Today's Fantasy Rx

2004 Minor League Rule Five Draft Review

Teams can keep their selections at any level. AAA players cost $12,000 each, and AA players cost $4,000 each.

Of the 60 players elected last season, only Eric Valent played in the majors, although over a dozen additional players posted decent minor league numbers and could develop into serviceable big leaguers. Ryan Costello(MIL from TOR), Tydus Meadows(TEX from KC), Eudy Morel(COL from SD), William Collazo(ANA from ATL), Luis Jimenez(LA from BAL), Darwin Soto(SEA from SD), Kurt Keene(PHI from TOR), Shawn Sonnier(OAK from CHC), Pete Zoccolillo(TEX from MIL), Danny Sandoval(COL from CHW), Alex Pelaez(ANA from SD), Beau Dannemiller(LA from COL), Edgar Gonzalez(TEX from TB), Anthony Medrano(MON from CHC), Peter Bauer(FLO from TOR), Richard Bartlett(LA from BAL), and Somer Gonzalez(MON from ARI) each performed well at no less than one minor league level.

Pick Rating Scale: Excellent/Good/Acceptable/Questionable/Poor.

Triple-A Phase, Round One

Kansas City: Chris DeMaria, Reliever, PIT.
8-3 and 10 Saves on a 101:20 K:BB in 79.2 IP over 40 G
with 62 H, 5 HR, and a 2.94 ERA for A Hickory(SAL).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R . DeMaria exploded into full-season ball this year and now owns career marks of 164:34 K:BB in 157.2 IP with 132 H and 14 HR. While relatively old for A-ball, his overall dominance makes DeMaria no less than quality organization filler and potentially a useful big league reliever.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2008.
Quality of pick: Excellent.

Seattle: Aaron Rifkin, 1B, NYY.
118/468 for .252/.321/.462 with 23 HR, 82 RBI, 62 R, 4/5 SB%,
and a 49:118 BB:K for AA Trenton(EL).
Brief bio: 25, B:L, T:L. Essentially repeating his 2003 season makes Rifkin a somewhat pointless selection since he doesn't appear ready for AAA. Given the limited upside suggested by his production, I don't expect Seattle to realize noticeable long-term benefits from adding him.
Upside/ETA: AAAA backup by 2008.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Montreal: Victor Prieto, Starter, SEA.
Sold to Boston.
0-8 on a 19:33 K:BB in 26.2 IP over 9 GS(10G)
with 32 H, 1 HR, and a 13.16 ERA for A Greensboro(SAL).
0-0 on a 0:4 K:BB in 0.1 IP over 1 G
with 3 H, 0 HR, and a 189.00 ERA for A- Jamestown(NYP).
0-3 on an 8:16 K:BB in 14.1 IP over 4 GS(5G)
with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 4.40 ERA for R Marlins(GCL).
Brief bio: 21, B:R, T:R. The interest of both the Red Sox and Expos in Prieto shocks me. A 7.1 career walk rate indicates Prieto possess little control, so unless he somehow harness his stuff after likely eventually moving to the bullpen, he even might never reach AA.
Upside/ETA: AA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Poor.

Milwaukee: Landon Stockman, Reliever, CLE.
2-1 on a 20:7 K:BB in 22 IP over 16 G
with 16 H, 0 HR, and a 1.23 ERA for A+ Kinston(Car).
1-2 and 2 Saves on a 29:11 K:BB in 25.2 IP over 18 G
with 23 H, 3 HR, and a 4.21 ERA for I Amarillo(Central).
Brief bio: 25, B:R, T:R. Detroit unsurprisingly cut the ineffective Stockman a year ago. He charged back into affiliated ball with good dominance at Amarillo, and then capitalized on his new opportunity to pitch great at Kinston. Although his previous failures make Stockman likely to peak at AAA, he at least appears serviceable at the moment.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2008.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Toronto: Lee Gronkiewicz, Reliever, CLE.
0-0 on a 0:0 K:BB in 1 IP over 1 G
with 0 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).
1-4 and 20 Saves on a 68:21 K:BB in 65.1 IP over 52 G
with 65 H, 5 HR, and a 3.03 ERA for AA Akron(EL).
Brief bio: 26, B:R, T:R. Not protecting Gronkiewicz definitely surprises me given his career 234:70 K:BB in 216.1 IP while progressing upward one level each year. The nondrafted free agent now appears on the cusp of the majors and probably even merited some consideration as part of the Major League Rule 5 draft. I see little reason why Gronkiewicz shouldn't emerge as a useful member of a big league bullpen later this decade.
Upside/ETA: Major league reliever by 2007.
Quality of pick: Excellent.

