Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Shortstops without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pokey Reese		244	54	.221	3	29	6	32	S2
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	0		1		-10.1		-8.8

Ostensibly signed as the starting second baseman, Reese instead covered shortstop for Nomar over much of the first half, allowing Mark Bellhorn to emerge at second and thus forcing Reese to the bench once Nomar and then Orlando Cabrera joined the lineup. Of course, no less than four injuries limited Reese's playing time, including a strained rib cage muscle that nearly ended his season in July. Despite seemingly respectable skills, growing contact problems leave Reese with little offensive upside. He deserves no more than a backup job as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement right now, so although he merits MIF consideration in every draft almost no matter where he lands in 2005 due to his SB upside, don't gamble more than a few bucks on Reese.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Smith		155	37	.239	5	19	1	20	S2
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:L    T:R	0		1		-1.3		-1.3

Smith somehow remains on Detroit's 40-man roster and should enter spring training as a favorite to win a job as a reserve infielder despite struggling to a .204/.252/.352 performance after the break. Although he owns mildly intriguing power potential, awful plate discipline renders him far too risky to consider for your team in standard leagues.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kelly Dransfeldt		30	10	.333	0	4	0	5	S
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	0		0		0.1		0.1

Posting a .249/.387/.364 in 305 AB for AAA Charlotte(IL) demonstrates Dransfeldt's limitations. Despite decent power potential and defensive skills, he barely belongs at AAA, forget about the majors, so you simply cannot roster him without risking the likely qualitative damage that should accompany his limited quantitative production.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wilson Valdez		43	10	.233	1	4	1	8	S
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-2.3		-2.3

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Chicago(A) for my comments on Valdez.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Lopez		207	48	.232	5	22	0	28	S
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 20	B:R    T:R	-1		0		-6		-6

Even a respectable spring performance should result in Lopez opening the year at shortstop in an infield suddenly loaded with veterans. While adding Adrian Beltre won't help Lopez's fielding consistency, Beltre's range will let Lopez focus on a better defensive performance over a smaller area. The sophomore earned his promotion this year with a .295/.342/.505 line with 275 AB for AAA Tacoma(PCL). While he didn't demonstrate great plate discipline at any level and largely flailed in the majors, a .85 contact rate, 3.62 #P/PA, and 1.04 G-F comprise a very respectable big league skill set for someone who only turned 21 in November. However, despite dramatic long-term potential, Lopez's limited speed means we can't count on more than a few bucks of roto value from him in 2005, so only rebuilding teams should approach double-digit bids. Lopez returning to the minors for more seasoning also would not surprise me at all.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Bartlett		12	1	.083	0	1	2	2	S
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-1.4		-1.4

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Minnesota for my comments on Bartlett.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Woodward		213	50	.235	1	24	1	21	S
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-5.9		-5.2

Signing a minor league deal with the Mets today nicely positions Woodward as the logical alternative when Jose Reyes or Kaz Matsui miss time. Woodward surprisingly performed fairly well this year before hamstring problems and then a stomach ailment sabotaged his performance. Given his respectable patience and power potential, he even might regain positive value if he doesn't face too many right-handed pitchers. However, nothing here suggests any significant upside, so treating him as more than roster filler is a mistake.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jhonny Peralta		25	6	.240	0	2	0	2	S
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	B:R    T:R	-1		-2		-1.2		-1.2

Posting a .329/.386/.496 performance with 15 HR, 88 RBI, 109 R, and a 53:123 BB:K over 556 AB for AAA Buffalo(IL) resulted in Peralta winning the International League Player of the Year award. He only turns 23 next May, owns very impressive patience for a youngster, and his superior defensive skills to Brandon Phillips should lead to Peralta opening the 2005 season as Cleveland's starting shortstop. While we can't expect more than a few steals here, an improving batting average and intriguing long-term power potential make Peralta a good gamble almost anywhere in single digits.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Felix Escalona		8	0	.000	0	0	0	1	S
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-1.3		-1.3

While Escalona only saw brief playing time towards the end of the season, his .304/.365/.432 performance with a 30:56 BB:K in 437 AB for AAA Columbus(IL) suggests he should develop into a capable reserve infielder. The former Rule 5 pick unfortunately possesses scant fantast potential right now, but don't be surprised if he emerges as viable roster filler fairly soon.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alfredo Amezaga		93	15	.161	2	11	3	12	S3
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	-2		-2		-8.6		-8.6

Amezaga appears unable to manage the transition to the majors, growing progressively worse as his playing time increases in Anaheim. Moving to Colorado this month via waivers at least opens a clear path to a reserve job for him, and a strong spring even could result in a starting job. However, outside of respectable AAA plate discipline and a little speed, nothing here suggests Amezaga could manage more than an empty batting average even on the Rockies. Consider him as no more than an endgame flyer in deep leagues.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon Santiago		39	7	.179	0	2	0	8	S
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:S    T:R	-2		-2		-3.2		-3.2

Rushed to the majors by Detroit and then somehow acquired for Carlos Guillen by Seattle, Santiago now even might need a trip to AA to salvage his bat. He only compiled a .193/.286/.251 performance with a 24:31 BB:K in 243 AB for AAA Tacoma(PCL) this year. Decent patience and some speed skills simply aren't sufficient skills for him to reemerge in the majors, and until his BA rebounds, Santiago won't merit much fantasy attention in any league.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John McDonald		93	19	.204	2	7	0	17	S
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-4.2		-4.2

Another awful year for the defensive specialist somehow concluded with a trade to Toronto, where he should emerge as the primary reserve infielder next year. Of course, despite mildly intriguing improvements in his ground-fly rate, poor plate discipline and limited overall secondary skills leave McDonald almost no shot at earning positive value. Even employing him as roster filler almost always will qualify as a bad move.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cesar Crespo		79	13	.165	0	2	2	6	S
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:S    T:R	-3		-3		-7.5		-8.3

While Crespo spent the first couple months of the year in Boston, the Red Sox eventually realized that no one owning a sub-.400 OPS against all pitchers belongs in the majors. Yes, his speed skills remain strong, but an awful 0:20 BB:K and negligible power potential effectively render Crespo useless to any fantasy team.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis M. Lopez		88	16	.182	1	8	0	7	S
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:S    T:R	-3		-3		-6.5		-6.5

Registering another average under the Mendoza Line gives Lopez little chance to contribute to a roto team, but he also managed an impressive .329/.410/.524 with a 30:28 BB:K over 231 AB down the stretch for AAA Richmond(IL). However, considering he hasn't broken a .285 BA at any other stop in the past few years, expect Lopez to remain a drain on fantasy teams even if he returns to the majors in 2005 after signing with Cincinnati.

'04 Shortstop Week continues tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Shortstops in the American League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Other than Reese's speed skills, youngsters merit most of our fantasy attention today. Jhonny Peralta, Jose Lopez, Jason Bartlett, Wilson Valdez, and even Alfredo Amezaga all appear likely to win significant big league jobs during spring training. While Bartlett possesses the most immediate potential and Peralta probably owns the most long-term value, Lopez looks like a future stud and Valdez could steal a couple dozen bases in a limited role. Joining Colorado also makes Amezaga a great UT or MIF option if he breaks camp in the majors. Selecting at least one of these largely inexperienced players seems a safe gamble with intriguing upside.