Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from July to August. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from July to August while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Mike Hampton, LH Starter, ATL: -3.37 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between July and August:
2001: 2.98; 2002: 2.78; 2003: 3.72.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	17/17	102.2	150/21	48:38	6-9/0	7.28
August	17/17	115.0	109/17	58:40	10-4/0	3.91

04JUL	4/4	27.1	24/1	14:7	4-0/0	2.96

With a 23444 QA log, Hampton definitely owns the consistent effectiveness necessary to enjoy a very productive August. Of course, we can't expect him to improve significantly after his very impressive July, and he already ranks as a vital contributor for Atlanta who helped push them to the NL East lead. While he dominates few opponents and an 11.3 hit rate concerns me, a 1.91 G-F severely limits his downside compared to many other starters. Unfortunately, Hampton doesn't enjoy a soft upcoming schedule. Following a home start against New York on Friday and an outing in Houston next week, he then opposes Milwaukee, San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. All five teams harbor playoff hopes and own surprisingly strong offenses, creating both qualitative and quantitative problems for Hampton. However, his 6-8 record and 4.92 ERA also don't seem representative of his current fantasy value, so explore ways to acquire the 31-year-old southpaw since he still can contribute solid stats in standard leagues.

Matt Morris, RH Starter, STL: -1.73 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between July and August:
2001: 1.34; 2002: 1.03; 2003: 5.34.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	13/13	73.1	81/6	60:23	4-5/0	4.91
August	13/13	87.2	92/6	64:17	9-1/0	3.18

04JUL	4/4	23.2	28/2	14:8	3-0/0	4.18

The 29-year-old pending free agent ace should return to the Cardinals at a discount after an objectively sub-par season sabotaged by an unexpectedly elevated 1.7 homer rate. Considering Morris' ground-fly rate hasn't budged from 1.44, and he cut down to allowing only one homer every two starts over his past six outings, we even could see him finish the year on a roll. A career-low 5.5 K/9 isn't a problem when combined with a 2.5 BB/9 and an 8.5 H/9 kept low by the second best defense in baseball. Only his poor outing against the Cubs marred his otherwise impressive 34404 current QA log, so although he lacks obvious upside, Morris also appears positioned to win several more games this year while dropping his ERA well under 4.00. Following his Saturday start in San Francisco, he opposes the Mets, Marlins, Reds, and then the Pirates twice. None of these clubs possess particularly scary offenses, and everyone save the Giants and maybe the Marlins should dump a couple of veterans by the time they face Morris. My only serious concern is a week spent in Colorado and Houston at the end of September. Of course, considering Morris' skill as a starter, not to mention his multiple All-Star teammates supporting him at the plate and in the field, take advantage of the general malaise regarding his failure to mature into a $25 roto stud to acquire Morris cheaply.

As Tomo Ohka should miss the rest of the season, I see no reason to discuss him even though he generally improves in August.

The lack of pitchers likely to improve significantly in August seems due to the general increase in offenses, often attributed to warmer weather. However, several teams in both leagues face either particularly daunting or unimpressive schedules, creating more opportunities for savvy owners to gain additional advantages. Pitchers on teams with strong bullpens that oppose weak offenses possess temporarily decreased downside. Conversely, even normally dominant relievers on clubs that lack a solid relief corps easily could struggle when encountering loaded batting orders.

American League teams with above-average bullpens(sorted by RAR) and soft schedules include Anaheim, Texas, and New York. They respectively own the third, first and second best AL relief corps, but none of them play more than 10 games against AL teams with above-average offenses(sorted by RC/G, since ballparks matter for fantasy teams that count stats like ERA). Angels' pitchers offer the most upside since they only oppose above-average offenses in seven August games.

Avoid pitchers on Toronto and Detroit as much as possible. Both clubs possess relatively poor bullpens and face above-average offenses in no less than twenty August games; they also appear likely to dump veterans in the coming weeks. Conversely, while Seattle and Oakland own relatively unimpressive relief corps, both clubs enjoy soft schedules comparable to the opponents faced by Anaheim.

National League teams with above-average bullpens and soft schedules include St. Louis, San Diego, and Los Angeles. The Cardinals own the third best relief corps in the league yet only face above-average offenses in four games; all St. Louis pitchers appear likely to contribute positively to fantasy teams in August. The Padres and Dodgers respectively own the best relief corps in the majors, and both clubs oppose above-average offenses in less than half of their August games.

Avoid all Montreal pitchers save Livan Hernandez and maybe Chad Cordero. With the fourth-worst NL bullpen and twenty-one games against above-average offenses, Expos' fans likely won't enjoy August. Arizona ranks as the sleeper club for NL pitchers since the Diamondbacks only face five teams with above-average offenses, but with Steve Finley headed out of town and Luis Gonzalez soon succumbing to Tommy John surgery, questions regarding their defense make Arizona pitchers risky pick-ups through the end of the season.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Given the historical upside demonstrated by Hampton and Morris, coupled with the strong possibility of each pitcher improving down the stretch, go explore potential trades for either or both pitchers in any league where your team remains in contention and needs starting pitching.