Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose September performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in August. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both August and September over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from August to September while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

Three of the eight players discussed below only qualified for today's list strictly due to rebound from their respective placement on last month's Dogs of August list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Torii Hunter, OF, MIN: +.080 BA/+.302 OPS. July: shop.
Hunter hasn't posted a batting average below .272 or above .273 in any month since May, and his power rebound this month makes him an intriguing target. Although a career-best 3.60 #P/PA doesn't indicate obvious growth over a 3.54 career norm, he should hold an above-average BA while contributing in every quantitative category. Now the usual #3 hitter in Minnesota's most recent lineup alignment, I see no reason not to add a former All-Star with five-category upside on a probably playoff team.
August: target.

Juan Pierre, OF, FLO: +.095 BA/+.261 OPS. July: target.
Although a decreasing stolen base success rate moderately limits Pierre's value, a .97 contact rate this month, coupled with his great speed and a significant number of at-bats, makes him a tremendous BA asset. While he offers almost no help in power categories, owners seeking a BA/SB infusion should attempt to add him. Expect another ten steals while his average remains well above .300 as Pierre heads into his historically most productive month.
August: acquire.

Brian Giles, OF, SD: +.061 BA/+.135 OPS. July: acquire.
All of Giles' skills remain relatively impressive, however mild walk rate erosion and the offensive downside of playing half his games in Petco makes him a risky play for owners needing more than a handful of homers and RBI. Assuming a .300 BA in September for him also isn't a terrible idea, however I see nothing in his stats to indicate a pending power surge. Treating Giles as more than a $20 player looks like a mistake given his apparently limited upside this season.
August: target.

Bobby Kielty, OF, OAK: +.110 BA; +.266 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between August and September:
2001: .149/.334; 2002: .090/.405; 2003: .104/.151.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	153	24:39	.176/.293/.281
Sept.	140	12:27	.286/.354/.486

04AUG	26	5:2	.192/.344/.231	

With only a handful of starts this month and a September promotion likely for AAA outfielders like Nick Swisher, Kielty shouldn't see many more at-bats this season. Yes, he remains a viable OBP source, but he offers negligible upside in all roto leagues due to his atrocious average and limited quantitative contribution. Deal or cut Kielty in all standard leagues since his BA easily negates his occasional home run.

Andruw Jones, OF, ATL: +.098 BA; +.259 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between August and September:
2001: .061/.231; 2002: .117/.404; 2003: .113/.163.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	300	30:74	.210/.290/.407
Sept.	247	17:62	.308/.353/.603

04AUG	99	9:33	.283/.343/.485		

Although improving patience boosts his walk rate, Jones' contact rate remains terrible and he owns a career-worst ground-fly rate, depressing his power production to worrisome levels. He might even fail to reach 30 homers for the first time this decade despite turning 27 this spring. However, he hasn't failed to hit 4 homers or drove home 14 runners in any month this year save June, so treat those numbers as his minimum output in September. Jones easily could exceed both marks, so look to acquire him anywhere you need a quantitative boost.

Steve Finley, OF, LA: +.075 BA; +.204 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between August and September:
2001: .089/.385; 2002: .057/.126; 2003: .051/.189.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	254	33:40	.252/.340/.425
Sept.	254	22:40	.327/.382/.587

04AUG	101	8:11	.337/.378/.574		

Given his outstanding performance since joining Los Angeles, Finley almost certainly will maintain this production over the balance of the season. Significant improvement in his contact rate this year suggests his average should continue heading upward, and since switching from the BOB to Dodger Stadium hasn't hurt his power numbers, Finley's quantitative output should remain very impressive. Of course, his overall numbers this year will increase his trade cost, so only target Finley in leagues where you don't find his value prohibitively costly to the rest of your roster.

Preston Wilson, OF, COL: +.050 BA; +.118 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between August and September:
2001: .081/.094; 2002: .008/.020; 2003: .043/.144.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	270	26:75	.226/.302/.728
Sept.	217	16:45	.276/.325/.521

04AUG	50	5:15	.220/.304/.440		

Given his poor production since returning from knee surgery in late June, his declining production in August, and more knee problems this week that could limit his playing time over the last six weeks of the season, investing in Wilson now appears a very risky strategy. Yes, all Rockies possess significant offensive upsides, but Wilson simply hasn't demonstrated consistent health or production this year. Unless completely desperate for offense, shop Wilson to see if you can find a safer alternative.

Rob Fick also qualified for today's list strictly due to rebound from his placement on last month's Dogs of August. However, his recent release by Tampa Bay and subsequent signing of a minor league deal with San Diego should render him useless to roto teams for the balance of this season even if the Padres promote him in September.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With trading deadlines in most leagues also quickly approaching, immediately contact anyone who owns players that can impact your team. Delaying a deal for even one transaction period costs you over 10% of a player's remaining production, greatly decreasing your potential gain from any moves.