Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Shortstops with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Miguel Tejada		653	203	.311	34	150	4	107	S
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	33		32		53.4		47.9

Tejada posted the best performance of his career despite nearly an across-the-board skill drop. He suffered no troublesome splits and nicely improved after the break, contributing an extremely surprising 75 RBI in both halves of the season. While I expect his production to follow his skills down slightly in 2005, the former MVP remains a good buy anywhere around $30 and appears able to anchor both roto and sim teams.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Young		690	216	.313	22	99	12	114	S
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	32		32		43		32.7

Signing a four-year contract extension at the start of the season apparently provided Young with desired stability. He switched to a tougher position to cover the loss of ARod while posting the best numbers of his career, though ironically moving to shortstop leaves him with slightly less value in many roto leagues due to the dearth of solid second basemen. My biggest concern is that he dropped from a 3.91 #P/PA to a 3.69 mark, however improving his ground-fly ratio from 1.42 to .97 translated into a significant power surge that should remain a primary skill trait. With developing walk and contact rates, Young at least appears capable of remaining near $25 indefinitely even if he seems risky if bidding heads towards $30.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Derek Jeter		643	188	.292	23	78	23	111	S
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	30		30		32.3		13.3

A return to full health resulted in an excellent fantasy season for the first-time Gold Glover. Unfortunately, he apparently exchanged patience for power, dropping to career-worst marks of a 3.52 #P/PA and a .07 walk rate, dragging down his OBP to .352, Jeter's worst performance since his 1995 debut. Yes, he owns great speed skills; combined with a career-best 1.49 G-F indicates, he easily should produce 20-20 seasons indefinitely. The problem is that Jeter's diminished plate discipline limits his BA upside, resulting in an unexpected transfer of several dollars of his value from qualitative to quantitative categories. Of course, despite his contribution shift, the Yankee veteran still merits targeting at bids anywhere short of $30 as a surprisingly underrated fantasy performer

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Guillen		522	166	.318	20	97	12	97	S
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:S    T:R	29		28		50		39.8

Perhaps the most underrated AL infielder, Guillen deserved significant down-ballot MVP consideration despite missing the last few weeks of the season after tearing his right ACL in early September. While I don't expect him to steal another dozen bases, and he technically regressed in his patience and contact abilities without compensating with a skill spike elsewhere in his stats, his dominant .348/.416/.594 performance against right-handed batters gives Guillen significant value in any league. He posted a .300 BA in every month save August, and since I view his success primarily as the logical outgrowth of incremental improvement, I expect Guillen to earn roughly $20 of fantasy value indefinitely, making him a bargain at anything shy of that mark as long as he appears relatively healthy by draft day.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Omar Vizquel		567	165	.291	7	59	19	82	S
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 37	B:S    T:R	21		21		14.8		21.4

Signing with San Francisco might result in a mild BA increase for Vizquel if he hadn't just posted his best batting average since 1999; he also turns 38 in April. The veteran shortstop owns solid plate discipline, respectable power potential, and good speed skills, but I worry about both his health and moving to the National League after 16 AL seasons. I see little reason to push any bidding towards the mid-teens since his 2004 performance looks like Vizquel's upside and a single-digit 2005 value for almost any reason wouldn't shock me.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Julio Lugo		581	160	.275	7	75	21	83	S
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	20		20		11.7		17.2

Another surprisingly underrated shortstop, Lugo will remain a starter somewhere regardless of B.J. Upton's progress. While Lugo loses significant value in sim leagues, mildly intriguing power potential and strong speed skills make him a definite roto asset, especially considering the HR upside indicated by his 41 doubles. Any improvement in his stamina even might result in an improvement over these respectable marks despite the mild downside suggested by a career-worst 3.80 #P/PA. Lugo looks like a solid option anywhere in the teens.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Uribe		502	142	.283	23	74	9	82	S23
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	19		19		20		30.5

Considering Uribe only turns 26 next July, his .283/.327/.506 performance this year looks more like a growth season than a career year. Dropping down to a career-best .83 G-F gives the youngster 30-homer potential, and his roto value could skyrocket if reverses the erosion of his speed skills. Of course, developing power threats rarely reassert their baserunning abilities; we also don't know if Uribe's new three-year deal will provide him the stability Mike Young found this year or lead to complacency. Given his age, skill trends, and second-half improvement, err towards the former with the expectation that hitting second as a full-time starter in 2005 will result in an AB spike that could shoot Uribe's value towards $30.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Omar Infante		503	133	.264	16	55	13	69	S2
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	B:R    T:R	14		14		11.3		17

