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July 31st 2004 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 28th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.
Another active week sees Hernandez returning up here while Odalis Perez drops down and Doug Davis surprisingly falls off completely. Penny's new home also should insure he remains up here indefinitely.
23abcxyz - John Smoltz(5444534554)
ax - Kiko Calero(4434344554) In the second biggest shock of this season's LPR rankings after Dave Borkowski's top ranking yesterday, Luis Ayala replaces Billy Wagner thanks to a month of dominant performance.
3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(2441341424)
abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(5434325354)
y - Glendon Rusch(333434) Seeing Clement, Patterson, and Carpenter slip while Ortiz and Suppan fall of the ranking all together surprises me, however the addition of Willis to the list intrigues me. Since he definitely qualifies as post-hype right now, he looks like a good pick-up in almost any league.
Yax - Darren Dreifort(4425445425) Dreifort, Cruz, and even Brower rank as strong buys right now since they easily each could pick up some save opportunities this season.
Carpenter's fall coincides with slumps that lead to the departures of Sean Burnett and Paul Byrd.
Perez nearly appears back to the level of performance he established at the beginning of the season. Given his age, dominance, and likely low salary, he should rank high on the list of any rebuilding team.
bcxy - Braden Looper(2434444333)
Kirk Bullinger(2515403414) Only Jon Leicester joining peaks my interest here; don't discount the Cubs' young reliever when looking for injury filler.
While frequently dismissed in almost all baseball circles, Roberto Hernandez remains a competent reliever who can help fantasy teams in deep leagues.
yz - Ricky Stone(3445422343)
Mike Stanton(3441453044)
Other decent relievers include Greg Aquino, Nate Bump, Giovanni Carrara, Chad Cordero, Josias Manzanillo, and Kent Mercker.
QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster. Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
New York mortgaged three of their top half-dozen prospects to acquire a pending free agent and an arbitration-eligible right-handed with a 6.8 BB/9. Expect Kris Benson to post a much better hit rate, homer rate, and overall ERA; even his winning percentage should head upward, making his fantasy owners very happy. Unfortunately, since Tampa owns a fantastic defense and a pitchers' park roughly comparable to Shea Stadium, Mets' pitching coach Rick Peterson appears responsible for any improvement by Victor Zambrano. The only significant player to join the NL yesterday doesn't merit more than token FAAB consideration unless you can gamble on SP help. Either Nelson Figueroa or Dave Williams soon should replace Ryan Vogelsong in the Pirates' rotation; the latter should intrigue rebuilding teams. Jorge Sosa looks like Zambrano's replacement; he doesn't appear nearly as prepared as Williams to succeed in the majors. Pittsburgh grabbed Ty Wigginton and Matt Peterson from the Mets while finally reacquiring Rule 5 pick Jose Bautista. Neither Peterson nor Bautista belong in the majors this year, but Wigginton should push Chris Stynes off the roster while relegating Bobby Hill to sharing second base duties with Jose Castillo. Of course, Wigginton possesses very questionable offensive skills and doesn't appear headed for a breakout despite turning 27 this fall. Bump his value slightly since PNC Park should add a few homers while slightly increasing his batting average, however don't make the Pirates' mistake of believing his long-term value approaches Huber's potential. San Diego almost acquired Brad Fullmer before instead reacquiring Dave Hansen. Consider him as no more than injury filler. Philadelphia dealt Ricky Ledee and Alfredo Simon to San Francisco for Felix Rodriguez. Unfortunately, this deal could gut FRod's value as he moves from an historical pitchers' park to a surprisingly strong hitters' haven. Treating him as more than an endgame makes little sense given the homer rate he might post thanks to his .70 G-F. Although Simon shouldn't contribute for a few years, Ledee should see immediate playing time given Marquis Grissom's .627 OPS this month. He remains a capable fifth outfielder in standard leagues who could emerge as an unexpected starter within a few weeks. Feel free to deploy Marlon Byrd again since Philadelphia appears unable to trust Jason Michaels as a regular. Jason Christiansen and Jim Brower now look like slightly better late-inning options with FRod's departure. The Phillies also added Todd Jones and Brad Correll from Cincinnati for Josh Hancock and Anderson Machado. Despite a surprisingly solid skill set, Jones merits little consideration in any league and Correll needs at least two more years of seasoning. Hancock soon could replace one of the Reds' starters, although only rebuilding teams should add him now. Machado might own the most upside here thanks to his solid plate discipline, but a weak contact rate and defensive questions make him useless to fantasy teams for now. Finally, the most significant trade yesterday involved Dodgers' GM Paul DePodesta moved his starting catcher, right fielder, and top set-up man for a potential ace, a young stud first baseman, and a fast-rising AA southpaw starter. DePodesta clearly lost the deal in 5x5 leagues, dealing $43 of talent for only $33 and a prospect. Of course, Brad Penny and Hee Choi owners should rejoice as neither player appeared particularly valued by the Marlins. If Choi plays every day, he shouldn't lose any BA while his homers could jump by nearly 20% thanks to the difference in park effects. Penny's ERA similarly could drop by a full point over the balance of the year thanks to the advantages of both Chavez Ravine and the superior Dodgers' defense. While both Penny and Choi could finish the weekend with Arizona, where Penny's value would follow Brandon Webb's down and Choi's would explode in the hitter-friendly environment, I see no reason why DePodesta would deal two young building blocks for 40-year-old veterans. Feel free to charge after this duo now. Paul Lo Duca, already beginning his normal second half slump, could see his power disappear; a slight BA bump won't compensate you for the quantitative loss. Juan Encarnacion will experience a similar change, and since Jack McKeon didn't let him run often last year, don't expect a sudden SB increase. Guillermo Mota may suffer the most of the new Marlins without Dodger Stadium, the Los Angeles defense, or Eric Gagne protecting him. I don't advise dumping any of these guys, but given the inane fawning over Florida's end of this deal, take advantage of the incorrect conventional wisdom to see what these players might bring you in trade. Only the potential for Mota to emerge as a closer given Benitez's injury struggles should keep him on your team indefinitely. Unless Florida deals for another starter, Justin Wayne could remain in the rotation indefinitely, although his inconsistency should keep most roto owners away. Mike Redmond's value heads down as he returns to a reserve role, and Josias Manzanillo no longer should receive any save opportunities. The Dodgers still might acquire Randy Johnson and/or Steve Finley, however if they make no other moves, Jayson Werth might platoon with Choi in the short-term. Darren Dreifort is the logical alternative to close in case of a Gagne injury. Owners looking for an immediate advantage after yesterday's deals need to focus on Choi, Penny, and Benson, generally ignoring Zambrano and Wigginton while shopping Felix Rodriguez and the Marlins' new trio of proven veterans.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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