Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Catchers with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Kendall		574	183	.319	3	51	11	86	C
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	23		23		23.9		20.2

Moving to Oakland creates the most upside for owners in 5x5 leagues. As long as Kendall at least echoes the .399 OBP he managed in both of the last two years, he should cruise over 100 runs. However, his declining speed skills should translate to fewer steals, though at least his career-best 4.21 #P/PA guarantees plenty of opportunities to advance on the bases. While a likely BA decline will drop his value under $20, Kendall otherwise looks like an excellent acquisition, especially if his power numbers increase as expected.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Johnny Estrada		462	145	.314	9	76	0	56	C
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:S    T:R	17		16		27.7		25.6

Hopefully Estrada's production will improve as he gains experience in the majors, but several signs here trouble me. He struggled at home, against lefties, and in the second half, slumping to a .290/.372/.410 after the break. Of course, that OBP makes him quite valuable both to the Braves and sim teams, but only a strong BA supports that average, and he lacks great contact skills. Estrada appears at risk to finish 2005 closer to a .700 OPS than the .828 he manages this year. While I generally don't advise shopping him given the limited catcher depth around both leagues, don't bid far into double-digits in spring drafts due to his downside.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Paul Lo Duca		535	153	.286	13	80	4	68	C
LA/FLO		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:R    T:R	15		15		13.7		12.8

His averages dropped in Florida despite moving to a much better hitters' park for his home games. However, while I expected Lo Duca to encounter power problems, his BA struggles again appear due to tiring down the stretch. With no significant skill development, don't spend more than $15 on Lo Duca and then deal him right after the All-Star Game.

'04 Catcher Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The only catcher here likely to turn a solid profit even on bids near $10 is J.D. Closser, who should emerge as an excellent replacement for Kendall's BA. Brian Schneider similarly remains intriguing given his developing skills and power potential. Take advantage of any chance to roster these players for less than $15, and snatch them quickly if you can add draft both under a total of $10.