Today's Fantasy Rx

To analyze the 2004 statistical trends in the five traditional hitting categories of HR, RBI, BA, SB, and Runs, I'll discuss each stat within a league context. I won't spend a significant amount of time focusing on this area, but I'd like to get an idea of how the 2004 category leaders rank against past seasons. We're already going over our keeper teams, and we'd like to know if we need to place additional importance on any particular categories.

First, we'll examine the skills of the average hitter in each league over the last five seasons.

AL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.61	.11	.82	69%	.276/.349/.443
2001	.50	.09	.81	71%	.267/.344/.428
2002	.51	.09	.82	68%	.264/.329/.424
2003	.52	.09	.82	70%	.267/.333/.428
2004	.52	.10	.82	69%	.270/.336/.433

NL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.56	.11	.80	69%	.266/.342/.432
2001	.48	.10	.80	66%	.261/.331/.425
2002	.52	.10	.80	68%	.259/.328/.410
2003	.51	.10	.81	69%	.262/.332/.417
2004	.51	.10	.80	72%	.263/.329/.423

Notwithstanding a slight drop in NL OBP, offense continued improving in both leagues for the second straight season. The shocking jump in the stolen base success rate of NL batters seems mostly due to teams seeking high-percentage opportunities since no obvious trend appears among individual base stealers. Yes, Scott Podsednik, Bobby Abreu, and three months of Carlos Beltran partially skewed the trend, Ivan Rodriguez departed for the AL, and weak-armed youngsters like Victor Martinez and Johnny Estrada assumed starting jobs. The result of this change is that each roto team likely netted an extra couple of steals this year, but unless you owned an emerging stud like Podsednik or Ryan Freel, I doubt the change significantly affected your team. Aside from steals, 2004 looks most similar to 2001; only another MLB-ordered strike zone change could bump walk rates and averages back to 2000 levels.

Before continuing, here are the raw counting numbers for the last four years.

AL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	78547	11995	2688	11418	1297
2001	78164	11013	2506	10508	1647
2002	77788	10892	2464	10271	1236
2003	78311	11033	2499	10505	1279
2004	78731	11358	2605	10814	1253

NL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	88743	12976	3005	12317	1626
2001	88100	12186	2952	11580	1456
2002	87794	11516	2595	10961	1514
2003	88426	11945	2708	11381	1293
2004	88622	12018	2846	11434	1336

Today's Fantasy Rx: Fifty players reached double-digits in both homers and steals in 2003, and forty-seven players matched that feat this season. Among the five speedsters who swiped 40 or more bases, only Juan Pierre failed to smack eleven homers. While Pierre and Ichiro also contribute significantly in Runs and BA, making them worth lofty bids, bidding into double-digits for a significant BA source that lacks much power appears increasingly questionable every year. Nine players reached the 20/20 level while another nine managed a 15/15 season. Nabbing a couple of guys like Milton Bradley, Rocco Baldelli, Reggie Sanders, and Lew Ford provides better category balance than approaching $20 for Dave Roberts, Ryan Freel, or anyone who lacks the significant secondary skills that guarantee everyday at-bats and consistent SB production.