Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 18th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.

1
2A - Brad Penny(23540)
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(54434)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(54354)
ABX - Livan Hernandez(44354)
ACX - Jake Peavy(35555)
CXZ - Jeff Weaver(54443)

While Sheets heads down for the first time in months while Lowry also falls off the ranking, the additions of Peavy and Weaver add a surprising level of depth, particularly given the struggles experienced by Weaver in New York. However both he and Peavy now rank in the top tier of NL starters due to consistent success over the past few weeks, making both great targets in every league.

23abcxyz - John Smoltz(3523444544)
2abcxyz - Eric Gagne(4533433352)
abxy - Julian Tavarez(5433534544)
Ay - Glendon Rusch(3343423203)
ax - Mike Gonzalez(4354545454)
ax - Kiko Calero(3434455420)
ax - Ryan Madson(4343232424)
a - Orber Moreno(0545245242)
c - Blaine Neal(0234443332)

Mike Gonzalez helps improve the depth lost here by the injuries to Calero, Madson, and Moreno. Of course, Gonzalez hasn't posted an outing below a 2 this year, and that one 2 occurred at the end of June, making him perhaps the most consistently dominant reliever in baseball since his mid-May promotion.

2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(35340)
BCYZ - Mark Prior(50503)

While his inconsistency remains worrisome, Prior's skills still demonstrate significant upside. Unfortunately, his owners in single-season leagues may not benefit as much as keeper-league teams.

3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(2443434433)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4534444524)
3byz - Joe Borowski(2433341342)
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(4545543344)
abx - Guillermo Mota(3254443544)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
byz - Rheal Cormier(3305454425)
by - Javier Lopez(3252530434)

3
ABCXZ - Odalis Perez(04534)
ACZ - Matt Morris(40435)
C - Woody Williams(23534)

abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(4344455452)
cxz - Steve Reed(3353443433)
by - Jay Witasick(1153123445)
cz - Robb Nen

A
BCXZ - Matt Clement(33345)
CXYz - Carlos Zambrano(34455)
BCX - Andy Pettitte(43544)
BCY - Jason Schmidt(45255)
BCY - Roger Clemens(44320)
CX - Ben Sheets(34433)
CZ - Greg Maddux(35324)
XZ - Oliver Perez(43444)
X - Joe Kennedy(43420)
Kerry Wood(43424)
Dontrelle Willis(55345)
Cory Lidle(11340)

B
C - Wade Miller(04442)
Y - Brandon Webb(33123)
Y - Josh Beckett(00034)
x - Jeff Fassero(42302)
Andrew Good(00)
Michael Tejera(00)

Yax - Juan Cruz(4435344343)
Yax - Darren Dreifort(5534542043)
y - Adam Bernero(3334340221)
Jim Brower(2225434334)
Amaury Telemaco(0344423234)
Todd Van Poppel(3314335011)

C
Y - Kip Wells(41340)
Z - A.J. Burnett(22535)
Z - John Patterson(03340)
Z - Brian Lawrence(42413)
Al Leiter(43402)
David Wells(34333)
Adam Eaton(30234)
Casey Fossum(01005)

X
Z - Vicente Padilla(23353)
c - Carl Pavano(03324)
Jason Marquis(34343)
Jamey Wright(33340)

Padilla, Pavano, and Marquis continue to pitch acceptably, however do not confuse Jamey Wright's appearance here as anything more than a coincidental endorsement of his abilities. With a 4.6 career walk rate and a 5.5 BB/9 through six starts this season, he merits no consideration in standard leagues.

