Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose September performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in August. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both August and September over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from August to September while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Bernie Williams only qualified for today's list strictly due to rebound from his placement on last month's Hot Dogs of August list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Bernie Williams, OF, NYY: -.100 BA/-.138 OPS. July: wait.
Posting a strong .305/.363/.512 performance this month, coupled with his best power numbers of the year, make Williams an intriguing player to own. Unfortunately, the nearly 36-year-old isn't demonstrating any of the power potential suggested by his career-best 1.12 G-F. Given his strong likelihood of a September slump and the general malaise suffered by most Yankees' batters this year, I expect Williams' averages to fall significantly by season's end, leaving him with his worst marks in over a decade. As he also appears poised to lose more playing time as he heads into the last year of his guaranteed deal, I see no reason to retain Williams if you can move him for an upgrade or even just reserve him for a superior free agent option that offers more upside in specific categories of need for your team.
August: deal.

Sammy Sosa, OF, CHC: -.089 BA; -.320 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2001: .044/.332; 2002: .128/.450; 2003: .080/.139.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	296	38:68	.338/.413/.757
Sept.	281	41:73	.249/.345/.505

04AUG	110	9:33	.218/.289/.455		

Aside from mild contact problems, the 35-year-old Sosa retains the same skills that fueled his reign as baseball's most consistent power hitter from 1998 through 2002. Unfortunately, injuries and inconsistency this season should leave him under 40 homers for the first time since 1998 and potentially under 100 RBI for the first time in a decade. His terrible August performance also reduces his trade value significantly, so even though we only should see a small September rebound at best, wait unless you find an owner willing to pay with the expectation Sosa will echo his .265/10/21 in July, if not post a 15/30 vintage Sosa month against all odds.

Gary Sheffield, OF, NYY: -.078 BA; -.307 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2001: .176/.576; 2002: .009/.212; 2003: .042/.143.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	289	45:36	.367/.456/.678
Sept.	225	30:21	.289/.373/.453

04AUG	98	22:20	.296/.439/.684		

Although Sheffield maintains a respectable average most Septembers, the MVP candidate almost certainly will struggle to some extent over the balance of the season since even great plate discipline hasn't prevented fall problems over the past few years. His power numbers usually drop precipitously, suggesting you should deal him now while his MVP buzz appears at a zenith. As Sheffield will not maintain his current pace, selling high looks like a smart move in any league with a late trading deadline.

Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B, BOS: -.094 BA; -.245 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2001: .128/.316; 2002: .140/.413; 2003: .027/.040.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	284	42:36	.320/.409/.465
Sept.	186	31:34	.226/.290/.339

04AUG	53	1:7	.226/.250/.340		

Leaving Minnesota left Mientkiewicz without a certain starting job since Kevin Millar's resurgence leaves surprisingly little playing time available on the Red Sox. Of course, Mientkiewicz's terrible season, including a .150/.310/.200 in 80 June at-bats, doesn't merit much consideration given the alternatives Terry Francona can stack in the Boston lineup. With increasing contact problems and negligible power, Mientkiewicz only belongs on active rosters in very deep leagues. Most owners should shop him to see if anyone shows interest in a potential rebound, however both Mientkiewicz's history and 2004 stats provide scant reason to expect noticeable improvement.

Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW: -.080 BA; -.242 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2001: .043/.206; 2002: .077/.211; 2003: .122/.320.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	284	30:32	.320/.385/.549
Sept.	242	23:29	.240/.312/.380

04AUG	95	13:21	.232/.336/.442		

While Konerko could continue slumping through October, gradual improvements in his plate discipline suggest he might overcome his usual September struggles. Of course, he hadn't hinted at the ability to smack 40 homers despite relatively impressive power skills, and growing contact problems suggest we shouldn't see any BA improvement. Unless you see an obviously great trade, wait in the hope that he at least will hit another 5 homers and 15 RBI. Konerko's consistent power production makes him too valuable to move in most leagues even considering his qualitative downside.

Brad Ausmus, C, HOU: -.078 BA; -.232 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2001: .071/.216; 2002: .107/.248; 2003: .053/.222.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	239	23:37	.297/.358/.427
Sept.	215	17:30	.219/.279/.275

04AUG	64	7:9	.297/.366/.406		

Anyone who added Ausmus as injury filler and enjoyed his helpful August numbers needs to deal or cut him immediately. While he obviously offers little quantitative upside, and his likely diminished playing time in September reduces his downside, Ausmus also offers negligible upside for fantasy owners. Considering his monthly performance this year almost exactly mirrors his normal August marks, keeping him active through the end of the season simply makes no sense.

David Eckstein, SS, ANA: -.073 BA; -.190 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2001: .044/.316; 2002: .037/.156; 2003: .022/.027.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	289	18:27	.329/.379/.426
Sept.	219	14:20	.256/.318/.297

04AUG	107	10:6	.234/.300/.290		

Expecting great marks from the 29-year-old future journeyman isn't logical given his statistical stagnation over the past two years. However, while he no longer steals many bases, Eckstein's .341 BA in June and July nicely compensates for his August struggles. Considering his strong plate discipline, he appears to own the necessary skills to avoid his normal slump, making him a good player to target for teams needing BA/SB help.

Adam Kennedy, 2B, ANA: -.063 BA; -.170 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2001: .057/.248; 2002: .116/.219; 2003: .017/.085.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	270	18:49	.315/.364/.485
Sept.	222	15:32	.252/.310/.369

04AUG	78	9:4	.333/.411/.474		

Kennedy appears on track to echo his 2003 stats, however a rising ground-fly rate indicates future power problems. His inconsistent speed and unimpressive plate discipline similarly leave little hope that he can avoid a significant downturn next month. Explore any available deal for Kennedy to avoid a potential BA sinkhole in September.

Marlon Anderson, 2B/OF, STL: -.063 BA; -.137 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2001: .112/.212; 2002: .013/.048; 2003: .055/.165.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	268	21:35	.299/.352/.407
Sept.	236	20:26	.236/.283/.339

04AUG	31	0:4	.161/.161/.194		

At least Anderson can't perform much worse next month. The respective resurgences of Tony Womack and Ray Lankford relegated Anderson to a bench player by May, and the acquisition of Larry Walker guarantees Anderson won't receive many September at-bats. Of course, since he hasn't managed a monthly BA over .216 since April, his limited SB upside doesn't warrant a roster spot given his poor overall skills. Deal or cut Anderson if you still own him for any reason.

Today's Fantasy Rx: AL teams with multiple players listed above in the same league should explore alternatives immediately. Simultaneous slumps by Sheffield and Kennedy or Mientkiewicz and Eckstein could cause a couple points of unexpected BA loss, not to mention their probably quantitative downturns. If you can't trade these players for similar talents with less immediate downside, at least look for potential replacements among youngsters who might find regular playing time upon reaching the majors over the next few weeks.