Colorado: Keith Ramsey, Starter, CLE.
1-1 on a 5:2 K:BB in 10 IP over 2 GS
with 11 H, 1 HR, and a 3.60 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).
10-4 on a 95:34 K:BB in 137.2 IP over 23 GS(24G)
with 139 H, 19 HR, and a 3.86 ERA for A+ Kinston(Car).
Brief bio: 24, B:L, T:L. Southpaw starters with outstanding control should not be available even from an organization with the Indians' pitching depth. Of course, heading to Colorado offers Ramsey little opportunity for advancement given his weak dominance. He needs the protection of a forgiving park and strong defense to flourish, so while the Rockies deserve props for adding an interesting young pitcher, Ramsey appears very unlikely to succeed in Coors.
Upside/ETA: AAAA starter by 2008.
Quality of pick: Good.

Tampa Bay: Jean Machi, Starter, PHI.
2-2 on a 39:10 K:BB in 41.1 IP over 7 GS(9G)
with 29 H, 0 HR, and a 2.18 ERA for R- Tronconero(VSL).
Brief bio: 21, B:R, T:R. Posting his best marks to date in a fourth Venezuelan Summer League campaign gives Machi some upside even if he didn't impress in two previous tours in the States. However, while I won't fault Tampa for adding a live arm, Machi probably won't see much time above A-ball.
Upside/ETA: AA reliever by 2010.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

New York Mets: Henry Owens, Reliever, PIT.
3-4 and 4 Saves on a 49:26 K:BB in 54.2 IP over 39 G
with 46 H, 4 HR, and a 4.28 ERA for A+ Lynchburg(Car).
Brief bio: 25, B:R, T:R. Given his developing control and solid strikeout rates, Owens probably deserved a shot at AA this year. He slightly regressed at Lynchburg, although his overall effectiveness certainly gives him respectable long-term upside. I see little downside to this pick.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Pittsburgh: Richard Acosta, Reliever, BAL.
1-2 on a 26:7 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 17 G
with 29 H, 3 HR, and a 4.94 ERA for A Delmarva(SAL).
3-0 and 1 Save on a 22:6 K:BB in 22.1 IP over 11 G
with 21 H, 1 HR, and a 4.03 ERA for R- Aberdeen(NYP).
Brief bio: 20, B:R, T:R. Acosta jump-started his slow ascent up the minor league ladder by conquering both short-season A-ball and the Sally League with fairly dominant performances. Don't be surprised to see him open next year in the Carolina League as I expect Acosta to remain effective into the highest levels of the game.
Upside/ETA: Major league reliever by 2010.
Quality of pick: Good.

Cincinnati: Eric Lohse, Reliever, MIN.
1-1 on a 13:11 K:BB in 25 IP over 4 GS(7G)
with 29 H, 5 HR, and a 5.04 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).
3-4 on a 46:15 K:BB in 53.2 IP over 33 G
with 50 H, 3 HR, and a 3.52 ERA for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R. Despite leaving little left to prove in Fort Myers, stumbling at AA makes Lohse a weak gamble right now. Yes, he could develop into a serviceable reliever, but the abrupt strikeout rate drop definitely concerns me.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Cleveland: Neomar Flores, Starter, TOR.
6-10 on a 79:36 K:BB in 118 IP over 23 GS(27G)
with 151 H, 15 HR, and a 5.72 ERA for A+ Dunedin(FSL).
Brief bio: 22, B:R, T:R. Flores failed to improve while repeating the Florida State League and even posted worse skill ratios nearly across-the-board. Although I won't challenge the merits of adding a starter here, I don't expect Flores to emerge as a useful option.
Upside/ETA: AAAA swingman by 2009.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Chicago White Sox: Ryan Warpinski, Starter, FLO.
0-0 on a 2:0 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 3 G
with 6 H, 1 HR, and a 1.93 ERA for A Jupiter(FSL).
5-4 on a 46:23 K:BB in 57.2 IP over 12 GS(13G)
with 61 H, 5 HR, and a 4.21 ERA for A Greensboro(SAL).
Brief bio: 23, B:R, T:R. Shoulder problems cost him all of 2003, but he nicely rebounded this year to post respectable numbers as an A-ball starter. While he needs to develop better control, Warpinski the 2002 eighth round pick possesses more upside than most players drafted here.
Upside/ETA: AAAA starter by 2008.
Quality of pick: Good.

Philadelphia: Chris Gomez, SS, BAL.
96/341 for .282/.337/.346 with 3 HR, 37 RBI, 41 R, 3/5 SB%,
and a 28:41 BB:K for Toronto.
Brief bio: 33, B:R, T:R. Selecting Gomez mere days after he signed a minor league deal with the Orioles is a cheap move, but adding the veteran journeyman also might provide an inexpensive solution to the Phillies' need for infield depth. Yes, he owns negligible power and speed, however improving plate discipline at least makes him mildly useful. Teams rarely possess the opportunity to acquire a big league starting shortstop, albeit a mostly ineffective one, in this draft.
Upside/ETA: Major league reserve in 2005.
Quality of pick: Good.

