Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our final in-season AL LPR rankings of 2004, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the end of the article for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through September 22nd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.

1
2ABCXYZ - Curt Schilling(24535)
AX - Freddy Garcia(03434)
A - Bronson Arroyo(01533)

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(5452445534)
abcxyz - Tom Gordon(3344454553)
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(2333433334)
x - Trever Miller(4543453255)

Miller's second tour at the top tier coincides with Kevin Gregg's unsurprising drop. While neither Miller nor Timlin should add much to any team over the next week, neither pitcher should hurt you.

2
3ABCYZ - Pedro Martinez(44321)
3BCYZ - Roy Halladay(25300)
3BXYZ - Mark Mulder(24230)
ABCYZ - Tim Hudson(43024)
BCY - Kevin Brown(13235)
BY - Esteban Loaiza(32003)
CY - Sidney Ponson(44342)
B - Mike Mussina(44555)
c - Scott Schoeneweis(24040)

3bcxyz - Alan Embree(4343543443)
3bcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim
3acz - Arthur Rhodes(4332442352)
Bxz - Scot Shields(2520433443)
abcxz - Jeremy Affeldt(2354545335)
Travis Harper(4534532324)

I don't expect Kansas City to provide Affeldt with much competition as closer in the spring. His success over the past few weeks should solidify his relatively new role.

3
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(3454453353)
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4523544224)
abcyz - Chad Bradford(4444243304)
bcy - Damaso Marte(2503542224)
cxz - Ricardo Rincon(4313330054)
cyz - Buddy Groom(3345124432)

A
BXYz - Johan Santana(44455)
Xby - Jake Westbrook(54534)
X - Bobby Madritsch(44342)
Nate Robertson(54034)
Terry Mulholland(43324)

Westbrook and Robertson both own the skills necessary to remain among the league's top starters next year. Consider them both very valuable keepers if you own them near the minimum.

b - Dennys Reyes(5215013423)

B
C - Javier Vazquez(04042)
Y - Joel Pineiro(23404)
Jose Contreras(53003)
Cliff Lee(42020)
Eric DuBose(32300)

Michael Tejera(522)

C
YZ - Tim Wakefield(52020)
Z - Derek Lowe(55350)
Z - Mark Buehrle(33231)
b - Mickey Callaway(000)
x - Rodrigo Lopez(35134)
Bartolo Colon(04540)

Miguel Batista(425)

X
Ryan Drese(33533)

Although Texas starters still scare me, Drese's success makes him a quality option in any league even for teams looking towards next season.

Z
Orlando Hernandez(44402)

Despite the recent fall-off, Hernandez appears quite solid and a good option in any league over the next ten days.

a
bcxyz - Scott Williamson(5454544434)
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(2355344345)
bcxyz - Eddie Guardado(3534443310)
bcxy - Brian Shouse(4544154543)
bcxy - Brendan Donnelly(5343544233)
bcyz - Jason Grimsley(5542204434)
bcx - Jim Mecir(5253343335)
cxz - J.C. Romero(4354333244)
cxz - Bob Wickman(3333453452)
bx - B.J. Ryan(4344442353)
xy - Francisco Rodriguez(5445533454)
xz - Jorge Julio(5331333504)
c - Mike Myers(4444442334)
x - Joe Nathan(4455445443)
x - Rafael Betancourt(5434543544)
x - Juan Rincon(5343555454)
x - John Halama(4154433244)
x - Matt J. Miller(5343324443)
x - Bob Howry(2324533542)
x - Carlos Almanzar(2313343534)
Todd Williams(4334454442)
Esteban Yan(5344525224)

Although Betancourt's recent save doesn't increase the odds of him emerging as a closer next year, his dominance and overall consistency makes him a good keeper anywhere under $5. Esteban Yan similarly should remain strong in a late-inning role.

b
c - Kelvim Escobar(52555)
Kirk Saarloos(43030)

cxz - Ugueth Urbina(3433454132)
cyz - Paul Quantrill(4432331333)
cz - Troy Percival(4444244543)
xy - Danys Baez(3342445234)
c - Jeff Nelson(2233522445)
y - Curtis Leskanic(5225443552)
y - Mike MacDougal(505225434)
y - David Riske(0324325335)
y - Rafael Soriano(424332)
y - Derrick Turnbow(3334)
John Parrish(2224244452)
Bobby Seay(4531421243)
Mark Malaska(3332411433)

c
z - Mark Hendrickson(00343)
z - Brian Anderson(22121)
Carlos Silva(43434)

xz - Chris Hammond(3333533234)
yz - Terry Adams(5333332532)
x - Ron Villone(3231235555)
z - Cliff Politte(3523434343)
z - Rick White(2032225353)
z - Steve Karsay(34235)
z - Omar Daal
Justin Speier(3433434532)
Julio Mateo(5244322134)

x
Scott Atchison(5332434544)
Jesus Colome(4334344330)
Erasmo Ramirez(1334535243)
Jason Frasor(2244233354)
Shingo Takatsu(3222345533)

Atchison belonged in the majors possibly even two years ago, so his success now doesn't surprise me. While he shouldn't see many save opportunities, he could help many fantasy teams as a middle reliever.

z
Jaime Cerda(2153431512)

AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jarrod Washburn(24434), Jeremy Bonderman(24534), Brad Radke(34440), Rich Harden(35044), Jon Lieber(34433), Mike Maroth(35134), and Kenny Rogers(33303).

Other decent relievers include Shawn Camp, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, J.J. Putz, Ramiro Mendoza, and Jason Davis.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings

We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With only a little over a week remaining in the regular season, consider cutting any expiring contracts or pitchers with questionable schedules in favor of qualitative protection or keepable youngsters. The safest likely available relievers include Trever Miller, Alan Embree, Brian Shouse, Jim Mecir, Mike Myers, Matt J. Miller, Todd Williams, Scott Atchison, and Shawn Camp. Intriguing youngsters worth targeting include Mike Wood, Chris Young, Kyle Denney, Denny Bautista, Jorge Sosa, Neal Cotts, Joe Blanton, J.D. Durbin, Jesse Crain, Franklin Nunez, and Jason Davis.