Hopefully the Tigers won't let Fernando Vina's contract block Infante's continued development. The youngster enters his second full season in 2005 despite only turning 23 yesterday, and his 3.88 #P/PA and .84 G-F combine to suggest very intriguing long-term upside. While we can't count on a great BA or even everyday playing time for Infante, recognize that he possesses the skills to cruise past 20 homers and the plate discipline to gain significant very value quickly, especially if Alan Trammell lets him develop as a power threat rather than keeping Infante miscast as a leadoff hitter. He particularly looks like a good gamble in long-term keeper leagues where you'll receive the benefits from a current investment in the future All-Star.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Eckstein		566	156	.276	2	35	16	92	S
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	13		15		-3.6		3.8

Joining the Cardinals last week only provides Eckstein with a slightly worse overall hitting environment. Leading-off in front of four potential Hall of Famer in Larry Walker, Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen even might result in the Runs' spike enjoyed by Tony Womack this year. With the security of a three-year deal, Eckstein's solid on-base and speed skills could propel the scrappy veteran back over a $20 value. I see a lot to like here and won't be surprised if Eckstein produces overall numbers relatively similar to those of Cesar Izturis despite costing several dollars less than Izturis in most leagues.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cristian Guzman		576	158	.274	8	46	10	84	S
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	12		14		1.1		-11.5

Signing Cristian Guzman instantly burdens his new team with a poor offensive option who possesses less immediate promise than Maicer Izturis, shipped to Anaheim to prevent any possibility of a challenge to Guzman's job during camp. Yes, Guzman could see another .300 BA this year thanks to an improving contact rate. He also possesses potentially useful speed skills. Unfortunately, I see just as much of a chance that he'll drop into single digits rather than surge over $20. Keeping your bids shy of the mid-teens looks like the best option considering the multitude of superior options available among NL shortstops.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nomar Garciaparra		321	99	.308	9	41	4	52	S
BOS/CHC		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	12		12		19.4		18.3

Although Mr. Hamm remains an obvious injury risk, he also owns extremely strong skill across-the-board. Re-signing with the Cubs keeps him as the likely #3 hitter ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, and Derrek Lee, so Nomar should continue to finish more runs than RBI. Of course, inconsistent plate discipline and diminished speed skills sap much of his value, but he also should hit .300 indefinitely while producing solid power numbers. The main problem here is that the publicity accorded the former member of the Shortstop Trinity means that bidding will exceeded his value in the many NL leagues where he first enters the auction in the spring. I simply can't recommend staying in bidding over $25, and I doubt that ante will net you Nomar in most standard leagues.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Angel Berroa		512	134	.262	8	43	14	72	S
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	11		12		-4.4		4

Kansas City bizarrely shipped the 2003 AL Rookie of the Year to AA Wichita barely three months after signing Berroa to a four-year contract. However, perhaps invigorated by compiling a .314/.340/.510 performance in his eleven-game demotion, he posted a .321/.379/.453 line in September, boosting his second-half averages to a very respectable .289/.346/.405. The only major problem here is a ground-fly rate spike from 1.32 G-F to a 1.76 mark that limits his power potential, but he still just turns 27 in a month and enters his third big league season as a starter. Expect a strong rebound that pushes his value back over $20, although dropping out of bidding that crosses that line isn't a bad idea given Berroa's weak plate discipline and general inconsistency at the plate.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bobby Crosby		545	130	.239	22	64	7	70	S
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	7		8		5.8		5.8

With a .74 contact rate keeping his BA and OBP quite low, Crosby certainly failed to replace Miguel Tejada's numbers. However, the 2004 AL Rookie of the Year posted a 4.17 #P/PA, .11 walk rate, and a 1.12 G-F given him an excellent skill foundation, particularly with respect to his power development. Expect Crosby to suffer less fatigue next year while at least improving his poor .194/.287/.381 performance against lefties, but he also doesn't look likely to approach $20 until 2006, making him highly overrated in most standard leagues albeit a quality option in sim leagues.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Gomez		341	96	.282	3	37	3	41	S
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	7		7		0.2		-3.7

An insane series of off-season moves began with the relatively productive Gomez only landing a minor league deal with Baltimore. Philadelphia then snagged him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft a week later, and after another week of negotiations, sold Gomez back to the Orioles for the price of selecting him in the first place. So now Gomez will play for Baltimore after all, which actually offers him precious few at-bats considering the durability of Miguel Tejada, the All-Star play of Melvin Mora, and the logjam at second base with Brian Roberts, Jerry Hairston, and Mike Fontenot. His at-bats and overall performance appear likely to drop towards his 2003 numbers, leaving Gomez with only minor value as roster filler.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Valentin		450	97	.216	30	70	8	73	S
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:L    T:R	6		8		1.9		9.2

