Today's Fantasy Rx

2004 Major League Rule Five Draft Review

We firmly believe that the Rule 5 draft is a great chance to add depth to your roster by targeting position players from AAA or AA to fill roles like backup catcher, utility infielder, and reserve outfielder. Teams also should target pitchers who spent 2004 at least at high-A to work in long relief or as lefty specialists. Given our preference for selecting one backup position player and then two pitchers, one right-hander and one southpaw, if we were drafting, we believe few teams took this opportunity seriously this year.

Round One

Arizona: Angel Garcia, Starter, MIN; 21, B:R, T:R.
Sold to Tampa Bay for $100K.
2-0 on an 8:5 K:BB in 10 IP over 1 GS(5G)
with 10 H, 2 HR, and a 6.30 ERA for A Quad Cities(Mid)
0-0 on a 9:3 K:BB in 8 IP over 1 GS(6G)
with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for R Twins(GCL)
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 45%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up man.
Fantasy Potential: With only 10 innings above rookie ball and a career walk rate of 4.9 BB/9, even the projectability of a 6'7" fireballer with a 10.4 career strikeout rate doesn't warrant jumping him to the majors, not to mention paying for that "privilege". Garcia could develop into a top reliever, but considering he needed Tommy John surgery only a little over a year ago, he definitely should not contribute to any fantasy team in 2005.

Kansas City: Andy Sisco, Starter, CHC; 21, B:L, T:L.
4-10 on a 134:65 K:BB in 126 IP over 25 GS(26G)
with 118 H, 11 HR, and a 4.21 ERA for A+ Daytona(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: The Cubs foolishly exposed the 6'9" former second round pick while protecting Jose Macias, Henry Blanco, and Neifi Perez. While I recognize that Sisco needs much more development time - he broke his pitching hand punching a wall early in the 2003 season - he also registered a 9.6 K/9 this year. He possesses the potential to blossom into a star in almost any role, so although he won't contribute to fantasy teams in 2005 and easily could post a 6.00 ERA on a 50:50 K:BB in 50 IP, Chicago will regret losing Sisco for nothing.

Montreal: Tyrell Godwin, OF, TOR; 25, B:L, T:R.
132/521 for .253/.326/.355 with 6 HR, 40 RBI, 85 R, 42/54 SB%,
and a 52:110 BB:K for AA New Hampshire(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Fifth outfielder and pinch-runner.
Fantasy Potential: Godwin doesn't even compare favorably to Endy Chavez, who doesn't deserve to start over Terrmel Sledge or Ryan Church. Of course, given Jim Bowden's disastrous moves thus far, don't be surprised if he deals Brad Wilkerson or Nick Johnson for a proven closer while giving the left field job to Godwin. However, while the speedster appears unlikely to hold decent averages, Chavez's 32 steals this year helped thousands of teams, and a late-round flyer in Godwin could result in a double-digit value.

Milwaukee: Marco Carvajal, Reliever, LA; 20, B:R, T:R.
Sold to Colorado for 2 PTBN or $75K.
0-0 on a 2:2 K:BB in 3 IP over 1 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for AA Jacksonville(SL).
4-2 and 1 Save on a 72:35 K:BB in 73 IP over 36 G
with 50 H, 2 HR, and a 1.88 ERA for A Columbus(SAL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up man.
Fantasy Potential: At least Carvajal owns a good track record and excellent dominance for a young reliever. Unfortunately, his lack of upper-level experience leaves him unlikely to pitch effectively under the best of circumstances, and spending home games at Coors Field ranks among the worst option for any pitcher. Due to his control problems, Carvajal merits no fantasy consideration even if he lands in a more favorable scenario by Opening Day.

Colorado: Matt Merricks, Starter, LA; 22, B:L, T:L.
1-3 on a 27:11 K:BB in 22 IP over 5 GS(6G)
with 26 H, 4 HR, and a 4.91 ERA for AA Greenville(SL).
5-3 on a 67:24 K:BB in 73.1 IP over 12 GS(13G)
with 61 H, 4 HR, and a 3.31 ERA for A+ Myrtle Beach(Car).
2-2 on a 16:10 K:BB in 26 IP over 5 GS(6G)
with 30 H, 2 HR, and a 3.12 ERA for A+ Vero Beach(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Selecting Merricks looks like a Javier Lopez redux for the Rockies. He potentially could dominate in relief but continues to suffer from control problems, rendering Merricks useless to fantasy teams right now even if he begins the season on a big league team that doesn't play home games at Coors.

Baltimore: Luke Hagerty, Starter, CHC; 23, B:R, T:L.
Traded to Florida for a PTBN.
0-2 on a 5:9 K:BB in 9 IP over 3 GS(4G)
with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 12.00 ERA for A- Boise(NWL).
0-1 on a 7:5 K:BB in 13.2 IP over 3 GS(4G)
with 13 H, 0 HR, and a 2.63 ERA for R Cubs(AZL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Hagerty simply possesses too much long-term upside not to land somewhere for the season, and the Marlins' lack of lefties ready to contribute in the majors makes Hagerty an acceptable second option. While Tommy John surgery cost him most of the last two seasons, the 6'7" southpaw won't contribute to fantasy teams in 2005 but should return to the majors in a couple of years as dominant starter. Allowing Hagerty, Andy Sisco, and Justin Jones to depart the organization over the last few months transforms the Cubs' formerly excellent depth of high-upside left-handers into an extremely troubling weakness.

