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August
28th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 NL LPR through 21 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 25th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2A - Brad Penny(23540)
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(44340)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(35444)
ABX - Livan Hernandez(43544)
CXZ - Jeff Weaver(44432)
C - Woody Williams(35342)

23abcxyz - John Smoltz(2344454444)
2abcxyz - Eric Gagne(3343335243)
Ay - Glendon Rusch(3434232034)
abxy - Julian Tavarez(3454435424)
abxy - Luis Ayala(4554235323)
ax - Mike Gonzalez(4545454335)
ax - Kiko Calero(3434455420)
ax - Ryan Madson(4343232424)
a - Orber Moreno(0545245242)
x - Akinori Otsuka(5424554444)

With Woody Williams replacing Peavy and Neal slipping down in favor of Ayala and Otsuka, the depth among pitchers who achieved this ranking at least one week this year continues increasing.


2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(35340)
BCYZ - Mark Prior(05033)

3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(3434433324)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4534444524)
3byz - Joe Borowski(2433341342)
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(4554334432)
abx - Guillermo Mota(5444354433)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
byz - Rheal Cormier(5454425353)
by - Javier Lopez(2525304345)


3
ABCZ - Odalis Perez(45340)
ACZ - Matt Morris(04354)
abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(4455452455)
cxz - Steve Reed(5344343335)
by - Jay Witasick(1153123445)
cz - Robb Nen


A
BCX - Andy Pettitte(43544)
BCZ - Matt Clement(33452)
BCY - Jason Schmidt(45255)
BCY - Roger Clemens(43204)
CXYz - Carlos Zambrano(44554)
CX - Jake Peavy(55553)
CX - Ben Sheets(44334)
CZ - Greg Maddux(32445)
XZ - Oliver Perez(44445)
X - Joe Kennedy(34203)
Dontrelle Willis(34524)
Doug Davis(30445)
Kerry Wood(34240)
Cory Lidle(13403)

Doug Davis' return to the rankings highlights a slow week at this tier, however owners looking for marginal advantages should notice that youngsters Zambrano, Peavy, and Perez appear much better bets right now than Clement, Clemens, and Wood.


B
C - Wade Miller(04442)
Y - Josh Beckett(00344)
Y - Brandon Webb(31234)
x - Jeff Fassero(23023)
Andrew Good(00)
Michael Tejera(00)

Yax - Juan Cruz(5344343324)
Yax - Darren Dreifort(5534542043)
y - Adam Bernero(3334340221)
Jim Brower(4343345344)
Amaury Telemaco(4442323442)
Todd Van Poppel(3314335011)


C
Y - Kip Wells(41340)
Z - A.J. Burnett(25353)
Z - Brian Lawrence(41344)
Z - John Patterson(33404)
David Wells(43333)
Adam Eaton(02344)
Al Leiter(40241)
Casey Fossum(10051)


X
Z - Vicente Padilla(33533)
Jason Marquis(34353)
Jamey Wright(33404)


Y
Z - Randy Wolf(34433)
Tony Armas, Jr.(40333)

ax - Dustin Hermanson(305334432)

The Giants don't need another closer given Hermanson's success. Feel free to target him anywhere you need saves as he looks as solid as all save the few established stud relievers.


a
x - Darren Oliver(10030)
Wilson Alvarez(43350)

