Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Catchers without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Josh Paul		70	17	.243	2	10	2	11	C
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	0		0		-1.1		-1.1

Paul surprisingly spent all season at the end of Anaheim's bench, yet he barely appeared in a quarter of the Angels' games and will need a great spring to keep his job. Given his weak overall offense and minimal upside, you have no reason to roster Paul unless he rediscovers either the power or speed skills he demonstrated with the White Sox a few years ago. The likelihood of Paul spending at least part of next year in the minors leaves you with little reason to give him any fantasy consideration right now.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dan Wilson		319	80	.251	2	33	0	23	C
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	0		1		-10.8		-10.1

While Wilson unsurprisingly re-signed with Seattle, his failure to exceed a .625 OPS in any month after May makes him a very risky player. Even a 3.97 #P/PA, Wilson's best mark since his debut over a decade ago, indicates little progress at the plate due to his diminishing contact rate. Any further quantitative drop, coupled with his at-bats likely falling towards 250 thanks to the need for Miguel Olivo to start most days, will render Wilson irrelevant to fantasy teams as anything more than roster filler.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alberto Castillo		89	24	.270	1	11	0	12	C
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	0		0		0.1		0.1

Castillo heads to camp as John Buck's likely backup in Kansas City. With both Justin Huber and Mike Tonis likely to play everyday in the minors, the veteran appears set to build on the surprisingly strong .365 OBP he posted this year. A 4.26 #P/PA and 14:10 BB:K similarly support Castillo's offensive development, so although he won't contribute particularly helpful quantitative stats, he almost certainly won't hurt you either as a second catcher during Dollar Days or as roster filler during the season.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pat Borders		95	22	.232	1	10	3	9	C
SEA/MIN		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 41	B:R    T:R	0		0		-5.1		-5.1

Although Borders turns 42 next and hasn't managed decent big league numbers in even semi-regular playing time since last decade, Milwaukee signed him to a minor league contract. Of course, since he won't break camp in the majors barring an injury to Damian Miller or Chad Moeller, I highly doubt Borders will regain positive fantasy value.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dioner Navarro		7	3	.429	0	1	0	2	C
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 20	B:S    T:R	-1		-1		0.6		0.6

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: New York(A) for my comments on Navarro.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Geronimo Gil		32	9	.281	0	4	0	1	C
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-0.2		-0.2

Expect Gil to spend next season back with the Orioles despite only holding a .258/.327/.368 performance in 372 AB for AAA Ottawa(IL). While he still owns decent power potential, the likely BA drag provided by Gil severely limits his upside, so viewing him as more than roster filler looks like a mistake.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Sandy Alomar, Jr.		146	35	.240	2	14	0	15	C
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-5.8		-7.1

While Alomar only spent two weeks on the DL this year due to a groin pull in mid-August, his overall performance easily ranked as his worst output since 1991. Even moving to Texas from Chicago doesn't provide him with a markedly better hitting environment, so avoid the aged Alomar as anything more than roster filler.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Paul Phillips		5	1	.200	0	0	0	2	C
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	-1		-2		-0.5		-0.5

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Kansas City for my comments on Phillips.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Guillermo Quiroz		52	11	.212	0	6	1	2	C
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	B:R    T:R	-1		-2		-3.7		-3.7

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Toronto for my comments on Quiroz.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Rose		2	0	.000	0	0	0	1	C
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:S    T:R	-1		-2		-0.3		-0.3

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Oakland for my comments on Rose.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Greg Myers		18	4	.222	0	1	0	0	C
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	B:L    T:R	-1		-2		-0.6		-0.6

Myers missed almost the entire season due to a severely sprained left ankle, creating the playing time void that resulted in Greg Zaun winning the starting job in Toronto. Now Myers returns as Zaun's backup as the presence of both veterans will allow Guillermo Quiroz additional development time. As holding a ground-fly rate over 2.00 unfortunately limits his fantasy upside, Myers shouldn't post great numbers given his age and role, making him little more than a decent Dollar Days' option in the last rounds of your draft.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rene Rivera		3	0	.000	0	0	0	0	C
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 21	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-0.5		-0.5

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Seattle for my comments on Rivera.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Danny Ardoin		8	1	.125	0	1	0	1	C
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-0.8		-0.8

Yes, Ardoin's .308/.422/.473 performance in 237 AB for AAA Oklahoma(PCL) probably merits him an extended look in the majors, but I don't see him receiving that opportunity after signing a minor league deal with Colorado. The Rockies' catching depth should keep Ardoin at Colorado Springs all year, so although he won't hurt you if he somehow reaches the majors, he doesn't appear positioned to accrue any significant value under any circumstances.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tim Laker		117	25	.214	3	17	0	12	C
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-6.4		-6.4

Another awful performance for Laker somehow resulted in an NRI from Tampa. While he conceivably could win the backup job behind Toby Hall, and Laker's .333/.364/.412 performance against southpaws might give him a little value, a complete lack of upside renders him useless to fantasy teams. Only even employ Laker as roster filler if absolutely desperate.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Sandy Martinez		6	0	.000	0	0	0	0	C
CLE/BOS		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:L    T:R	-2		-2		-1		-1

Posting an intriguing .274/.316/.584 in 197 AB for AAA Buffalo(IL) resulted in Boston purchasing Martinez's contract from Cleveland to provide depth in September. The choice to add Martinez instead of recalling Shoppach speaks more to Shoppach's current deficiencies than providing any endorsement of Martinez. I highly doubt the veteran journeyman ever again will reach positive fantasy value.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Tonis		6	0	.000	0	0	0	0	C
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-1		-1

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Kansas City for my comments on Tonis.