San Diego: Arturo Lopez, Reliever, LA.
5-4 on an 83:30 K:BB in 86.2 IP over 7 GS(29G)
with 88 H, 11 HR, and a 4.78 ERA for A Columbus(SAL).
Brief bio: 21, B:L, T:L. Losing a live-armed lefty like Lopez hurts the Dodgers, especially since he could develop into a capable starter. While I instead expect Lopez to emerge as a capable reliever, his combination of dominance and youth intrigues me.
Upside/ETA: Major league reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Excellent.

Texas: Juan Pascual, Reliever, BAL.
1-2 on a 38:8 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 3 GS(14G)
with 37 H, 3 HR, and a 3.96 ERA for R+ Bluefield(Appy).
Brief bio: 22, B:R, T:R. One good season in Rookie-ball hardly impresses me, especially given his control problems throughout four years at even lower levels. His failure to progress through the system failures forces me to frown on Pascual's long-term upside
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2010.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Chicago Cubs: Travis Ezi, OF, FLO.
54/242 for .223/.312/.322 with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 45 R, 19/26 SB%,
and a 28:76 BB:K for A+ Jupiter(FSL).
1/9 for .111/.111/.111 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:5 BB:K for R Marlins(GCL).
Brief bio: 23, B:S, T:L. After the pillaging sustained by the Cubs during the Major League phase of the draft, Ezi hardly qualifies as adequate compensation. The prospect obtained from the Dodgers for Juan Encarnacion a year ago looks unlikely even to hold respectable AA averages.
Upside/ETA: AAA backup by 2008.
Quality of pick: Poor.

Oakland: Victor Moreno, Reliever, MIN.
1-0 on a 12:6 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 6 G
with 12 H, 1 HR, and a 6.35 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).
7-2 on an 86:42 K:BB in 75.1 IP over 5 GS(33G)
with 56 H, 4 HR, and a 2.27 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).
Brief bio: 25, B:R, T:R. Moreno originally joined Minnesota in the 2002 Rule 5 draft, and now heads to Oakland with some potential to emerge as a dominant reliever. His skill trends look strong, so if he continues cutting his walk rate, Moreno could reach the majors as soon as September.
Upside/ETA: Major league reliever by 2007.
Quality of pick: Excellent.

Houston: Blake Allen, Reliever, CLE.
5-4 on a 51:21 K:BB in 56.2 IP over 23 G
with 60 H, 5 HR, and a 4.61 ERA for A Lake County(SAL).
Brief bio: 23, B:L, T:L. An unimpressive second tour of the Sally League shouldn't earn Allen a promotion in the spring, and pitchers who require three seasons at the lowest level of full-season ball rarely emerge as useful upper-level contributors.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2011.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Minnesota: Jan Granado, Starter, CIN.
4-4 and 1 Save on a 39:17 K:BB in 65 IP over 8 GS(18G)
with 85 H, 6 HR, and a 5.40 ERA for A+ Potomac(Car).
1-4 and 2 Saves on a 44:14 K:BB in 49.2 IP over 8 GS(13G)
with 52 H, 5 HR, and a 4.53 ERA for A Dayton(Mid).
Brief bio: 22, B:L, T:L. Hopefully his likely shift to relief will result in greater effectiveness for Granado since he seems to lack the skills necessary to succeed as a starter above A-ball. He at least don't look like a bad pick-up at this time.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Good.

Boston: Antonio Granadillo, 3B, STL.
12/51 for .235/.264/.294 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:11 BB:K for A- New Jersey(NYP).
53/168 for .315/.413/.565 with 10 HR, 30 RBI, 40 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 22:37 BB:K for R+ Johnson City(Appy).
Brief bio: 20, B:S, T:R. His strong performance in his first year in the States caught the eye of Boston management, allowing them to stick it to the Cardinals again by grabbing an interesting, switch-hitting infield prospect. Of course, his struggle above Rookie-ball make Granadillo unlikely to develop into more than a organization filler, but his combination of power and plate discipline hints at a promising future.
Upside/ETA: AAAA backup by 2011.
Quality of pick: Good.

New York Yankees: Hairo Solis, Reliever, SF.
3-2 and 2 Saves on a 42:9 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 22 G
with 22 H, 1 HR, and a 3.25 ERA for R Giants(AZL).
Brief bio: 20, B:R, T:R. Perhaps Solis' performance might seem more impressive if he hadn't posted these numbers in this third tour of the Arizona Rookie League. Until he demonstrated decent dominance and control in A-ball, he merits little attention at all.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

St. Louis: Matt Demarco, 2B/3B, SEA.
98/359 for .273/.319/.384 with 4 HR, 45 RBI, 47 R, 1/6 SB%,
and a 20:51 BB:K for AA Carolina(SL).
19/57 for .333/.424/.474 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 8 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 6:9 BB:K for A+ Jupiter(FSL).
Brief bio: 24, B:L, T:R. Managing marginally respectable AA averages should secure Demarco an extended minor league career. While his meager quantitative output leaves him with little long-term upside, he at least improves Seattle's organizational depth, albeit adding little noticeable value to the team.
Upside/ETA: AAA backup by 2008.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Triple-A Phase, Round Two

Kansas City: Brennan King, 3B, LA.
132/480 for .275/.330/.421 with 13 HR, 47 RBI, 61 R, 1/7 SB%,
and a 30:109 BB:K for AA Jacksonville(SL).
Brief bio: 23, B:R, T:R. King looked like an excellent long-term prospect two years ago when he posted a .271/.361/.372 with a 58:48 BB:K in 435 AB at Jacksonville. Now he appears unable even to reach AAA, so although I consider this selection a solid move for the Royals given their questionable cadre of minor league infield prospects, King shouldn't develop into more than a decent utilityman.
Upside/ETA: Major league reserve by 2008.
Quality of pick: Good.

