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August
7th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 NL LPR through 18 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 4th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2A - Brad Penny(42354)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(44543)
ACX - Ben Sheets(44334)
Livan Hernandez(05443)

23abcxyz - John Smoltz(5345543352)
2abcxyz - Eric Gagne(5355445334)
ax - Kiko Calero(4343445542)
ax - Ryan Madson(4343232424)
a - Orber Moreno(0545245242)

Ayala and Otsuka slip down in a relatively quiet week for this ranking. However, with Moreno, Madson, and now Calero on the DL, I don't see any easily available targets here.


2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(13534)
BCYZ - Mark Prior(20050)

3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(3414244343)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4534444524)
3byz - Joe Borowski(2433341342)
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(3125145455)
abx - Guillermo Mota(4423125325)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
byz - Rheal Cormier(2335223305)
by - Javier Lopez(4433252530)


3
ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(30354)
ABCXZ - Odalis Perez(42404)
ACZ - Matt Morris(44040)
C - Woody Williams(23423)

abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(4325354344)
cxz - Steve Reed(4444033353)
by - Jay Witasick(2311531234)
cz - Robb Nen


A
BCXY - Jason Schmidt(55345)
BCXY - Roger Clemens(45244)
BCX - Andy Pettitte(34354)
BCZ - Matt Clement(44233)
CXZ - Greg Maddux(24353)
CX - Jake Peavy(02335)
Xc - Carl Pavano(34303)
X - Kerry Wood(33434)
X - Joe Kennedy(33434)
Dontrelle Willis(54553)
Cory Lidle(45011)

y - Glendon Rusch(3334342)

Slight slips from Marquis and Munro leave this level a little sparse compared to most weeks. Of course, everyone here save Lidle remains an excellent bet, so feel free to target pitchers here to improve your starting staff.


B
XY - Brandon Webb(34233)
C - Wade Miller(04442)
Y - Josh Beckett(00000)
x - Jeff Fassero(33423)
Andrew Good(00)
Michael Tejera(00)

Hopefully Beckett soon will finish the fifth inning while registering decent skills.

Yax - Darren Dreifort(4454255345)
Yax - Juan Cruz(4544544353)
x - Amaury Telemaco(3334030344)
y - Adam Bernero(33343402)
Jim Brower(3452422022)
Todd Van Poppel(3543233143)


C
XYz - Carlos Zambrano(33344)
XZ - Jeff Weaver(33254)
Y - Kip Wells(34413)
Z - A.J. Burnett(44322)
Z - Brian Lawrence(02424)
Z - John Patterson(40003)
Al Leiter(05434)
David Wells(43234)
Adam Eaton(21302)
Casey Fossum(05301)


X
Z - Vicente Padilla(53233)
Jason Marquis(31343)
Chris Carpenter(50332)
Tom Glavine(23522)


Y
Z - Randy Wolf(32033)
Tony Armas, Jr.(03140)

Dustin Hermanson(5)

I see no reason why the Giants' new closer won't succeed in returning to his old role.


Z
Oliver Perez(34434)


a
x - Darren Oliver(01003)
x - Elmer Dessens(00000)
Wilson Alvarez(53343)

Although I see no reason to roster Oliver or Dessens, Alvarez remains a very intriguing option in almost any league.

bcxy - Braden Looper(3444433342)
bcxz - Chris Reitsma(2544434545)
bcxz - Ray King(4341403444)
bcxz - Luis Vizcaino(4351522353)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(3541544525)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bxy - Luis Ayala(4543445433)
bxy - Julian Tavarez(2445255543)
bxy - Kyle Farnsworth(5435453431)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(3055535354)
cxz - Billy Koch(4355052432)
cxz - Armando Almanza(334444031)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(3023504541)
bx - Brad Lidge(4523544445)
bx - Armando Benitez(3225541554)
by - Jose Valverde(3132442434)
cx - Danny Graves(4452344234)
cx - Steve Kline(5154231423)
cy - Brian Fuentes(3515234442)
c - Randy Choate(2443333424)
c - Blaine Neal(5333502344)
c - Brian Boehringer(2433434431)
x - Mike Gonzalez(5555543545)
x - Scott Linebrink(5454435544)
x - Mike Adams(2554434444)
x - Akinori Otsuka(3435444542)
x - Joe Horgan(3343343341)
x - Jon Leicester(2344253444)
x - Salomon Torres(4224444425)
x - Tommy Phelps(3352455450)
y - Brian Meadows(5423453450)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
z - Brandon Villafuerte(4234234422)
John Grabow(2332544534)
Brian Powell(2133445144)
Kirk Bullinger(5154034144)
Dan Miceli(2232434234)

Gonzalez and Linebrink appears as dominant as any relievers this year; definitely target both pitchers for qualitative help in any standard league, especially since they won't be owned in many mixed leagues. Tucker and Norton depart while Powell joins in an otherwise quiet week near the bottom of the ranking.


b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(3235443333)
cxz - Mike Remlinger(2433234345)
cy - Matt Herges(3202334424)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(4144533313)
cz - Joey Eischen
cz - Paul Shuey
cz - Mike Crudale
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
y - Rod Beck(5434321514)
y - Tom Martin(4342343123)
Kevin Gryboski(3042333344)
Dave Burba(1423434334)
Cal Eldred(2443224334)
Scott Service(3135442331)
Jason Simontacchi(212234)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Troy Brohawn


c
Zach Day(21043)

yz - Ricky Stone(5422343344)
z - Mike Fetters(43440342)
z - Ricky Bottalico(2453234143)
z - Todd Jones(3152133223)
z - Eddie Oropesa(3040332450)
z - Dave Coggin
z - Chad Paronto
z - Al Reyes
John Riedling(4223303231)
Sun-Woo Kim(3535142233)
Travis Driskill(232)
Toby Borland(5222512431)


x
z - Jose Mesa(3452355324)
Matt Wise(4543353342)
Giovanni Carrara(4404342343)
Rudy Seanez(1433450333)
Brian Bruney(4234234533)
Chad Fox(4454433330)

Carrara replaces Dohmann while Seanez switches leagues with Nitkowski.


y
Rocky Biddle(4440)

Mike Stanton(4530445543)
John Franco(4032253230)
Brooks Kieschnick(3324103404)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Dave Veres


z
Mike DeJean(3354553434)
Vladimir Nunez(1413324320)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Chad Zerbe


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kris Benson(43432), Paul Byrd(45324), Chris Capuano(34253), Doug Davis(33343), Mike Hampton(23445), Aaron Harang(55233), Jose Lima(41334), Noah Lowry(0355), Victor Santos(24333), John Thomson(24354), and Jaret Wright(34454).

Other decent relievers include Greg Aquino, Jason Christiansen, Chad Cordero, Mike Gallo, Kent Mercker, and Phil Norton.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Greg Maddux won't be the last 300-game winner. Relative youngsters like C.C. Sabathia, Mark Mulder, and Mark Buehrle merely rank at the top of a long list of impressive starters with Hall of Fame upside. Tom Glavine and even Randy Johnson also soon could reach that plateau, however their respective ages make the goal at least mildly improbable. Since we might not see another pitcher win 300 for another decade, we certainly recommend trying to catch at least part of today's Cubs-Giants game at 3PM(CDT). Maddux faces San Francisco's Brad Hennessey, making his big league debut, giving the veteran a fairly good chance to add another milestone to his long list of achievements.


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