40.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gerald Laird		147	33	.224	1	16	0	20	C
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-8		-8

All that concerns me here is the .307/.374/.352 performance Laird posted before a torn right thumb ligament destroyed his season in mid-May. He struggled miserably down the stretch, posting a second-half OPS of .340, and he even angered Texas management by choosing to rest his thumb instead of heading to winter ball, a decision that contributed to the Rangers' signing of Sandy Alomar. Yet while Laird now should head to AAA Oklahoma for another few months of seasoning, his combination of plate discipline, power potential, and the best hitters' park in the league should result in him earning double-digit fantasy value as soon as he earns back the Texas starting job. Consider Laird an obvious minor league pick in any league and an outstanding late-round addition if he sneaks onto the 25-man roster with a strong spring.

41.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ben Davis		193	40	.207	6	18	1	22	C
SEA/CHW		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:S    T:R	-2		-2		-9.5		-7.3

Davis enters his eighth big league season next spring despite only turning 28 in March. However, the second overall pick in 1995, selected ahead of Kerry Wood, Todd Helton, Geoff Jenkins, Matt Morris, and Roy Halladay, remains one of the biggest busts in draft history due to his consistently poor production. Shifting to Chicago with Freddy Garcia only resulted in a mild improvement, and even though Davis should begin 2005 as the starting catcher for the White Sox, weak plate discipline continues to limit his upside. Although he certainly merits a couple of bucks in most leagues since an everyday job playing time will result in double-digit homers, don't draft Davis unless you can absorb the BA hit he regularly delivers.

42.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rob Bowen		27	3	.111	1	2	0	1	C
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:S    T:R	-3		-3		-2.7		-2.7

Only multiple injuries in Minnesota resulted in Bowen's promotion, and while his offensive upside still intrigues me, his .197/.292/.345 performance in 249 AB for AA New Britain(EL) indicates he needs a couple more years in the minors. Bowen needs to demonstrate more than impressive patience before I can recommend him in any league.

43.		AB	H	BA	//R	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike DiFelice		25	3	.120	0	2	0	3	C
DET/CHC		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	-3		-3		-2.7		-2.7

Compiling a meager .269/.307/.387 performance in 238 AB for AAA Toledo(IL) indicates that DiFelice no longer merits a regular big league job. Signing with the Marlins might result in him winning the backup spot from Matt Treanor, but with poor skills and no upside, DiFelice doesn't belong on any fantasy team under almost any circumstnaces.

44.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Keith Osik		25	2	.080	0	0	0	0	C
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	-3		-3		-3.8		-3.8

Osik's failure to reach even a .675 OPS at any stop since his 2000 season in Pittsburgh indicates that he simply can't help MLB or fantasy teams. Don't risk rostering him anywhere even if he somehow wins a big league job in 2005.

45.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Henry Blanco		315	65	.206	10	37	0	36	C
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	-3		-2		-14.5		-13.8

The two-year contract awarded Blanco by the Cubs, ostensibly to resume his previous service as Greg Maddux's personal catcher, ranks with the worst moves of the off-season. He failed to post a .165 BA in three months this summer, and even decent patience and power potential don't make him an asset to Chicago or any fantasy. You simply cannot risk rostering Blanco in any league that counts batting average.

46.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brook Fordyce		151	31	.205	2	9	0	14	C
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	-4		-3		-9.7		-12

Fordyce's career-worst production might force him out of the majors for the first time in a decade. While he still owns some power potential, his general inconsistency and limited upside won't make him an asset to any team, so even if he snags a job in 2005, he won't belong on any fantasy team as more than short-term roster filler.

47.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ken Huckaby		50	7	.140	0	0	0	4	C
TEX/BAL/TEX		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	-4		-4		-5.2		-5.2

While his .276/.317/.402 performance in 127 AB for AAA Oklahoma(PCL) makes him an acceptable injury replacement, Huckaby never should earn regular at-bats in the majors and similarly can't contribute positively to any fantasy team. Expect him to see no more than a couple dozen at-bats in any future season.

48.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Cash		181	35	.193	4	21	0	18	C
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	-4		-3		-11.7		-11.7

Cash may own outstanding defensive skills, but dealing him to Tampa for Chad Gaudin qualifies as an absolute coup for the Blue Jays. A little power potential and patience simply seem unlikely to translate into strong offensive numbers, which even might leave Cash behind both Toby Hall and Tim Laker in the competition for playing time on the Rays. Since leaving Toronto also might cause further degradation in Cash's offensive output, do not roster him in any league.

49.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Robert Machado		73	11	.151	1	3	0	5	C
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	-4		-4		-7.3		-7.3

No evidence exists that Machado can translate his .317/.368/.484 performance in 126 AB for AAA Ottawa(IL) into anything more than an average BA in the majors. Don't risk employing Machado as anything more than short-term roster filler until you see some sign of improvement in his overall production.

'04 Catcher Week continues tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Catchers in the American League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While I like the upside of several youngsters listed above, only Gerald Laird appears ready to excel in the majors. With good plate discipline, definite power potential, and a cushy starting spot waiting for him upon his complete recovery from the torn thumb ligament that effectively destroyed his season in May, he could approach double-digit value in 2005 with any luck.