Seattle: Aaron Herr, 2B, ATL.
77/283 for .272/.341/.431 with 7 HR, 32 RBI, 37 R, 7/10 SB%,
and a 28:88 BB:K for AA Greenville(SL).
Brief bio: 23, B:R, T:R. Grabbing the 40th overall pick from 2000 qualifies as a decent coup even if Herr's poor plate discipline makes him an unimpressive prospect. However, developing power and overall average improvement should insure he at least spends some time as a big league backup.
Upside/ETA: Major league reserve by 2008.
Quality of pick: Good.

Montreal: Edgar Gonzalez, 3B, TEX.
115/397 for .290/.355/.436 with 8 HR, 55 RBI, 58 R, 6/8 SB%,
and a 36:84 BB:K for AA Frisco(TL).
Brief bio: 26, B:R, T:R. Selected from Tampa Bay in this draft only a year ago, Gonzalez remained an effective hitter in his first AA season. I mainly question exposing him to the draft due to the potential effect on little brother Adrian's attitude in Texas, but at least Edgar doesn't appear likely to develop into more than a capable bench player.
Upside/ETA: Major league reserve by 2008.
Quality of pick: Good.

Milwaukee: Juan Cerros, Reliever, CIN.
2-5 and 1 Save on a 47:38 K:BB in 71.1 IP over 6 GS(30G)
with 63 H, 8 HR, and a 3.15 ERA for AAA Louisville(IL).
Brief bio: 28, B:R, T:R. Milwaukee breaks the string of quality AA infielders by grabbing Cerros, who only debuted in the majors in 2003 but possesses relatively little long-term upside due to limited dominance. He only slightly improves the Brewers' upper-level pitching depth.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever in 2004.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Colorado: Chris Steinborn, Starter, DET.
8-11 on a 105:37 K:BB in 160.1 IP over 27 GS
with 173 H, 7 HR, and a 3.99 ERA for A West Michigan(Mid).
Brief bio: 22, B:L, T:L. A 36th round pick in 2002, Steinborn finished moving to the rotation this year and emerged as a useful minor league starter. Of course, strikeout and hit rate problems severely limit his upside, so don't expect him to develop into anything more than a mildly capable swingman in the upper minors.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Tampa Bay: John Raburn, SS/OF, MIL.
77/314 for .245/.323/.312 with 1 HR, 23 RBI, 38 R, 16/24 SB%,
and a 37:53 BB:K for AA Huntsville(SL).
Brief bio: 25, B:S, T:R. Raburn's averages dropped an unfortunate amount upon his departure from A-ball. He similarly no longer owns great patience or speed skills, rendering him largely useless as more than a potential reserve.
Upside/ETA: AAAA backup by 2009.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Pittsburgh: Felipe Garcia, Reliever, DET.
0-2 on a 10:8 K:BB in 12 IP over 7 G
with 18 H, 0 HR, and a 6.00 ERA for A+ Lakeland(FSL).
2-0 on a 22:9 K:BB in 23 IP over 14 G
with 12 H, 1 HR, and a 0.39 ERA for R Tigers(GCL).
Brief bio: 22, B:R, T:R. With Garcia unlikely to challenge for a big league roster spot this decade, grabbing him adds little to the Pirates' organization, especially given his 2004 move to the bullpen. His potential to emerge as a dominant reliever barely warrants his selection here.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2010.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Cincinnati: Rick Asadoorian, OF, TEX.
8/42 for .190/.306/.262 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 7 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 6:13 BB:K for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).
66/229 for .288/.328/.450 with 3 HR, 27 RBI, 28 R, 9/9 SB%,
and a 13:60 BB:K for AA Frisco(TL).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R. I hoped that Jim Bowden's departure from the Reds might result in Cincinnati slowing their acquisition of toolsy outfielders, especially ones like Asadoorian with no discernible upside. Perhaps he could emerge as a big league reserve, but nothing in his statistical history, particularly his terrible plate discipline, suggests that this pick benefits the Reds.
Upside/ETA: AAAA backup by 2007.
Quality of pick: Poor.

