Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Garrett Anderson, OF
61/195 for .313/.357/.462 with 7 HR, 28 RBI, 30 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 14:37 BB:K.

Missing nearly two months to recover from an arthritic back will keep Anderson from reaching 115+ RBI for the fifth straight season. Fortunately, he now appears relatively healthy, and Anaheim's outfield depth will let the Angels rest Anderson as necessary to maintain his productivity over the balance of the year. Anderson now gets to spend the next three months hitting next to Vlad in one of baseball's best lineups, giving him significant quantitative upside. As Anderson's 3.58 #P/PA also ranks as his best mark in a decade, he even should maintain a .300 BA despite a drop in his contact rate from .87 to .81 this year; hopefully continued regular at-bats will enable him to return to his normal level of batting effectiveness. Exercise some caution in trade talks since his owner still might consider Anderson a fantasy superstar, however definitely target him if he appears valued under $25 in your league.

Baltimore: Rafael Palmeiro, 1B
79/316 for .250/.359/.408 with 13 HR, 53 RBI, 36 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 56:27 BB:K.

Moving from the Rangers to Orioles accounts for perhaps a ten percent decrease in Palmeiro's homers, however other than the downturn expected from a veteran who turns 40 in September, I see no skill degradation here that supports him losing a hundred points of OPS. Yes, Palmeiro apparently can't hit left-handers any more, but with his 3.93 #P/PA, .18 walk rate, .91 contact rate, and a .74 G-F all among his career-best marks, Palmeiro could dominate down the stretch. While he might hurt your BA and won't hit 38+ homers for the tenth straight year, anyone needing power should seek to acquire Palmeiro immediately.

Boston: Johnny Damon, OF
113/362 for .312/.392/.489 with 12 HR, 48 RBI, 74 R, 11/15 SB%,
and a 47:38 BB:K.

While Damon appears headed to career-best power numbers, he isn't accumulating the steals his owners expected. The power surge also appears unsupported by a 1.62 G-F, and improving from a .88 contact rate to a .90 mark shouldn't place him on pace for 20 homers. Of course, a better contact rate should keep Damon near .300 all year, so as long as you can find steals elsewhere, continue to value him as a $25 player, albeit one with a shifting skill set. Target Damon to see if his current owner discounts his nearly across-the-board development due to the SB drop.

Chicago White Sox: Ross Gload, OF/1B
29/107 for .271/.333/.383 with 2 HR, 20 RBI, 11 R, 0/1 SB%,
and an 8:20 BB:K.

Playing Gload every day doesn't seem like a good idea given his current performance, but with Frank Thomas out indefinitely and Magglio Ordonez still hurting badly, he offers left-handed power that the Chicago lineup lacks. However, Ozzie Guillen appears to prefer deploying Timo Perez or even Joe Borchard every day. Despite a respectable 3.65 #P/PA and the power potential suggested by his combination of a .94 G-F and .81 contact rate, serious contenders must shop Gload until finding an upgrade since I see little possibility of him finding regular at-bats this year.

Cleveland: Jody Gerut, OF
87/345 for .252/.339/.417 with 9 HR, 38 RBI, 54 R, 11/15 SB%,
and a 40:36 BB:K.

Gerut started this season strongly, owning a .287/.382/.452 line at the end of May, but a six-week slump leaves him with a sinking OPS and a potential playing time decrease on an unexpected playoff contender. Fortunately, his skills suggest significant upside. His 3.55 #P/PA and 1.22 G-F appear right in line with his marks last year, and both his .12 walk rate and .90 contact rate support the potential to cruise past $20, especially since his steals already nearly triple his 2003 total. Make a strong push to acquire Gerut since he owns the skills necessary to finish the year near a .300 average.

Detroit: Carlos Pena, 1B
65/271 for .240/.320/.446 with 12 HR, 49 RBI, 43 R, 4/5 SB%,
and a 33:83 BB:K.

As Pena only turned 26 this spring, he still could develop into a potent offensive threat. Unfortunately, despite a 3.99 #P/PA, .93 G-F, and jumping from a .73 contact rate to a .73 mark, his averages haven't budged in three years. Hopefully Detroit will find him a new home somewhere like Pittsburgh or Toronto where the ballpark will aid his development. Unless you see an owner willing to overpay for Pena's potential, wait for now since he at least should continue playing every day and providing decent quantitative numbers.

Kansas City: David DeJesus, OF
16/88 for .182/.265/.227 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 11 R, 2/2 SB%,
and an 8:12 BB:K.
62/197 for .315/.400/.518 with 6 HR, 16 RBI, 38 R, 7/13 SB%,
and a 21:30 BB:K for AAA Omaha(PCL).

The Royals' top position prospect now owns the centerfield job following the Carlos Beltran trade. Although Kansas City fans might be apoplectic given his early performance, DeJesus needs no more minor league time and should develop into a $20 player in 2005. We also can expect improvement over the balance of the season as a 3.79 #P/PA and .86 contact rate aren't bad marks for a 24-year-old with 20/20 potential. Target DeJesus if you see anyone willing to bail following his likely temporary struggles with the Royals this year.

Minnesota: Shannon Stewart, OF
43/148 for .291/.385/.412 with 4 HR, 19 RBI, 16 R, 4/4 SB%,
and a 24:16 BB:K.

