Gonzalez's value a particularly worrisome amount given his falling contact rate. Even nearly posting a couple of 20/80 seasons doesn't make Gonzalez an asset to a lineup despite his defensive skills; nobody with a .270 OBP merits 50 at-bats in the majors. Only select Gonzalez if you own an exceptional BA foundation yet somehow still need more quantitative help since he even could cede playing time to Josh Wilson by the second half of 2005.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Hector Luna		173	43	.249	3	22	6	25	S
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	3		3		-0.2		-0.2

While improved overall offensive output in the second half suggests that Luna shouldn't hurt you as a endgame pick, jumping from the Texas League to St. Louis as a Rule 5 pick similarly leaves Luna vulnerable to massive inconsistency due to his broken development curve. His BA fell below .150 in April and August while staying above .275 in May, July, and September. Without even much promise of a respectable SB contribution, Luna probably needs to spend next season developing his skills in the minors rather than rotting on the respective benches of the Cardinals and fantasy teams, rendering him effectively useless for another year.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wilson Delgado		130	38	.292	2	13	1	11	S
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:S    T:R	2		1		5.3		4.4

A poor .259/.316/.356 performance in 348 AB for AAA Norfolk(IL) demonstrates why Delgado's offensive output appears far too inconsistent to trust in your lineup. Negligible power and speed leaves only batting average as a potential plus for the journeyman backup, but nothing in his statistical history suggests even a decent likelihood of him posting positive value next year regardless of his role. Signing with the Marlins further marginalizes Delgado given the veteran competition for reserve spots in Florida, so don't plan on employing him in 2005.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Bruntlett		52	13	.250	4	8	4	14	S
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	1		1		4.3		4.3

Bruntlett posted a .250/.329/.364 performance in 332 AB for AAA New Orleans(PCL). He owns almost no power, so only respectable plate discipline and some speed skills provide him with any place on spring draft lists. Expect the youngster to spend another season as Houston's AAAA infielder, only joining the Astros when injuries create a need for another glove up the middle.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Neifi Perez		381	97	.255	4	39	1	40	S2
SF/CHC		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:S    T:R	1		2		-2.8		1.9

Anybody who snagged Neifi after his move to the Cubs lucked into 62 at-bats of a .371 BA with 2 HR and a steal, numbers which at least offset his normally atrocious performance over the balance of the year. The problem is he still owns terrible skills and almost no upside, so I see basis for believing that his .948 OPS in Chicago qualifies as anything other than a sample size fluke. Do not risk drafting him in any league with the belief that a Nomar injury will result in additional playing time for Perez that will help your team. He appears perfectly capable of contributing 300 AB of a .235 BA that could cost you a couple points in the BA standings.

'04 Shortstop Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Neither Barry Larkin nor Craig Counsell looks like a terrible endgame gamble, but Alex Cintron is the player you want to target here. If he views the additions of Counsell and Royce Clayton as a challenge, he should rebound nicely, earning back a starting job and reemerging as one of the best fantasy shortstops in the league.