Chicago White Sox: Sean Smith, OF, PIT.
6/23 for .261/.292/.304 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 1:6 BB:K for A+ Lynchburg(Car).
26/95 for .274/.355/.484 with 0 HR, 9 RBI, 20 R, 8/9 SB%,
and an 8:15 BB:K for A Hickory(SAL).
40/170 for .235/.289/.388 with 4 HR, 24 RBI, 27 R, 18/19 SB%,
and a 12:41 BB:K for A- Williamsport(NYP).
Brief bio: 22, B:R, T:R. Although adding a Joliet resident at least provides Chicago with another hometown prospect, Smith appears unlikely to see much time above AA. He possesses little power, speed, and long-term upside.
Upside/ETA: AAA backup by 2010.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Florida: Luke Lockwood, Starter, MON.
3-17 and 1 Save on an 86:30 K:BB in 136.1 IP over 19 GS(33G)
with 168 H, 20 HR, and a 4.95 ERA for AA Harrisburg(EL).
Brief bio: 23, B:L, T:L. An extended history of excellent control allowed Florida to overlook Lockwood's ineffectiveness and awful record. I suspect the Marlins might move the southpaw to the bullpen in an attempt to address an organizational deficiency, however only lower hit and homer rates will result in Lockwood succeeding in the majors.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2007.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

San Diego: Christian Herrera, SS, PIT.
17/85 for .198/.268/.279 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 15 R, 1/1 SB%,
and an 8:21 BB:K for A+ Lynchburg(Car).
22/78 for .282/.356/.346 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 8 R, 5/8 SB%,
and a 7:20 BB:K for A- Williamsport(NYP).
Brief bio: 22, B:R, T:R. I fail to see what interests the Padres here. Other than marginally decent patience, he owns little plate discipline, no power, and weak speed skills. Considering his sub-.240 career BA despite never reaching AA, Herrera probably never will spend much time above A-ball.
Upside/ETA: AA backup by 2006.
Quality of pick: Poor.

Texas: Vince Harrison, 3B, TB.
49/184 for .266/.372/.402 with 5 HR, 27 RBI, 21 R, 5/8 SB%,
and a 24:34 BB:K for AA Montomgery(SL).
72/256 for .281/.399/.484 with 11 HR, 42 RBI, 46 R, 8/13 SB%,
and a 45:49 BB:K for A+ Bakersfield(Cal).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R. Developing power, plate discipline, and even decent speed make Harrison an extremely intriguing prospect. As the third 3rd baseman selected by the Rangers from the Rays in the last three seasons, he at least replaces Edgar Gonzalez, selected nine picks earlier, and could emerge as a quality big league starter, one of the only players selected here with that distinction. I currently expect Harrison to merit some fantasy consideration as soon as next summer if he continues improving.
Upside/ETA: Major league starter by 2009.
Quality of pick: Excellent.

Chicago Cubs: Brad Stiles, Reliever, KC.
2-2 on a 13:15 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 21 G
with 30 H, 0 HR, and a 4.55 ERA for A+ Wilmington(Car).
2-1 and 2 Saves on a 27:9 K:BB in 28 IP over 13 G
with 27 H, 2 HR, and a 2.57 ERA for A Burlington(Mid).
Brief bio: 23, B:L, T:L. Selecting Stiles was a poor attempt by the Cubs to compensate for the loss of Andy Sisco in the Major League phase of this draft by stealing a pitcher back from the Royals. His failure even to remain effective in his fourth tour of Wilmington suggests Stiles will peak no higher than AAA, so I see little benefit resulting from his addition to Chicago.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2011.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Oakland: Andrew Beattie, OF, PHI.
104/347 for .300/.381/.438 with 6 HR, 43 RBI, 51 R, 8/12 SB%,
and a 47:67 BB:K for AA Chattanooga(SL).
Brief bio: 26, B:S, T:R. Solid plate discipline and improved AA production clearly caught he eye of Oakland management, making Beattie a probable addition to Sacramento's quest to repeat their PCL title. While he shouldn't develop into more than a part-time reserve in the majors, Beattie at least looks like excellent depth for the Athletics.
Upside/ETA: Major league reserve by 2008.
Quality of pick: Good.

Houston: Nick Bourgeois, Starter, PHI.
5-11 on a 97:68 K:BB in 120.1 IP over 21 GS(26G)
with 122 H, 14 HR, and a 4.94 ERA for A+ Clearwater(FSL).
Brief bio: 24, B:L, T:L. A fourth round pick only in 2002, an across-the-board skill drop left him available here. However, considering Bourgeois still qualifies as a young southpaw with significant upside, especially if move to the bullpen, I really like this pick-up for the Astros.
Upside/ETA: Major league reliever by 2010.
Quality of pick: Good.