bcxy - Braden Looper(3342424444)
bcxz - Ray King(4443145343)
bcxz - Chris Reitsma(5435435103)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(2505443431)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bcz - Luis Vizcaino(5345413511)
cxz - Billy Koch(5243233344)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(3535420315)
cxz - Armando Almanza(334444031)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(2323444245)
bx - Brad Lidge(3444434344)
bx - Armando Benitez(4155434345)
by - Kyle Farnsworth(4313030232)
by - Jose Valverde(3132442434)
cx - Steve Kline(3543343444)
cx - Danny Graves(4423454203)
xz - Mike DeJean(4445455324)
c - Randy Choate(4333342433)
c - Brian Boehringer(2433434431)
x - Scott Linebrink(4533242454)
x - Salomon Torres(5245443552)
x - Jon Leicester(4443343421)
x - Elmer Dessens(2332354234)
x - Tommy Phelps(3352455450)
y - Brian Meadows(3323435443)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
z - Jose Mesa(4231412454)
John Grabow(4534024543)
T.J. Tucker(4244543025)
Chad Harville(5455224253)
Mike Adams(4443241332)
Kirk Bullinger(4144342232)
Dan Miceli(4223434542)


b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(3242355531)
cxz - Mike Remlinger(5335244244)
cy - Matt Herges(2435243343)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(3532454412)
cz - Joey Eischen(35342343)
cz - Paul Shuey
cz - Mike Crudale
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
y - Tom Martin(3433245343)
y - Danny Patterson(4235412320)
Cal Eldred(3453434554)
Kevin Gryboski(5352553533)
Dave Burba(4544234244)
Jason Simontacchi(1223444222)
Scott Service(3135442331)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Troy Brohawn


c
Carl Pavano(33242)
Sun-Woo Kim(00023)
Zach Day(21043)

Pavano's descent continues, however he still faces a relatively soft schedule over the next few weeks and should remain a very useful fantasy player.

yz - Ricky Stone(3445243342)
y - Brian Fuentes(3444233423)
z - Ricky Bottalico(5444444124)
z - Todd Jones(2332243343)
z - Mike Fetters(4204535321)
z - Al Reyes(3)
z - Gary Glover
z - Scott Stewart(3425334510)
z - Eddie Oropesa(3040332450)
z - Dave Coggin
z - Chad Paronto
Blaine Neal(3444333222)
John Riedling(0323131142)
Travis Driskill(232)
Toby Borland(5222512431)


x
Duaner Sanchez(3434443443)
Brian Bruney(3423453334)
Rudy Seanez(0333354453)
Joe Horgan(4503333343)
Yhency Brazoban(3523434352)
Chad Fox(4454433330)

Although Sanchez and Brazoban don't appear particularly dominant, both offer solid qualitative upside and could luck into a couple of save opportunities.


y
y - Rocky Biddle(00010)

Mike Stanton(5432453555)
John Franco(2253230354)
Brooks Kieschnick(3324103404)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Dave Veres


z
Vladimir Nunez(1413324320)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Chad Zerbe


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Aaron Harang(34334), Noah Lowry(53053), Eric Milton(15343), Brett Myers(55035), Wes Obermueller(33034), Jeff Suppan(03443), Dennis Tankersley(5443), and John Thomson(45045).

Other decent relievers include Greg Aquino, Nate Bump, Mark Corey, Scott Eyre, Kent Mercker, Felix Rodriguez, Joe Valentine, Ryan Wagner, and Tyler Walker.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Relatively unheralded or underrated NL middle relievers with strong current QA logs and an excellent chance to help you qualitatively include Mike Gonzalez, Mike Koplove, Rheal Cormier, Ray King, Chris Reitsma, Mike DeJean, Scott Linebrink, Salomon Torres, Mike Remlinger, Juan Cruz, Cal Eldred, Dave Burba, Kevin Gryboski, Ricky Stone, Ricky Bottalico, Duaner Sanchez, Mike Stanton, Nate Bump, Kent Mercker, and Ryan Wagner. Almost all of the twenty relievers listed here should post positive fantasy value over the balance of the season, giving you several intriguing options that should appear on free agent lists in standard leagues. Unless locked in a tight battle in wins, you should consider adding a couple of these arms for the stretch run to improve your ERA and WHIP foundation. These relievers offer even greater potential in leagues with daily transactions, especially if you also face a GS limit, since adding bullpen arms increases your upside in every pitching category without much accompanying risk.


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