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September
3rd
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 AL LPR through 22 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the end of the article for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through September 1st. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2ABCYZ - Curt Schilling(22542)
A - Bronson Arroyo(43350)

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(3545544545)
abcxyz - Tom Gordon(4553442332)
abcxyz - Mike Timlin(0243244423)

Schilling replaces Gregg, although barring a major surprise, we won't finish the year with more than six pitchers at this level. Rivera's increasing dominance also should please anyone worried about his heavy workload this year.


2
3ABCXYZ - Pedro Martinez(44234)
3ABCYZ - Roy Halladay(52530)
3BXYZ - Mark Mulder(33332)
3bcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(400)
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(44434)
BCY - Kevin Brown(51323)
BY - Esteban Loaiza(33200)
CY - Sidney Ponson(35224)
B - Mike Mussina(32044)
c - Scott Schoeneweis(24040)

3bcyz - Alan Embree(3344433543)
3acz - Arthur Rhodes(5421243324)
Bxz - Scot Shields(5522532520)
bcz - Jeremy Affeldt(3245433235)
a - Travis Harper(3345442453)


3
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4344345245)
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(3433434334)
abcyz - Chad Bradford(4243444300)
bcxy - Damaso Marte(3023055425)
cxz - Ricardo Rincon(2334033344)
cyz - Buddy Groom(2343233451)


A
BXYz - Johan Santana(45454)
X - Bobby Madritsch(54344)
X - Freddy Garcia(43403)
Nate Robertson(00455)
ab - Dennys Reyes(5132552150)
Terry Mulholland(3253320242)

While Santana should cruise to the Cy Young, Madritsch now looks like a fantastic keeper in most leagues. Robertson also appears past his struggles and prepared to resume registering dominant performances on a regular basis.


B
C - Javier Vazquez(23130)
Y - Joel Pineiro(23404)
Jose Contreras(44425)
Cliff Lee(24042)
Eric DuBose(32300)


C
XZ - Mark Buehrle(43333)
YZ - Tim Wakefield(23425)
Z - Derek Lowe(34525)
b - Mickey Callaway(000)
x - Rodrigo Lopez(44123)
Bartolo Colon(31343)
Miguel Batista(12024)


X
David Bush(43323)


Z
Orlando Hernandez(53324)


a
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(4555544342)
bcxyz - Scott Williamson(2235545454)
bcxyz - Eddie Guardado(3534443310)
bcxy - Brian Shouse(3443343445)
bcxy - Brendan Donnelly(4425345353)
bcx - Jim Mecir(4532435552)
cxz - Bob Wickman(4255535333)
cxz - J.C. Romero(5233444432)
bx - B.J. Ryan(2444531344)
xy - Francisco Rodriguez(4544423345)
xz - Jorge Julio(3434444442)
c - Mike Myers(4544545003)
x - John Halama(4543341544)
x - Joe Nathan(5534143344)
x - Matt J. Miller(4354433353)
x - Rafael Betancourt(3332543554)
x - Bob Howry(5343545123)
x - Carlos Almanzar(4442421231)
x - Ramiro Mendoza(3352321434)
Juan Rincon(4325222534)


b
c - Kelvim Escobar(55035)
y - Jake Westbrook(34245)
Kirk Saarloos(43030)

cxz - Ugueth Urbina(3433454132)
cyz - Jason Grimsley(5325432233)
cyz - Paul Quantrill(3002344124)
cz - Troy Percival(5453324444)
xy - Danys Baez(3233133342)
c - Jeff Nelson(5443023422)
y - David Riske(2223343440)
y - Curtis Leskanic(1330335352)
y - Rafael Soriano(424332)
y - Mike MacDougal(50522)
y - Derrick Turnbow(3334)
Bobby Seay(3443345314)
Mark Malaska(3332411433)
John Parrish(3233222424)


c
z - Mark Hendrickson(30003)
z - Brian Anderson(32122)
Carlos Silva(30444)

xyz - Terry Adams(5333453333)
xz - Chris Hammond(5334534433)
x - Ron Villone(4233233231)
z - Cliff Politte(3523434343)
z - Rick White(3443142032)
z - Omar Daal
z - Steve Karsay
Julio Mateo(4252443221)
Justin Speier(4530334333)


x
Jesus Colome(3543343443)
D.J. Carrasco(4243342434)
Trever Miller(5532303454)
Erasmo Ramirez(3334341334)
Frank Francisco(3343253313)
Chad Gaudin(2333314352)


z
Jaime Cerda(4512153431)
Brandon Puffer(2332242224)


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Brad Radke(55533), Barry Zito(43533), Ryan Drese(34503), Jon Lieber(04343), Rich Harden(23335), Ted Lilly(33243), Gil Meche(33243), Josh Towers(34303), John Lackey(33330), and Wil Ledezma(33330).

Other decent relievers include George Sherrill, Todd Williams, Grant Balfour, Al Levine, J.J. Putz, Shawn Campa, Scott Atchison, Justin Duchscherer, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Ron Mahay, and Sean Douglass.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: With Ugueth Urbina possibly gone for the year, Esteban Yan, Jamie Walker, Al Levine, and Gary Knotts all could see save opportunities. However, Yan's 17:5 K:BB in 16 August innings and history of closing make him the logical choice for Alan Trammell. While Levine and Walker remain respectable alternatives, neither pitcher possesses an impressive strikeout rate, and Knotts shouldn't move from the rotation to closing at this point in his career.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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