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August
11th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2004 Pitching: August AL Roto Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Jake Woods, 22, LH Starter
5-2 on a 41:23 K:BB in 56.1 IP over 9 GS(10G)
with 68 H, 9 HR, and a 5.59 ERA for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).
9-2 on a 60:19 K:BB in 90 IP over 14 GS
with 85 H, 5 HR, and a 2.60 ERA for AA Arkansas(TL).

Don't be surprised to see Woods in the majors soon as the only AAA left-hander on the 40-man roster. His ability to pitch longer outings makes him an intriguing possibility to replace Jarrod Washburn, who appears out indefinitely. Woods' developing dominance at the upper levels also indicates the potential for significant future success if he cuts his walk, hit, and homer rates slightly, a distinct option if given the support of Anaheim's very respectable defense and bullpen. Moving him into a complementary relief role to Kevin Gregg makes sense to add a different look to the staff. Of course, he doesn't merit much fantasy consideration until he proves himself under new circumstances, so wait until you see Woods register either a couple of decent starts or several solid relief outings before looking to add him to your roster.


Baltimore: Bruce Chen, 27, LH Swingman
4-3 on a 109:31 K:BB in 99 IP over 18 GS(23G)
with 92 H, 13 HR, and a 3.36 ERA between AAA Syracuse(IL) and AAA Ottawa(IL).

Chen should reach the majors within the next couple weeks given Baltimore's inconsistent starting pitching. He also could emerge as a reliever if the Orioles deal a veteran lefty by the end of the month. Unfortunately, Chen's homer problems and past inconsistency suggest you should wait until he demonstrates decent skills in Baltimore before rostering him, but feel free to add him once he registers a few solid outings.


Boston: John Stephens, 25, RH Starter
9-6 on a 96:29 K:BB in 137.1 IP over 20 GS(23G)
with 140 H, 23 HR, and a 4.46 ERA for AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Swiped from Baltimore off waiver this spring, Stephens remains a relatively successful AAA pitcher who apparently needs a pitching-needy team with a good defense to receive the chance to maintain his success in the majors. Although he suffers from homer problems, his excellent control and respectable historical dominance give him excellent upside in the right situation. Unfortunately, I don't expect Tampa or San Diego to liberate him any time soon, so while I strongly believe in Stephens' potential, ignore him due to the risk of him repeating the 6.09 ERA he posted over a dozen appearances with Baltimore in 2003.


Chicago White Sox: Josh Stewart, 25, LH Starter
8-7 on an 82:42 K:BB in 146.2 IP over 24 GS
with 150 H, 19 HR, and a 3.80 ERA for AAA Charlotte(IL).

Stewart's superb control makes him a logical choice for any openings in the Chicago rotation over the last two months of the season. His skill set appears similar to Mark Buehrle's approach, and Buehrle's success with the Sox suggests Stewart also soon should contribute in the majors. Although his lack of dominance limits Stewart's upside, in particularly in standard leagues, only wait until he registers a couple of solid starts before attempting to roster him.


Cleveland: Francisco Cruceta, 23, RH Starter
5-4 on a 46:20 K:BB in 55.2 IP over 9 GS
with 49 H, 6 HR, and a 2.91 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).
4-8 on a 45:33 K:BB in 88.2 IP over 15 GS
with 89 H, 11 HR, and a 5.28 ERA for AA Akron(EL).

Although Cruceta failed even to echo his impressive AA stats from 2003, his success since joining Buffalo warrants big league consideration in the very near future. He neither suffers from particularly high hit nor homer rates, and Cruceta's command should insure he remains in the rotation with Cleveland. Target Cruceta in most leagues, especially if you can afford a qualitative hit now or want to rebuild by stockpiling young starters with intriguing upside.


Detroit: James Baldwin, 33, RH Starter
0-2 on a 1:5 K:BB in 6 IP over 2 GS
with 13 H, 3 HR, a .38 G-F, and a 15.00 ERA for New York(N).
7-5 on a 70:19 K:BB in 114.2 IP over 16 GS(18G)
with 113 H, 14 HR, and a 3.38 ERA between AAA Norfolk(IL) and AAA Toledo(IL).

With a consistently high ERA and negligible dominance, Baldwin needs excellent defensive support to avoid high hit rates that can destroy an otherwise solid standing in WHIP. His increasingly inconsistent big league performance leaves me extremely hesitant to recommend him despite his solid work in the International League. Generally ignore Baldwin unless you can absorb significant qualitative damage while chasing wins.


Kansas City: Denny Bautista, 23, RH Starter
0-0 on a 1:2 K:BB in 2 IP over 2 G
with 6 H, 2 HR, a 2-5 G-F, and a 36.00 ERA for Baltimore.
3-5 on a 72:33 K:BB in 62.2 IP over 13 GS(14G)
with 58 H, 5 HR, and a 4.74 ERA for AA Bowie(EL).
4-2 on a 63:25 K:BB in 62 IP over 9 GS
with 46 H, 1 HR, and a 2.47 ERA for AA Wichita(TL).

Pilfering Bautista from the Orioles for Jason Grimsley might rank as the biggest heist of the year. Yes, he almost certainly should spend another season in the minors, but his nearly perfect skill set since joining the Royals gives him an excellent chance to emerge as a long-term rotation solution in Kansas City. Given Bautista's historically solid dominance, he only needs to keep his walk rate down to remain extremely effective. Of course, while he might take advantage of a likely September call-up, only rebuilding teams should target Bautista now since he barely appears ready for AAA, forget about the majors.


