Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose August performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in July. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both July and August over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from July to August while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Juan Pierre qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from his placement on last month's JulyFlys list. Instead of discussing him in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Juan Pierre, OF, FLO: -.069 BA/-.135 OPS. June: acquire
As Pierre's performance generally oscillates crazily all year long, seeing him here again doesn't surprise me. He dropped from an .808 May OPS to a .604 June mark and now owns a .871 OPS this month. I certainly expect his averages to drop due to likely decay in his .370 July BA, although at least a September surge should leave him with acceptable numbers for anyone looking to add him now. While we can't consider him a top offensive player in standard leagues, he still ranks among the most prolific basestealers in the game and maintains a strong BA, making him a worthy pick-up for any contender.
July: target.

Rob Fick, DH/OF, TB: -.118 BA; -.328 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .158/.539; 2002: .083/.118; 2003: .120/.365.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	266	28:41	.286/.358/.470
August	262	24:46	.168/.244/.256

04JUL	44	3:4	.273/.319/.364	

Despite the decent possibility for a September rebound, Fick's normal second half struggles should render him largely useless to fantasy teams. Tampa also still might release him since his position flexibility doesn't help them if he can't maintain an OPS near his .759 career norm. Yes, Fick hasn't suffered much skill degradation and could succeed in the right environment, but 2004 looks like a lost year for the 30-year-old. Only catching-desperate teams that need any offensive upside should not deal or cut Fick.

Ron Belliard, 2B, CLE: -.099 BA; -.280 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .233/.574; 2002: .061/.271; 2003: .021/.001.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	202	8:35	.282/.319/.490
August	168	12:31	.183/.245/.284

04JUL	97	7:13	.258/.321/.361	

I never expected Belliard to challenge for a batting title, and he hasn't registered a monthly BA over .295 since his stunning .417 in April. However, the 29-year-old hinted at a promising future over the past several seasons by demonstrating solid plate discipline, followed by intriguing power potential, and then posted a 4.07 #P/PA last year with Colorado. Of course, he hasn't quite combined all these skills as his patience deteriorated to a 3.68 #P/PA at the moment. He also might not match his .808 OPS as a rookie in 1999, but Belliard's All-Star appearance deservedly raised the profile of a second baseman who should consistently approach double-digit value over the rest of the decade. While you should shop him now before the All-Star aura completely dissipates, remember him in the spring when looking for an undervalued second baseman, since he should find a starting job somewhere like Kansas City, Oakland, or St. Louis.

Torii Hunter, OF, MIN: -.054 BA; -.242 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .052/.194; 2002: .136/.514; 2003: .044/.031.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	273	15:55	.278/.328/.549
August	331	16:67	.224/.260/.375

04JUL	87	7:13	.264/.316/.402	

Hopefully Minnesota management finally will deal a first baseman or outfielder for pitching help within days, thus insuring the remaining established starters receive regular playing time through September. Hunter isn't performing particularly well, however the 29-year-old owns a respectable skill set that allows him to contribute positively to both the Twina and fantasy teams. Unfortunately, even the likelihood of improvement after August isn't enough to make me recommend Hunter now, especially since he appears barely likely to match his 2003 roto value. Contending teams should shop him to see if any competitor still believes in the possibility of Hunter heading towards $25 with strong numbers down the stretch.

Matt Lawton, OF, CLE: -.054 BA; -.206 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .019/.107; 2002: .094/.154; 2003: .059/.491.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	179	23:19	.279/.374/.503
August	231	26:32	.225/.325/.346

04JUL	90	7:12	.222/.293/.422	

Straining his hamstring won't cause Lawton to slump in August, however historical trends, coupled with the 32-year-old's current pace to post a career-best roto value, suggests he soon should slump. Of course, with the Cleveland on the cusp of contending, Lawton should remain in the lineup every day at the expense of any other outfielder, so deciding how to treat him right now depends on your league. Anyone who nabbed him at a severe discount this spring shouldn't move him lightly, however most other owners at least should shop Lawton to see if they can find someone likely to excel over the balance of the year.

Brian Giles, OF, SD: -.059 BA; -.148 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .088/.169; 2002: .055/.234; 2003: .034/.063.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	288	60:42	.316/.435/.635
August	272	66:46	.257/.404/.518

04JUL	81	16:11	.259/.376/.444	

The 33-year-old Giles only owns a .246/.303/.357 line against southpaws, but maintaining both his overall skills and suffering from few other splits indicates Giles remains a potentially superb offensive threat. Of course, Petco isn't helping him, and his value appears headed downward given historical trends. Fortunately, a probable September surge, coupled with his excellent skill set, suggests you at least attempt to acquire Giles at a discount. Watching Giles anchor the offense of a primary playoff contender should compensate your team for the possibility of suffering through a few weeks of questionable averages.