Y
Z - Randy Wolf(33443)
Tony Armas, Jr.(31403)

Dustin Hermanson(55305334)

a
x - Darren Oliver(10030)
Wilson Alvarez(34335)

bcxy - Braden Looper(4333424244)
bcxz - Chris Reitsma(4545435435)
bcxz - Luis Vizcaino(2353454135)
bcxz - Ray King(0344443145)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(5250544343)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bxy - Luis Ayala(3434455423)
bxy - Kyle Farnsworth(5343130302)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(5353542031)
cxy - Brian Fuentes(5152344423)
cxz - Billy Koch(0524323334)
cxz - Armando Almanza(334444031)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(5412323444)
bx - Brad Lidge(4445344443)
bx - Armando Benitez(5415543434)
by - Jose Valverde(3132442434)
cx - Steve Kline(3142354334)
cx - Danny Graves(4423454203)
xz - Mike DeJean(3434445455)
c - Randy Choate(4333342433)
c - Brian Boehringer(2433434431)
x - Akinori Otsuka(4542455444)
x - Salomon Torres(4252454435)
x - Jon Leicester(3444334342)
x - Mike Adams(3444432413)
x - Scott Linebrink(5445332424)
x - Tommy Phelps(3352455450)
y - Brian Meadows(5033234354)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
Chad Harville(5245455224)
Dan Miceli(2342234345)
Kirk Bullinger(4034144342)
John Grabow(2544534024)
T.J. Tucker(2424454302)

b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(4333332423)
cxz - Mike Remlinger(3453352442)
cy - Matt Herges(4424352433)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(3135324544)
cz - Joey Eischen(35342)
cz - Paul Shuey
cz - Mike Crudale
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
y - Tom Martin(1232343324)
y - Danny Patterson(4235412320)
Dave Burba(4334544234)
Cal Eldred(2433453434)
Kevin Gryboski(4045352553)
Jason Simontacchi(2122344422)
Scott Service(3135442331)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Troy Brohawn

c
Sun-Woo Kim(10002)
Zach Day(21043)

xz - Ricky Bottalico(4143354444)
yz - Ricky Stone(4334452433)
z - Mike Fetters(3420453532)
z - Todd Jones(3322332243)
z - Gary Glover
z - Eddie Oropesa(3040332450)
z - Dave Coggin
z - Chad Paronto
z - Al Reyes
John Riedling(3303231311)
Travis Driskill(232)
Toby Borland(5222512431)

Since he hasn't dominated in an outing in over a month, I don't view Riedling as a viable potential replacement for Graves. Ryan Wagner and Joe Valentine look like much better bets.

x
Rudy Seanez(0333354453)
Joe Horgan(3414503333)
Elmer Dessens(4233235423)
Brian Bruney(4234234533)
Chad Fox(4454433330)

Dessens and Horgan descend here, although I at least expect Dessens to rebound quickly. He performed very well in relief earlier in the year and now enjoys the benefits of pitching in front of the Los Angeles defense in Dodger Stadium. Matt Wise's uncertain role also finally forced him off the ranking due to increasing inconsistency.

y
y - Rocky Biddle(40001)

Mike Stanton(0445543245)
John Franco(0322532303)
Brooks Kieschnick(3324103404)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Dave Veres

z
Jose Mesa(3245423141)
Vladimir Nunez(1413324320)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Chad Zerbe

NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kris Benson(43253), Chris Capuano(42534), Doug Davis(34304), Mike Hampton(45034), Aaron Harang(33433), Sterling Hitchcock(433), Jose Limsa(33442), Noah Lowry(35530), Pete Munro(53033), Brett Myers(33550), and John Thomson(35450).

Other decent relievers include Greg Aquino, Yhency Brazoban, Nate Bump, Chad Cordero, Ryan Dempster, Scott Eyre, Kent Mercker, Phil Norton, Duaner Sanchez, Joe Valentine, and Ryan Wagner.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings

Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Although I don't see quiet as many surprise successes among youngsters added to NL starting rotations as the AL since the beginning of 2003, several pitchers still merit attention for both contenders and rebuilding teams. Dontrelle Willis and Oliver Perez may be the best long-term bets available, however Jason Marquis, Brandon Webb, Chris Capuano, Doug Davis, Aaron Harang, Noah Lowry, and Victor Santos also merit attention. While you should exercise some caution given the limited history of success enjoyed by these pitchers in the majors, I see no reason not to trust all of them down the stretch as long as you avoid deploying them in Colorado, as well as possibly Houston and Philadelphia.