Minnesota: Kevin Hodge, 27, RH Reliever
3-6 and 4 Saves on a 57:9 K:BB in 64 IP over 43 G
with 66 H, 9 HR, and a 3.52 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

Every year the Twins' AAA affiliate produces a couple of impressive AAAA relievers too old to qualify as true prospects. With Jesse Crain now in the majors, Hodge, who only converted to pitching full-time a couple seasons ago, now ranks as the most intriguing reliever at Rochester. He appears fully capable of contributing in the majors right now, and only an elevated homer rate worries me at all. If given the chance, I expect Hodge can succeed both for Minnesota and fantasy teams, although wait until he finds an established role in the Twins' pen before rostering him.


New York Yankees: Andy Beal, 25, LH Swingman
4-6 on a 45:36 K:BB in 106.2 IP over 16 GS(24G)
with 133 H, 12 HR, and a 4.81 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).

The Yankees' search for quality lefty relief may lead them to Beal by September. Although his high hit rate and limited dominance might lead to problems in front of New York's inconsistent defense, Beal at least won't walk many batters, making him an acceptable in-house alternative to Felix Heredia. However, you certainly should ignore Beal in fantasy leagues unless his command dramatically improves.


Oakland: Ron Flores, 25, LH Reliever
4-3 on a 50:17 K:BB in 45.2 IP over 47 G
with 52 H, 3 HR, and a 3.74 ERA for AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Hopefully the Athletics give Flores the big league chance he richly deserves after another very successful season in the upper minors. He owns the dominance, command, and limited downside necessary to remain effective in the majors. Expect Flores to receive a long look in spring training as he attempts to secure the third lefty spot in a normally balanced bullpen, but wait until he registers several solid outings before beginning to employ him as roster filler.


Seattle: Tim Christman, 29, LH Reliever
1-0 on a 35:11 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 23 G
with 30 H, 2 HR, and a 5.27 ERA for AAA Tacoma(PCL).

With the Mariners looking at almost every upper-level lefty in the organization and enjoying success with independent league refugee Bobby Madritsch, Christman should see Seattle in September given his strong skills set since departing the Northern League for Tacoma earlier this year. Unfortunately, I suspect Christman's poor ERA will keep him from the cup-of-coffee he merits, but he should succeed if given the necessary opportunity. Yes, roto owners still need to ignore Christman until he registers a succession of productive outings, however he at least deserves a chance since his performance appears quite comparably to his fellow Rainers' southpaws.


Tampa Bay: Jim Magrane, 26, RH Starter
6-4 on a 55:40 K:BB in 107.2 IP over 17 GS(21G)
with 133 H, 13 HR, and a 3.93 ERA for AAA Durham(IL).
1-2 on a 9:7 K:BB in 17 IP over 3 GS
with 17 H, 0 HR, and a 6.35 ERA for AA Montgomery(SL).

Magrane's respectable ERA and team-high six wins for the Bulls should force him to the majors in September. Of course, he doesn't appear to possess the skills necessary to succeed even when supported by the Rays' excellent defense. While I expect Magrane might emerge as an acceptable starting option at some point, ignore him since his weak command suggests limited immediate upside.


Texas: Chris Young, 25, RH Starter
2-0 on a 25:8 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS
with 18 H, 2 HR, and a 1.54 ERA for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).
6-5 on a 75:31 K:BB in 88.1 IP over 18 GS
with 94 H, 9 HR, and a 4.48 ERA for AA Frisco(TL).

The churning of starting pitchers in the Rangers' rotation should create an opening for the 6'10" Young by September. Stolen from Montreal this spring in the Einar Diaz deal, Young possesses as much upside as almost any pitcher in the minors given his long-term potential dominance due to his elevated angle of approach. His success since joining Oklahoma makes him a great gamble both for Texas and fantasy teams, so feel free to target Young if you see him recalled and facing unimpressive competition.


Toronto: Talley Haines, 27, RH Reliever
2-2 and 1 Saves on a 44:15 K:BB in 64.2 IP over 37 G
with 69 H, 11 HR, and a 4.31 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).

After dealing for Haines' rights from Tampa this spring so they could demote him, Toronto sent their 2003 Rule 5 pick to Syracuse, where he posted another strong skill set only marred by an elevated homer rate. He ranks as the best reliever to remain with the SkyChiefs all year, so hopefully the Jays will give Haines the chance he deserves in September. Of course, Jason Frasor appears quite secure as Toronto's closer, so ignore Haines until he either finds a significant bullpen role or at least a way to allow less homers.


We'll continue tomorrow with National League pitching prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Exercise a modicum of caution when targeting youngsters for stretch-run help. Several contenders could add an upper-level prospect in the hope of an invigorative boost, but most managers realize that media outlets rarely fault a skipper for sticking with "proven veterans" in a playoff push. I also expect a few organizations to limit the playing time of touted prospects with the mistaken goal of preserving Rookie of the Year eligibility. Despite the allure of producing a ROY recipient, the downside of the award winner commanding higher salaries prior to arbitration easily outweighs any benefits from the win. Teams like the Mets and Rays that recall top prospects into starting roles during the summer properly conserve resources by both avoiding early arbitration payouts for Super-2 players promoted early in the season and the pay scale increase due ROY winners.


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