Einar Diaz, C, MON: -.059 BA; -.120 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .035/.087; 2002: .077/.149; 2003: .095/.185.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	209	6:16	.258/.304/.325
August	181	16:17	.199/.249/.260

04JUL	24	2:2	.250/.310/.250	

Expect Diaz to remain in the majors given Montreal's budgetary restrictions and their lack of alternatives at catcher. Unfortunately, he appears unable to contribute to fantasy teams despite some intriguing upside in his past skill sets. While Diaz still owns decent plate discipline, his poor production makes him someone to deal or cut if you see any alternative with respectable potential, especially given the strong chance of Diaz continuing to hurt your BA throughout August.

Randy Winn, OF, SEA: -.074 BA; -.192 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .058/.090; 2002: .115/.175; 2003: .046/.187.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	287	20:56	.345/.390/.523
August	303	30:58	.271/.341/.380

04JUL	96	11:10	.344/.409/.563	

Winn doesn't perform terribly over the last two months of the year; he just doesn't match his July performance. Considering he barely should echo these averages through the end of the season despite respectable skills, I see no reason not to shop him now that his overall numbers appear in line with his previous marks. He again should cruise past $20 if he holds his BA over his .283 career norm, however Winn's limited upside might make him more valuable if included in a trade for help elsewhere.

Lance Berkman, OF, HOU: -.065 BA; -.143 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .086/.156; 2002: .038/.047; 2003: .072/.247.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	289	42:60	.332/.419/.630
August	281	59:70	.267/.397/.509

04JUL	79	18:14	.278/.424/.405	

Yes, Berkman's .456 OBP on the season makes him one of the most valuable batters in baseball, however despite exceptional skills, he isn't fulfilling the expectations he created by posting .331/34/126 and .292/42/128 performances before turning 27. Unfortunately, his relative lack of power over the last two years makes him a difficult player to discuss with other owners. Contenders needing offense probably should keep him, but if you discover someone willing to treat Berkman as a potential .350/50/150 fantasy stud, don't hesitate to deal the 28-year-old since I don't expect him to register great roto stats through September even if Houston keeps Beltran and Kent.

Roberto Alomar, 2B, ARI: -.086 BA; -.186 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .095/.226; 2002: .063/.255; 2003: .066/.039.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	291	38:33	.340/.416/.509
August	284	35:43	.254/.331/.408

04JUL	44	7:8	.341/.431/.523	

As the Future Hall of Famer no longer belongs on a rebuilding Diamondbacks' squad, he should belong to a new team by next week, where he can reclaim the starting job his .370 OBP indicates he merits. Alomar may possess the most upside as a DH right now, but several contenders need help at second base, and he actually looks like a great fit somewhere like Oakland or the Bronx. While he requires a platoon partner to start against left-handers, even the likelihood of an August downturn in his production can't keep me from recommending you acquire Alomar if he finds at least a part-time starting job on a potential playoff team.

Deivi Cruz, SS, SF: -.059 BA; -.179 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2001: .103/.252; 2002: .012/.046; 2003: .068/.244.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	222	6:23	.311/.330/.464
August	309	11:38	.252/.282/.333

04JUL	60	3:6	.250/.288/.433	

With Neifi Perez significantly outplaying Cruz this month, don't be surprised to see the Giants opt for the superior defender down the stretch if they don't add someone like Orlando Cabrera. Of course, while Cruz isn't an impressive hitter at all, his skills suggest much more upside than Perez demonstrates. Cruz owns decent power potential, and developing plate discipline indicates a strong possibility of holding a BA around .300. Although he may lose both playing time and fantasy value by October, anyone desperate for middle infield help should target Cruz as an underrated and likely inexpensive option with intriguing roto upside.

Due to the lack of expected return dates from their respective injuries, I didn't discuss Trot Nixon or Aaron Boone even though both players generally decline in August. Neither player appears particularly likely to contribute in a significant way to fantasy teams this year, so refrain from taking any action regarding them as long as possible.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Shopping any of the current or former All-Stars listed above should net you at least a couple of intriguing offers, however since most of their skill sets remain decent, don't rush to complete anything unless an early trade deadline limits your options. Several teams' lineups, rotations, and bullpens will look noticeably different by Sunday morning, and since the better players discussed today will remain vital contributors on any team regardless of their supporting cast, moving anyone now only leaves you subject to changes affecting the players you add.