Returning after the break following nearly two months on the DL with plantar fasciitis in his right foot, Stewart again assumes leadoff duties for the Twins despite his diminished speed skills. Fortunately, a 3.90 #P/PA, .16 walk rate, .89 contact rate, and 1.21 G-F all rank at or near his career best marks, giving Stewart an excellent chance of improving on his current averages if he remains healthy. Of course, since he appears unlikely to contribute more than a minimal amount in each quantitative category, I see no reason to add Stewart unless you can afford to target someone for just a BA boost.

New York Yankees: John Flaherty, C
12/71 for .169/.213/.296 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 4 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 4:15 BB:K.

While his .267/.297/.457 in 105 at-bats last year didn't impress anyone, Flaherty's current skills compare quite nicely with his 2003 marks. A 3.47 #P/PA also indicates increased patience, so only concerns regarding the normal deterioration experienced by most 36-year-old catchers keep me from unilaterally recommending Flaherty. Teams desperate for any offensive help at catcher can target Flaherty since he appears poised to contribute a couple bucks of fantasy value down the stretch.

Oakland: Eric Chavez, 3B
57/215 for .265/.395/.498 with 14 HR, 38 RBI, 42 R, 5/5 SB%,
and a 46:40 BB:K.

I don't expect Chavez's broken hand to impede his production given his skill development prior to the injury. Not only isn't he struggling against lefties, Chavez owns betters averages against southpaws than right-handed pitchers thus far. A 4.08 #P/PA and .21 walk rate demonstrate welcome improvement in his patience, and respectable marks of a 1.01 G-F and .81 contact rate at least suggest he should maintain his previous power production while his on-base ability and selectivity increase. Given the strong possibility of a second half surge from Chavez, attempt to acquire the healthy third baseman now to anchor your offense.

Seattle: Edgar Martinez, DH
71/290 for .245/.337/.376 with 7 HR, 39 RBI, 71 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 39:65 BB:K.

The Mariners' disappointing season and rebuilding project probably will lead Martinez to retire this winter after one of the more impressive offensive careers in recent memory. He held his OBP over .400 every year for the last decade, and only general skill degradation will keep him below that level this season. While a 3.95 #P/PA remains very solid, a .13 walk rate, .78 contact rate, and 1.28 G-F appear well off his established norms. Expecting a significant rebound from the 41-year-old looks like a mistake, so only target him as inexpensive injury filler rather than as a hitter capable of reaching double-digit fantasy value with a dynamic second half.

Tampa Bay: Brook Fordyce, C
18/97 for .194/.242/.258 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:22 BB:K.

Dropping from a .87 contact rate to a .77 mark accounts for the plummeting BA of Fordyce; joining the team in the worst AL park for home runs while increasing his ground-fly rate helps explain his power outage. Fordyce simply ranks among the worst players to own in fantasy baseball. Since I don't expect a significant increase in his averages barring an unlikely skill rebound from the 34-year-old, deal or cut him if he remains on your roster for any reason.

Texas: Alfonso Soriano, 2B
113/383 for .295/.336/.483 with 18 HR, 61 RBI, 51 R, 9/12 SB%,
and a 20:77 BB:K.

Soriano's season makes little sense considering his move to the very hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field and the support he receives from Mike Young, Hank Blalock, and Mark Teixeira. The 28-year-old second baseman also owns a career-best .68 G-F and his other skills remain similar to his marks with the Yankees, suggesting he should own an OPS near .900. Unfortunately, massive struggles on the road, combined with a significant decrease in stolen base opportunities, leave him with barely half of his 2003 fantasy value. Yes, Soriano should improve down the stretch, but only target him if you see the opportunity to add him at a substantial discount from his former $40 status.

Toronto: Josh Phelps, DH/1B
66/283 for .233/.294/.385 with 9 HR, 45 RBI, 34 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 18:69 BB:K.

We expected the 26-year-old DH to cruise towards 30 homers in a full-time role. Instead Phelps' power potential substantially decreased as his ground-fly ratio, already up to 1.37 G-F last year from a .97 mark in 2002, now stands at a terrible 2.12 G-F. At least he now owns a .76 contact rate, which suggests he should return to a .300 BA if stops hitting so many fly balls. However, until we see some skill development along those lines or even a firm commitment by the Blue Jays to let Phelps play through his struggles, shop the youngster to rebuilding clubs looking for a potential sleeper power source.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League underachieving batters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Only four National League teams appear likely to dump pending free agents and even arbitration-eligible players prior to July 31st: Montreal, Arizona, Colorado, and Pittsburgh. Of the hitters I expect to depart these teams, Orlando Cabrera, Steve Finley, and Royce Clayton all appear very likely to stay in the NL. Jeromy Burnitz, Tony Batista, and Danny Bautista could go to almost any contender, and we even might see expensive studs like Preston Wilson and Larry Walker moved. However, we likely won't see a better fantasy baseball hitter than Carl Everett move from the NL to the AL this season. AL-only owners in need of offense should strongly consider making a maximum FAAB bid on Everett. He should flourish with the White Sox for the second year in a row and his extra two weeks in the AL should let him to exceed the contributions of any other crossover position player dealt by July 31st.