Minnesota: Armando Gabino, Starter, CLE.
0-1 on a 12:5 K:BB in 19 IP over 4 GS(5G)
with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 4.26 ERA for R+ Burlington(Appy).
Brief bio: ??, B:R, T:R. Despite overall stats that appear somewhat similar to those of Angel Garcia, the first selection in the Major League phase of this draft, Gabino likely lacks Garcia's upside. However, he also didn't post bad numbers in his first year in the States, making him a decent organizational replacement for Garcia in Minnesota.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2011.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

St. Louis: Jose Garcia, Starter, TEX.
4-7 on a 51:26 K:BB in 72 IP over 12 GS(22G)
with 104 H, 11 HR, and a 7.00 ERA for A+ Stockton(Cal).
2-2 on a 40:13 K:BB in 46.2 IP over 9 GS
with 37 H, 4 HR, and a 2.89 ERA for A Clinton(Mid).
Brief bio: 23, B:R, T:R. The former Yankee prospect's progress abruptly stopped in Stockton as his hit rate skyrocketed. However, extended success in the lower levels of the New York system at least gives him respectable long term upside.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2010.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Triple-A Phase, Round Three

Kansas City: Cesar Herrera, Reliever, TEX.
8-3 and 6 Saves on a 63:26 K:BB in 86.1 IP over 3 GS(44G)
with 89 H, 4 HR, and a 3.65 ERA for A Clinton(Mid).
Brief bio: 23, B:R, T:R. Given Herrera's improved skills following his move to relief, he at least soon should reach AA. While he may not see the majors any time soon, his respectable command makes him a decent choice.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Seattle: Kervin Jacobo, 3B, SD.
110/457 for .241/.299/.376 with 11 HR, 55 RBI, 53 R, 12/19 SB%,
and a 34:171 BB:K for A+ Lake Elsinore(Cal).
Brief bio: 22, B:S, T:R. Committing 35 errors in 121 games and posting a contact rate of only .63 might make Jacobo the worst prospect chosen here. Other than some of hint of power potential, I see no indication he even should play above A-ball.
Upside/ETA: AA backup by 2008.
Quality of pick: Poor.

Montreal: Doc Brooks, OF, ARI.
13/46 for .283/.353/.435 with 0 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:13 BB:K for AA El Paso(TL).
100/301 for .332/.401/.561 with 15 HR, 47 RBI, 67 R, 7/14 SB%,
and a 30:82 BB:K for A+ Lancaster(Cal).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R. In the most interesting twist of the draft, the Expos chose Brooks one pick after Seattle grabbed Kervin Jacobo; San Diego traded Brooks to Arizona for Jacobo on May 21, 2003. Of course, while Jacobo possess negligible potential as a prospect, Brooks at least might contribute above A-ball after finally smacking the ball in the California League. He should develop into a quality upper-level reserve.
Upside/ETA: AAAA backup by 2009.
Quality of pick: Good.

Tampa Bay: T.A. Fulmer, Starter, SEA.
0-0 and 2 Saves on a 4:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 3 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for AAA Tacoma(PCL).
0-2 on a 31:12 K:BB in 30.2 IP over 4 GS(9G)
with 33 H, 2 HR, and a 5.58 ERA for AA San Antonio(TL).
6-7 on an 86:21 K:BB in 96 IP over 17 GS
with 109 H, 7 HR, and a 5.16 ERA for A+ Inland Empire(Cal).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R. Fulmer compiled a 9-8 record and a 130:37 K:BB in 168 IP over 27 starts for a 2.58 ERA for A Wisconsin(Mid) in 2003. Yes, he lost effectiveness this year, but he still owns intriguing control and dominance. Giving up on a quality A-ball pitcher looks like an obvious mistake for Seattle, and I expect Fulmer to emerge as a contributor in a big league bullpen.
Upside/ETA: Major league reliever by 2008.
Quality of pick: Excellent.

Florida: Alejandro DeAza, OF, LA.
87/341 for .255/.346/.352 with 4 HR, 45 RBI, 63 R, 24/34 SB%,
and a 38:54 BB:K for A Columbus(SAL).
Brief bio: 20, B:L, T:L. DeAza possesses sufficient speed and plate discipline to merit some attention but not enough long-term potential to cause heartache for the Dodgers upon losing him. Nothing in his stats suggests he should develop into a solid upper-level player.
Upside/ETA: AAA backup by 2009.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Chicago Cubs: Jon Searles, Reliever, MON.
3-3 on a 27:25 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 30 G
with 45 H, 8 HR, and a 5.05 ERA for AA Harrisburg(EL).
4-0 and 4 Saves on a 23:9 K:BB in 28.1 IP over 19 G
with 12 H, 0 HR, and a 1.59 ERA for A+ Brevard County(FSL).
Brief bio: 23, B:R, T:R. Obtained by the Expos with Chris Young for Matt Herges two years ago, Searles slow ascent up the minor league ladder leaves him unlikely to reach the majors any time soon. Searles looks like another weak pick for the Cubs on a dark day for the organization.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2010.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Houston: Wes O'Brien, Reliever, CHC.
0-1 and 1 Save on a 23:6 K:BB in 20.1 IP over 16 G
with 11 H, 1 HR, and a 1.33 ERA for A Lansing(Mid).
Brief bio: 22, B:R, T:R. Consistent progress through the minors until this year makes O'Brien a respectable prospect even after missing over half the season. He at least should remain effective through AA before encountering any serious struggles.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Good.