Philadelphia: Shane Victorino, OF, LA; 24, B:R, T:R.
47/200 for .235/.278/.335 with 3 HR, 20 RBI, 28 R, 7/9 SB%,
and an 11:37 BB:K for AAA Las Vegas(PCL).
96/293 for .328/.375/.584 with 16 HR, 43 RBI, 70 R, 9/16 SB%,
and a 20:64 BB:K for AA Jacksonville(SL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Fifth outfielder and pinch-runner.
Fantasy Potential: Trading speed for power without even maintaining decent plate discipline renders Victorino largely useless to fantasy teams. While he appears somewhat likely to open the year Doug Glanville's role, Philadelphia will likely add a veteran outfielder, perhaps even re-signing Glanville, and thereby exiling Victorino back to Jacksonville. Unless he unexpectedly steals a few early bases, I see no reason to roster Victorino.

Oakland: Tyler Johnson, Reliever, STL; 23, B:S, T:L.
2-2 and 4 Saves on a 77:37 K:BB in 56.1 IP over 53 G
with 48 H, 4 HR, and a 4.79 ERA for AA Tennessee(SL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 60%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: While Johnson suffers from control problems, his dominance intrigued Oakland, who can keep him at the back of the bullpen after allowing Chris Hammond to leave and dealing Arthur Rhodes in the Jason Kendall deal. Johnson even might managed positive value in limited innings, but he simply looks like too big of a WHIP risk to roster in fantasy leagues.

Minnesota: Ryan Rowland-Smith, Reliever, SEA; 21, B:L, T:L.
5-3 and 3 Saves on a 119:30 K:BB in 99.2 IP over 12 GS(29G)
with 107 H, 10 HR, and a 3.79 ERA for A+ Inland Empire(Cal).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Adding a dominant young lefty isn't a bad move by the Twins given their relative lack of successful upper-level southpaws. Rowland-Smith continued developing this year, registering the best marks of his career since his 2001 debut despite spending half the season in the 66ers' rotation. While drafting him in any league is a mistake, he possesses just enough upside to warrant monitoring his progress since he could emerge as respectable roster filler during the summer.

Los Angeles: D.J. Houlton, Starter, HOU; 25, B:R, T:R.
12-5 on a 159:47 K:BB in 159 IP over 28 GS
with 141 H, 14 HR, and a 2.94 ERA for AA Round Rock(TL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever and spot starter.
Fantasy Potential: Considering Houlton again ranked as one of the most impressive pitchers in the Texas League, joining the Dodgers give him an excellent opportunity to contribute in the majors immediately. Los Angeles can deploy Houlton without worrying about him allowing too many runs given their forgiving home park and excellent defense. Even a Dollar Days' gamble on Houlton on draft day doesn't appear entirely unwarranted considering his long-term upside and this ideal fit with the Dodgers.

Boston: Adam Stern, OF, ATL; 24, B:L, T:R.
127/394 for .322/.378/.480 with 8 HR, 47 RBI, 64 R, 27/37 SB%,
and a 35:58 BB:K for AA Greenville(SL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Fifth outfielder and pinch-runner.
Fantasy Potential: Boston selected Stern as insurance against the likely trade of Dave Roberts. Stern owns somewhat similar skills, albeit noticeably less steals that make him worth no more than an Ultra flyer even in very deep leagues. I don't expect him to finish the summer with the Red Sox, but if given the opportunity, Stern possesses the capability to surprise by approaching double-digit value in a limited role on the strength of a decent BA and a dozen or more steals.

Round Two

Montreal: Tony Blanco, OF/1B-R, CIN; 23, B:R, T:R.
54/220 for .245/.300/.445 with 12 HR, 31 RBI, 25 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 15:53 BB:K for AA Chattanooga(SL).
66/216 for .306/.403/.588 with 17 HR, 47 RBI, 42 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 27:66 BB:K for A+ Potomac.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: 25th man.
Fantasy Potential: Selecting Blanco and then signing Wil Cordero qualifies as perhaps the most superfluously redundant pair of transactions in recent memory. Of course, Jim Bowden first traded for Blanco with the Reds apparently still believes he'll develop into a capable big leaguer. Yet the ability to play all four corner positions means nothing considering his weak plate discipline and unimpressive overall offensive skill. Nothing in Blanco's stats suggests he belongs above AA, so even if he breaks camp in the majors, don't expect him to remain with his new club more than a week after Bowden cedes his position to a permanent GM.

I'll continue tomorrow with the minor league phase of the 2004 Rule 5 draft.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Teams only took 12 players this year, returning to 2001 levels after drafting 20 players in 2003 and 28 the year before. Of the 20 selected in 2003, 7 remained active with their new teams for the majority of the season while one more, David Mattox, spent all year on the DL. Jose Bautista shifted from Baltimore to Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and then returned to Pittsburgh as part of the Kris Benson trade, netting the Royals Justin Huber for just a waiver grab. Talley Haines, Jason Grilli, and Willy Taveras also stayed with their new teams after spring training trades. Luis Gonzalez and Jeff Bennett probably rank as the most immediately useful players selected, however Hector Luna contributed to a pennant winner and Chris Shelton still looks like a superb choice despite an effectively wasted season considering he destroyed AFL pitching.

Almost no team this year followed the route of the Rockies, Brewers, Red Sox, and a few other teams who targeted older prospects capable of contributing immediately in the majors. D.J. Houlton easily looks like the best choices to help teams now, followed by Tyler Johnson and Adam Stern; these three players join perhaps the three most sabermetrically-inclined organizations in the game. Andy Sisco, Luke Hagerty, and Houlton rank as the most promising long-term picks as Kansas City and Florida landed the players most likely to develop into the next Johan Santana.