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August
13th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 AL LPR through 19 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the end of the article for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 11th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23ABXYZ - Mark Mulder(44413)
AX - Freddy Garcia(44443)
A - Bronson Arroyo(53444)

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4531434513)
2 - Travis Harper(4144233454)
abcxyz - Tom Gordon(5445255344)
abcxyz - Mike Timlin(2342550442)
x - Kevin Gregg(4553544543)
Justin Duchscherer(2243333143)

While Trever Miller slid back down due to a mild slump, I'm heartened to see Harper earn the top ranking for the second straight year despite displaying neither consistent dominance nor avoiding regular disasters. He should rank near the top of your list of safe roster filler since I expect he remains on free agent lists in even very deep leagues.


2
3ABCXYZ - Pedro Martinez(44444)
3ABCYZ - Roy Halladay(52530)
3bcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(400)
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(45224)
ABCXYZ - Curt Schilling(42242)
BCY - Kevin Brown(30451)
BY - Esteban Loaiza(41233)
CY - Sidney Ponson(13433)
B - Mike Mussina(03232)
c - Scott Schoeneweis(24040)

3bcyz - Alan Embree(3024543344)
3acz - Arthur Rhodes(4423542124)
Baxz - Scot Shields(3433234552)
bcz - Jeremy Affeldt(432412454)


3
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(3344353344)
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(5355244533)
abcyz - Chad Bradford(5354442434)
bcxy - Damaso Marte(4133334433)
cxz - Ricardo Rincon(2335554233)
cyz - Buddy Groom(3343133322)


A
ABXYz - Johan Santana(43544)
X - Dave Borkowski(24434)
Terry Mulholland(44402)
Nate Robertson(42320)

While I expected Borkowski to settle here, Mulholland's success since returning to the rotation continues to amaze me.

b - Dennys Reyes(5551445132)


B
C - Javier Vazquez(03223)
Y - Joel Pineiro(23404)
Jose Contreras(40334)
Cliff Lee(40002)
Eric DuBose(32300)


C
XZ - Mark Buehrle(43344)
YZ - Tim Wakefield(30232)
Z - Derek Lowe(23234)
x - Rodrigo Lopez(32304)
Miguel Batista(45321)
Bartolo Colon(24433)

b - Mickey Callaway(5)


X
by - Jake Westbrook(34233)
Zach Greinke(03341)
David Bush(33034)


Y
cz - Jose Jimenez(3345134024)


Z
Orlando Hernandez(25035)


a
John Halama(40233)

bcxyz - Scott Williamson(2235545454)
bcxyz - Eddie Guardado(3534443310)
bcxy - Brendan Donnelly(4524354544)
bcyz - Octavio Dotel(4545432114)
bcyz - Jason Grimsley(4344535325)
bcx - Jim Mecir(5445344453)
bcy - Brian Shouse(3224023343)
bxy - Danys Baez(433544323)
cxz - J.C. Romero(5555045345)
bx - B.J. Ryan(3543423322)
cz - Bob Wickman(2454342555)
xy - Francisco Rodriguez(3545524544)
x - Joe Nathan(5455435455)
x - Bob Howry(3434445343)
x - Rafael Betancourt(4444544043)
x - Ramiro Mendoza(5444343352)
x - Juan Rincon(3243453443)
x - Carlos Almanzar(5532335453)
x - Frank Francisco(3243545533)
x - Shingo Takatsu(5533423423)
x - Jason Kershner(5353434515)
Esteban Yan(2334425343)
Matt J. Miller(3355135332)

A succession of impressive outings from Mendoza and Betancourt force them up the rankings, again demonstrating the solid fantasy depth at the lower rungs of this tier.


b
c - Kelvim Escobar(41355)
Kirk Saarloos(43030)

cxz - Ugueth Urbina(4333543343)
cyz - Paul Quantrill(3434334443)
cz - Troy Percival(1445305453)
c - Jeff Nelson(5443023422)
c - Scott Sauerbeck
y - David Riske(3434352532)
y - Curtis Leskanic(4455321330)
y - Danny Patterson(4235412320)
y - Derrick Turnbow(3334)
y - Rafael Soriano(424332)
y - Mike MacDougal(50522)
John Parrish(3454422232)
Bobby Seay(03301344)
Mark Malaska(3332411433)
Jack Cressend(4243121113)
Chris Mears


c
x - Ron Villone(22502)
z - Brian Anderson(35043)
z - Mark Hendrickson(44303)
Carlos Silva(43333)

yz - Terry Adams(3434533345)
z - Chris Hammond(3533335334)
z - Rick White(3455234431)
z - Cliff Politte(3444235523)
z - Ben Weber(3244323211)
z - Scott Stewart(3425334510)
z - Steve Karsay
z - Omar Daal
z - Jayson Durocher
z - Jason Middlebrook
z - Britt Reames
z - Carl Sadler
Mike Myers(0200443454)
Justin Speier(4324433424)
Julio Mateo(4252443221)
Kelly Wunsch(532)
Kane Davis
Hansel Izquierdo
Jose Santiago
Mike Thurman


x
z -Jaime Cerda(3424244512)
C.J. Nitkowski(4334432344)
Jason Frasor(5342433332)
Jamie Walker(5532345324)
Trever Miller(1443455532)
Jesus Colome(3225343543)
Chad Gaudin(3233331435)
Erasmo Ramirez(2333343413)

While Miller remains respectable roster filler, Carrasco suddenly looks somewhat intriguing due to his strong reemergence in Kansas City over his recent outings.


z
Jorge Julio(4455344343)
Mike Jackson(2242544235)
Brandon Puffer(2332242224)


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Ryan Drese(43043), Ryan Franklin(34332), Jon Garland(32534), Jason Johnson(55342), John Lackey(33513), Jon Lieber(33404), Ted Lilly(34233), Bobby Madritsch(54), Mike Maroth(53331), Brad Radke(33255), C.C. Sabathia(52454), Josh Towers(44303), and Mike Wood(43414).

Other decent relievers include Scott Atchison, Lance Carter, Vinnie Chulk, Jesse Crain, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, and Ron Mahay.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: NBC broadcasts the Opening Ceremonies of the 2004 Olympic Summer Games at Athens tonight at 7 PM(CDT). Given the significant percentage of respondents that ranked the Summer Olympics as their favorite sport to watch on TV in SI's state-by-state polls over the past year, I suspect many of you will enjoy the pomp and circumstance displayed at the beginning of this quadrennial fortnight of competition.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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