Minnesota: Julio Guerrero, Reliever, PIT.
4-8 and 1 Save on a 59:19 K:BB in 96 IP over 12 GS(33G)
with 125 H, 12 HR, and a 5.63 ERA for A+ Lynchburg(Car).
Brief bio: 23, B:R, T:R. Moving back to the bullpen at least should solve Guerrero's hit rate problems. However, his outstanding control might allow him to contribute in the upper minors even when pitching in front of a bad defense. He merits watching, especially if maintains the strong command often demonstrated by unsung Twins' prospects.
Upside/ETA: Major league reliever by 2010.
Quality of pick: Good.

Triple-A Phase, Round Four

Tampa Bay: Richard de los Santos, Starter, CLE.
1-5 on a 45:19 K:BB in 51.1 IP over 9 GS(13G)
with 53 H, 2 HR, and a 5.26 ERA for A- Mahoning Valley(NYP).
Brief bio: 20, B:R, T:R. Two straight years of ineffective pitching for de los Santos despite decent skills cause me to doubt his long-term prospects. Ascending above AA ranks as an unlikely accomplishment for the youngster.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2011.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Florida: Josh Teekel, Starter, STL.
9-6 on a 96:57 K:BB in 142 IP over 25 GS(26G)
with 134 H, 7 HR, and a 3.93 ERA for A+ Palm Beach(FSL).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R. The Cardinals' sixth round pick in 1999 required four seasons of development before reaching full-season ball, but after two very respectable seasons, Teekel now appears ready for AA. While diminished dominance might force him to the pen, he should reach the majors in a couple more years.
Upside/ETA: Major league reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Good.

Triple-A Phase, Round Five

Tampa Bay: Brett Wayne, Reliever, LA.
0- on a 12:8 K:BB in 10 IP over 5 G
with 12 H, 3 HR, and a 9.00 ERA for A+ Vero Beach(FSL).
2-4 and 5 Saves on a 71:31 K:BB in 67.2 IP over 27 G
with 45 H, 7 HR, and a 2.66 ERA for A Columbus(SAL).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R. Wayne completed his conversion to the mound this year, demonstrated impressive dominance and decent command in his first full season as a professional pitcher. Although only harnessing his control will allow Wayne to contribute above A-ball, losing this intriguing youngster eventually could hurt the Dodgers.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Good.

Double-A Phase, Round One

Kansas City: Jared Price, C, LA.
41/170 for .241/.303/.418 with 6 HR, 22 RBI, 26 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 14:51 BB:K for A Columbus(SAL).
Brief bio: 22, B:R, T:R. The Royals addressed another organizational weakness by adding this young catcher, especially since the Dodgers' seventh round pick in 2000 easily posted the best marks of his career in 2004. However, his repeated offensive failures over the past four years makes Price an unlikely candidate to continue developing after slipping back to the Sally League following two tours of the Florida State League.
Upside/ETA: AAA backup by 2010.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Montreal: Jim Kavourias, OF, FLO.
6/54 for .111/.155/.185 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:26 BB:K for AA Carolina(SL).
17/111 for .153/.223/.252 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 10 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 10:41 BB:K for A+ Jupiter(FSL).
2/10 for .200/.438/.500 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:3 BB:K for R Marlins(GCL).
Brief bio: 25, B:R, T:R. The Marlins' fifth round pick in 2000 barely appears capable of contributing in A-ball, forget about the higher levels of the system. He offers no obvious upside to the Expos.
Upside/ETA: AAA backup by 2008.
Quality of pick: Poor.

Toronto: Milton Tavarez, Reliever, BOS.
1-4 and 5 Saves on a 63:26 K:BB in 63.1 IP over 47 G
with 69 H, 2 HR, and a 4.55 ERA for A Augusta(SAL).
Brief bio: 22, B:R, T:R. Enjoying a third season in the Sally League, even one spent evolving into a reasonably effective reliever, simply doesn't impress me, especially given Tavarez's inconsistent control. While he offers some upside, he appears unlikely to emerge as more than upper-level roster filler.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Tampa Bay: Jhonny Rivera, OF, CHW.
20/84 for .238/.253/.369 with 1 HR, 9 RBI, 14 R, 1/3 SB%,
and a 2:16 BB:K for R+ Great Falls(Pio).
Brief bio: 21, B:R, T:R. With awful plate discipline and negligible power and speed skills, Rivera might never reach full-season ball. He adds nothing to an organization loaded with promising outfielders.
Upside/ETA: AA backup by 2009.
Quality of pick: Poor.

