Today's Fantasy Rx

While I excerpted much of this introduction and the quotes from Rotosirens' articles in previous seasons, all the player discussion is brand new.

Tell me, Muse, of the man of many ways,
     who was driven
far journeys, after he had sacked
     Troy's sacred citadel.

As tools' goofs without the necessary baseball skills enter into organizations under the camouflage of glowing scouting reports, every fantasy owner can tell tales of terrible trades in which Yoo-Hoo dreams disappeared. So many players repeatedly tantalize you, forcing you to overpay for them during the season before immediately reverting into rotting pumpkins after the midnight transaction deadline. If we wanted to establish an award for these teases, we'd name it after Larry Walker due to his fascinating combination of five-category MVP talents, nearly a decade spent in Coors Field, and annual nagging injuries. When healthy, he ranks at the top of nearly any player list, but like the mandatory discounting of pitchers on draft day due to the higher DL risk, Walker's auction price usually appears at least 20% lower than we'd otherwise expect in most leagues.

In looking over the dramatically inconsistent players this season, the players we've owned obviously jump out at me, although owning over a dozen teams certainly forces us to keep track of essentially every major leaguer. While plenty of players deserve recognition here, I'm limiting discussion to those who at least started great before slumping badly, excelled after stumbling out of the gate, or who alternated slumps with hot streaks throughout the season.

You will come first of all to the Sirens,
     who are enchanters
of all mankind and however comes their way;
     and that man
who unsuspecting approaches them,
     and listens to the Sirens
singing, has no prospect of coming home
     and delighting
his wife and little children as they stand
     about him in greeting,
but the Sirens by the melody of their singing
     enchant him.

While Scott Podsednik and Carl Crawford headed towards the roto stratosphere by completely dominating a single category, Chone Figgins and Ryan Freel similarly emerged as quality alternatives. Of course, while most of these youngsters maintained their output all season, Brian Roberts failed to match early expectations. Despite securing Baltimore's second base job due to Jerry Hairston's two severe injuries, Roberts only truly helped owners that rostered him at the beginning of the season. His failure to contribute consistently in any category save runs also damaged his trade value as the year progressed:

		AB	BB:K	SB%	BA		
April		95	8:10	7/9	.305
May		98	11:9	11/12	.235
June		106	15:18	4/6	.236
July		104	10:15	3/6	.279
August		107	17:19	1/5	.346
September	114	9:23	1/1	.246

Roberts stole seven bases against the White Sox and two versus the Indians during the first two weeks of May. With his strong plate discipline and batting average, he appeared ready to emerge as the next Luis Castillo. Instead he only managed another ten steals over the remaining four-and-a-half months of season. Although kept walking regularly, inconsistent contact rates left him with negligible BA value for any owner who bought high in May. A terrible September makes Roberts no more than a marginal target in any league next year, and bidding much into double digits appears marginally wise only in 5x5 leagues. Unless Roberts hid a second-half injury, we can't expect him to steal more than a dozen bases in 2005.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The seven speedsters who swiped seven or more bases in April all will finish among the top dozen or so SB leaders at season's end. Conversely, only three of the eight sluggers with 8+ April homers will finish among the top 20 in homers, and four of the thirteen sluggers with 20+ April RBI will finish among the top 20 RBI leaders. While the BA leaderboard showed even less correlation between April and now than the power categories, Runs seemed slightly more in line with the SB trends. I don't see many obvious conclusions to draw from this data, however players who demonstrate significant SB production very early in the season appear at least slightly more likely to remain among the SB league leaders all season than anyone who posts great power numbers in April.