Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from August to September. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from August to September while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Two pitchers qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from their respective placement on last month's Dogs of August list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Jeff Suppan, RH Starter, STL: -2.28 ERA. July: target.
Thanks to a 03443 current QA log, a career-best 1.57 G-F, and the excellent support received by all Cardinals' pitchers on both sides of the plate, Suppan should cruise to his most productive fantasy numbers ever. Yes, his 5.3 K/9 indicates a relatively low ceiling, but since St. Louis signed him to a two-year deal, I see no reason for any significant downturn for Suppan in the near future. He also should rank as a great keeper in most standard leagues given a likely low salary, so the only problem I see here is that Suppan should finish the year with starts in Colorado and St. Louis. If you can risk the qualitative damage or even just reserve him for those outings, I see no reason not to add him anywhere you see him available.
August: target.

Steve Sparks, RH Swingman, ARI: -2.12 ERA. July: deal or cut.
Given his 7.94 ERA on a 3:2 K:BB in 5.2 IP with 6 H, 3 HR, and a 6-12 G-F in only four appearances this month, Sparks does not belong on the fantasy roster of any team. The 39-year-old no longer owns the respectable command that allowed him to enjoy a couple productive years with the Tigers. His failures as both a starter and reliever this year, especially when combined with terrible defensive and relief support from an extremely unproductive collection of teammates, make Sparks absolutely toxic in any league that counts qualitative categories. A lack of innings and negligible chance at accumulating wins or strikeouts also make him useless in even the most pitcher-friendly leagues.
August: deal or cut.

Kip Wells, RH Starter, PIT: -2.34 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between August and September:
2001: 1.31; 2002: 2.47; 2003: 2.36.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	13/22	85.2	101/13	64:33	6-10/0	5.16
Sept.	13/19	89.2	85/8	60:24	5-4/0	2.82

04AUG	3/3	18.2	24/3	17:6	1-1/0	5.30

Pittsburgh placed Wells on the DL with elbow discomfort on Monday. By making the move retroactive to August 14th, the Pirates hope he can return at the beginning of September. Of course, given the team's second-half fade, protecting Wells' health makes much more sense for Pittsburgh than rushing him back. At least his skills didn't indicate any warning signs, so he should regain his effectiveness quickly whenever he returns. Target Wells anywhere you see him available for possible stretch run help, and make him a priority if you can keep him in 2005 since he could enjoy an impressive rebound if he cuts his walk rate at all.

Jeff Weaver, RH Starter, LA: -1.72 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between August and September:
2001: 0.41; 2002: 1.93; 2003: 1.95.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	11/18	90.1	112/9	55:21	3-7/2	5.08
Sept.	8/14	67	70/6	43:12	6-2/0	3.36

04AUG	4/4	29	22/2	19:4	2-0/0	2.17	

Despite a 44432 current QA log, Weaver appears nicely positioned to excel down the stretch. Following starts against the very unimpressive offenses of Montreal and Arizona, he follows two starts against St. Louis with two outings against San Diego and then home starts versus the Rockies and Giants. Yes, the Cardinals' potent attack could lead to qualitative problems, but his other six remaining starts look very safe. He also owns excellent all-around skills this year, and only a .86 G-F this month concerns me at all. The 28-year-old seems on the cusp of reemerging as an ace, so acquire him now before other owners notice his rebound.

As Roy Halladay should miss all save perhaps the last couple weeks of the season, I see no reason to discuss him even though he generally improves in September.

The lack of pitchers likely to improve significantly in August seems due to the general increase in offenses, often attributed to warmer weather. However, several teams in both leagues face either particularly daunting or unimpressive schedules, creating more opportunities for savvy owners to gain additional advantages. Pitchers on teams with strong bullpens that oppose weak offenses possess temporarily decreased downside. Conversely, even normally dominant relievers on clubs that lack a solid relief corps easily could struggle when encountering loaded batting orders.

American League teams with above-average bullpens(sorted by RAR) and soft schedules include Anaheim, Texas, and New York. They respectively own the third, first and second best AL relief corps, but none of them play more than 10 games against AL teams with above-average offenses(sorted by RC/G, since ballparks matter for fantasy teams that count stats like ERA). Angels' pitchers offer the most upside since they only oppose above-average offenses in seven August games.

Avoid pitchers on Toronto and Detroit as much as possible. Both clubs possess relatively poor bullpens and face above-average offenses in no less than twenty August games; they also appear likely to dump veterans in the coming weeks. Conversely, while Seattle and Oakland own relatively unimpressive relief corps, both clubs enjoy soft schedules comparable to the opponents faced by Anaheim.

National League teams with above-average bullpens and soft schedules include St. Louis, San Diego, and Los Angeles. The Cardinals own the third best relief corps in the league yet only face above-average offenses in four games; all St. Louis pitchers appear likely to contribute positively to fantasy teams in August. The Padres and Dodgers respectively own the best relief corps in the majors, and both clubs oppose above-average offenses in less than half of their August games.

Avoid all Montreal pitchers save Livan Hernandez and maybe Chad Cordero. With the fourth-worst NL bullpen and twenty-one games against above-average offenses, Expos' fans likely won't enjoy August. Arizona ranks as the sleeper club for NL pitchers since the Diamondbacks only face five teams with above-average offenses, but with Steve Finley headed out of town and Luis Gonzalez soon succumbing to Tommy John surgery, questions regarding their defense make Arizona pitchers risky pick-ups through the end of the season.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Non-closing AL relievers currently earning double-digit value include Juan Rincon, Scot Shields, Carlos Almanzar, B.J. Ryan, Damaso Marte, and J.C. Romero. Adding any of them, especially if you can dump a questionable starter, still should provide a noticeable qualitative boosts with nearly six weeks left in the season.