Philadelphia: Jared Blasdell, Reliever, CHC.
0-1 on a 2:5 K:BB in 1.2 IP over 1 G
with 1 H, 0 HR, and a 10.80 ERA for AAA Iowa(PCL).
2-4 and 2 Saves on a 60:43 K:BB in 60 IP over 49 G
with 59 H, 8 HR, and a 4.80 ERA for AA West Tenn(SL).
0-0 on a 5:0 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 2 G
with 3 H, 0 HR, and a 5.79 ERA for A+ Daytona(FSL).
Brief bio: 25, B:R, T:R. At least Blasdell remains fairly dominant, but continued control problems makes him a high-risk pick. He shouldn't see much time in the majors at any point.
Upside/ETA: AAAA reliever by 2008.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Boston: Steve Langone, Reliever, LA.
No 2004 stats.
Brief bio: 25, B:R, T:R. Tommy John surgery cost Langone all of this year, but he managed a 68:24 K:BB in 82.2 IP with 59 H and 0 HR for AA Jacksonville(SL) over the previous two seasons, as well as brief appearances for both AAA Las Vegas and R Dodgers(GCL) in 2003. If healthy, Langone appears ready to return to AAA, where he soon could challenge for a spot in a big league bullpen.
Upside/ETA: Major league reliever by 2008.
Quality of pick: Excellent.

St. Louis: Justin Knoff, Reliever, CIN.
1-1 on a 14:6 K:BB in 17.1 IP over 5 G
with 18 H, 1 HR, and a 2.08 ERA for A Dayton(Mid).
0-0 on a 9:4 K:BB in 9.2 IP over 6 G
with 8 H, 0 HR, and a 1.86 ERA for R+ Billings(Pio).
Brief bio: 23, B:R, T:R. Limited experienced at least makes Knoff somewhat mysterious, and he could continue developing into a decent option. However, his failure to accumulate more than 140 innings over the last three years suggests he'll peak at a fairly low level.
Upside/ETA: AA reliever by 2008.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Double-A Phase, Round Two

Montreal: Dan J. Kolb, Reliever, MIL.
3-3 and 3 Saves on a 75:44 K:BB in 83 IP over 37 G
with 91 H, 9 HR, and a 5.42 ERA for A+ High Desert(Cal).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R. Milwaukee loses their second Dan Kolb in two weeks, although his ineffectiveness even after converting to relief almost extinguishes his prospect status. I see little reason for the Expos to gamble on him at this time.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2008.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Tampa Bay: Phil Wilson, Reliever, ANA.
3-9 on a 75:58 K:BB in 109.1 IP over 16 GS(38G)
with 132 H, 15 HR, and a 6.50 ERA for A+ Rancho Cucamonga(Cal).
Brief bio: 23, B:R, T:R. The Angels' third round pick in 1999 missed most of 2003 due to injury. His failure to reemerge as a promising youngster this year pushes him into the Rays' system, although I still don't see Wilson contributing in the majors any time soon.
Upside/ETA: AAA reliever by 2009.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Philadelphia: Josh Carter, OF, SD.
20/89 for .225/.258/.292 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, 1/4 SB%,
and a 3:16 BB:K for AA Mobile(SL).
101/331 for .305/.345/.396 with 1 HR, 41 RBI, 38 R, 4/8 SB%,
and a 17:41 BB:K for A+ Lake Elsinore(Cal).
Brief bio: 24, B:R, T:R. Two strong seasons at Lake Elsinore at least make Carter likely to reach AAA in the near future, but his weak quantitative output doesn't suggest a future in the majors. He ranks as little more than organization filler right now.
Upside/ETA: AAAA backup by 2010.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Double-A Phase, Round Three

Montreal: Dan DeMent, OF, TB.
86/336 for .256/.318/.443 with 8 HR, 34 RBI, 45 R, 1/3 SB%,
and a 30:82 BB:K for AA Montgomery(SL).
Brief bio: 26, B:R, T:R. At least DeMent added some power in his second tour of the Southern League, but his move to the outfield, combined with a stagnant batting average, leaves me little hope of further progress. He offers no more than meager upside to the Expos.
Upside/ETA: AAAA backup by 2009.
Quality of pick: Questionable.

Double-A Phase, Round Four

Montreal: Marcus Nettles, OF, SD.
34/138 for .246/.302/.283 with 0 HR, 9 RBI, 18 R, 7/10 SB%,
and an 8:42 BB:K for AA Mobile(SL).
55/203 for .271/.327/.315 with 0 HR, 7 RBI, 32 R, 15/19 SB%,
and a 16:44 BB:K for A+ Lake Elsinore(Cal).
Brief bio: 24, B:L, T:L. Another weak outfield choice ends the draft on a sour note since Nettles barely appears capable of maintain decent averages in the California League. I don't expect him ascending the minor league ladder much further after these expected AA struggles.
Upside/ETA: AAA backup 2008.
Quality of pick: Poor.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Chris Gomez almost certainly will spend next season in the majors, but as usual, few other players selected in these Rule 5 phases will contribute any time soon. Lee Gronkiewicz, Victor Moreno, Brennan King, Edgar Gonzalez, Vince Harrison, Andrew Beattie, and T.A. Fullmer each possess the skills necessary to succeed at a high level of play, but expecting any of them even to debut in the big leagues in 2005 looks like a mistake.