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July
22nd
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2004 Pitching: July NL Underachievers
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Casey Fossum, LH Starter
2-8 on a 51:26 K:BB in 67 IP over 13 GS
with 86 H, 14 HR, a 1.27 G-F, and a 6.05 ERA.

As Fossum only exceeded six innings for the first time this season in his last start, durability remains a problem for the 26-year-old, who only returned from off-season shoulder surgery two months ago. A 03205 current QA log only indicates moderate upside, however hit and homer problems appear responsible for most of Fossum's difficulties. He owns a respectable 6.9 K/9 and career-best 1.27 G-F, and his 3.5 BB/9 only seems awful when combined with an 11.6 H/9 and 1.9 HR/9. Unfortunately, Fossum probably needs a friendlier home park, not to mention a stronger defense, in order to overcome his current skill deficiencies. If Arizona insists on expecting him to justify the Curt Schilling trade, he may end up in the bullpen by next season even though I still see the semblance of intriguing skills here. While I expect he eventually will break out as a capable starter, the Diamondbacks' rebuilding projects makes nearly all Arizona pitchers qualitative risks now, so anyone who gambled on Fossum this year should shop him to owners looking toward the future.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Curt Schilling: Fri:NYY(J.Lieber)
Randy Johnson: Sun:COL(J.Jennings)
Kerry Wood: Fri:@PHI(B.Myers)

No starts: Pedro, Mussina, Halladay, T.Hudson, Vazquez, Schmidt, Oswalt, K.Brown, Beckett, Affeldt.

We're not prepared to spend our last move on a new pitcher despite our growing list of injuries, especially since Herges likely will require replacing. While we should consider acquiring a new reliever now, we're going to see if San Francisco acquires someone like Jose Mesa prior to the deadline before opting for a replacement.

We'll keep our offense intact given Piazza' injury, Hudson's playing time questions, Pierre's salary, and the slumps of Crede and Wilkerson. Swapping Schilling and Wood for Pedro and Vazquez will comprise the extent of our moves for now.

The Umpire Hunter(20th lg; 582nd overall)
Week 16b: July 23-July 25

C	Jason Varitek		680 
C	Victor Martinez		450
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Mark Loretta		820 
3B	Scott Rolen		1460 
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Kazuo Matsui		750
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760 
OF	Vernon Wells		1150
OF	Carl Crawford		1040 
OF	Scott Podsednik		980 
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Brad Fullmer		700
DH	Alex Cintron		450 

SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Randy Johnson		1550 
SP	Roy Oswalt		1200 
SP	Jason Schmidt		1240
SP	Jeremy Affeldt		650
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Danny Kolb		940
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 16b: 	29640


Today's Fantasy Rx: Eddie Guardado, Ugueth Urbina, and Jorge Julio all could switch leagues, however since no AL closers save Wickman and Percival are free agents, don't be surprised if only inter-league closer changes occur in the NL. Several middle relievers also should shift teams, however very few AL starters look like trade possibilities. Brian Anderson and Darrell May rank as the likeliest candidates to move, although almost anyone in the Toronto and Seattle rotations similarly seem available. Of course, since I don't envision any impact starters joining the NL, owners in NL-only leagues, if they still own FAAB after the Milton Bradley and Carlos Beltran derbies, should look to grab any offensive talent that arrives on the market in the coming weeks while attempting to deal any resultant hitting surplus for pitching help.


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