While I want to like the Dodgers' signing of Jose Valentin to platoon at third base with Antonio Perez, Valentin turned 35 in October and suffers from rapidly diminishing contact rate; moving to a much worse hitters' park is a terrible idea. He at least owns a decent overall skill set thanks to a 4.02 #P/PA and career-best .53 G-F, and not facing southpaws will boost his averages. Unfortunately for Valentin, he only held a .226/.298/.503 performance against right-handed pitchers while imploding after the break. Perhaps less playing time and a job-sharing arrangement will result in a rebound season, but after four straight BA drops since 2000, only roster Valentin at anything more than a couple bucks if you own an excellent qualitative foundation. Considering Valentin an approximate replacement for Tony Batista seems a smart move.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Willie Bloomquist		188	46	.245	2	18	13	27	S3
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	6		5		-4.1		-6.9

Despite slightly diminished value to Seattle, Bloomquist rediscovered his latent speed skills to emerge as a mildly useful fantasy player. While lowered plate discipline increases his BA risk, I see strong signs of a developing qualitative breakout. The departure of Jolbert Cabrera leaves Scott Spiezio and Bloomquist as the reserves for an infield full of health concerns, creating the potential for double-digit value here, especially if he faces fewer right-handed batters. However, until we see what specific role Bloomquist fills for the remodeled Mariners, don't treat him as anything more than a Dollar Days' flyer with a good chance to steal a dozen bases.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
B.J. Upton		159	41	.258	4	12	4	19	S
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 20	B:R    T:R	2		2		2.3		2.3

Tampa's treatment of Upton this summer seems senseless at best. The only logical conclusion to reach from management's actions is that they wanted to limit Upton's earning power by first preventing his arbitration clock from starting and then eliminating any chance of a 2005 Rookie of the Year campaign. Upton returned to the Southern League and demolished opposing pitching for a .327/.407/.471 line, supported by a 14:28 BB:K in 104 at-bats. He then nearly joined the Rays before a last-minute reversal sent him AAA Durham(IL), where he improved to a .311/.411/.519 performance in 264 at-bats. While Upton suffered from inconsistent defense, he still dominated the upper minors as a teenager before turning 20 in August. He then managed a 3.67 #P/PA, .09 walk rate, .71 contact rate, and a 1.74 G-F in the majors, not to mention obliterating left-handed pitching for a .410/.455/.557 performance in 61 at-bats, establishing a solid base of plate discipline from which he should develop into a superstar. Of course, returning to the minors to begin next season isn't a terrible idea, especially since improved defense will increase Lou Piniella's faith in his abilities, but as the most important piece of the Rays' future, Upton deserves all possible deference after fulfilling every reasonable expectation this year. He ranks as an acceptable buy into the upper teens if available on draft day due to his immediate quantitative potential and otherwise deserves serious attention in the off-season trade market of keeper leagues as the best long-term option for any rebuilding team.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Russ Adams		72	22	.306	4	10	1	10	S
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:L    T:R	2		2		5.6		5.6

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Toronto for my comments on Adams.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rich Aurilia		399	98	.246	6	44	1	49	S3
SEA/SD		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	1		3		-4.1		-7.1

Landing in San Diego following a mid-season trade helped Aurilia partially reestablish himself by posting a .254/.331/.384 performance with the Padres, only slightly down from his 2003 numbers. The former All-Star simply stopped hitting flyballs after joining the Mariners, but he fixed his skills upon returning to the National League and at least looks like a good candidate for a regular platoon next year at either position on the left side of the infield. While I can't recommend Aurilia as a primary option due to his limited upside, he shouldn't hurt you as an endgame gamble as long as he lands in a decent hitters' ballpark with a chance for relatively regular playing time.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andres Blanco		60	19	.317	0	5	1	9	S
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 20	B:S    T:R	1		1		1.8		1.8

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Kansas City for my comments on Blanco.

'04 Shortstop Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I doubt many owners realize that Carlos Guillen approached $30. If Omar Infante remains a starter, with Guillen potentially shifting to third, the two Tigers might be the best bargains at this position. Of course, both B.J. Upton and Russ Adams should enjoy starting jobs, and although Adams looks like no more than a respectable late-round option, Upton could exceed $20 thanks to his strong speed skills. Relative youngsters like Juan Uribe, Angel Berroa, and Bobby Crosby also should continue improving, and even veterans like Jeter remain undervalued in many leagues. Due to the sheer number of likely bargains here, wait until you see a likely profit before securing your primary shortstop in AL-only leagues.