Today's Fantasy Rx

To qualify for consideration, a pitcher must have at least 75 IP in both halves over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of 0.75 ERA between the two halves. They also must show either an ERA improvement or decline from the first half to the second half while registering at least 25 IP in both halves of each of the last three years.

Steve Trachsel, RH Starter, NYM: -2.16 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 3.98; 2002: 1.15; 2003: 1.81.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	50/50	284	313/42	170:110	16-23/0	4.91
2nd H	41/41	268	229/28	190:71	22-11/0	2.75

04 1st	18/18	113	102/13	61:42	9-6/0	3.18

The largely unexpected success of Tom Glavine, Al Leiter, Braden Looper, and even Orber Moreno this year helps camouflage Trachsel's fantasy contribution, yet he leads the Mets in wins and should remain effective thanks to an acceptable walk rate and helpful defensive support. His 33243 current QA log similarly depicts a consistently effective pitcher who can help roto teams despite limited dominance. My biggest concern here is that he doesn't enjoy a favorable schedule until nearly September. After opposing the Marlins on Tuesday and then starting twice against Atlanta, Trachsel seems scheduled to face St. Louis, Houston, and Colorado, leaving him rather vulnerable qualitatively over his next half-dozen starts. Since neither his diminished command nor a .99 G-F this season suggest he can survive the run through Busch and Coors without seeing his ERA stagger upward, wait until Trachsel's trade value sufficiently drops before attempting to add him towards the end of August.

Keith Foulke, RH Closer, BOS: -2.01 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 0.68; 2002: 3.09; 2003: 1.44.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	0/116	135.2	112/12	122:35	11-10/51	3.32
2nd H	0/93	109.2	67/8	99:20	4-4/45	1.31

04 1st	0/39	47.0	34/2	40:11	2-2/13	1.53

While we know that Foulke can't match his average ERA improvement in the second half, don't be surprised to see his ERA at least edge downward. Increasing his ground-fly ratio from .50 in 2003 to .74 this season gives him nearly 50% more groundballs, a welcome improvement that nicely reduces his downside. Of course, most Foulke owners care more about his save totals, and he might not improve as much as hoped given Boston's strong offense and a solid pitching staff likely to add reinforcements by the end of the month. However, you at least can expect another few dozen innings of very helpful qualitative marks, making him a good target for anyone looking for bullpen help.

Wade Miller, RH Starter, HOU: -1.83 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 0.92; 2002: 3.43; 2003: 1.38.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	49/49	298.1	291/37	242:108	21-15/0	4.47
2nd H	42/42	265.2	211/25	246:107	24-10/0	2.64

04 1st	15/15	88.2	76/11	74:44	7-7/0	3.35

A frayed rotator cuff appears likely to prevent Miller's return from the DL until no earlier than August, effectively invalidating his otherwise respectably 04442 current QA log. Career-worst marks of a 4.8 walk rate and .79 G-F leave him very vulnerable to qualitative disasters, especially for someone pitching home games in Minute Maid. Of course, Miller still owns respectable overall stats, including a solid 7.5 K/9, and he could tally a half-dozen more wins if he starts ten more times. Unfortunately, since he also could remain out through September, you need to wait and monitor his progress before considering him for your rotation.

Cory Lidle, RH Starter, CIN: -1.80 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 1.31; 2002: 2.61; 2003: 0.61.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	50/51	304.1	350/42	195:74	14-19/0	5.26
2nd H	40/40	268.1	227/22	146:72	19-12/0	3.46

04 1st	19/19	121.1	126/14	76:32	6-7/0	4.82

Lidle's 44344 current QA log should convince you that he merits much more attention than his current ERA otherwise suggests. Bumping his ground-fly rate from 1.68 to 1.93 G-F, his strikeout rate from 5.2 to 5.6 K/9, and even cutting his walk rate from 2.8 to 2.4 BB/9 gives Lidle very solid across-the-board skills. I see no indication that Lidle can't win several more games while posting an ERA near 3.50, especially if Cincinnati falls out of the race and deals him to a contender, making him an excellent starter to acquire in almost any league.

Glendon Rusch, LH Swingman, CHC: -1.66 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 0.78; 2002: 0.46; 2003: 4.67.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	52/53	289.2	376/36	217:92	10-23/0	5.81
2nd H	34/46	223.1	238/28	172:72	9-17/1	4.15

04 1st	10/14	71.0	73/7	48:15	4-1/0	4.06

If Mark Prior's elbow discomfort turns into a major problem, Rusch could emerge as the unexpected savior of the Cubs' rotation. All his skills appear right in line with his marks from his best seasons with the Mets, and Dusty Baker's desire to keep a lefty in the rotation should insure Chicago leaves alternatives like Ryan Dempster and Angel Guzman in the bullpen barring other injuries. Of course, Prior, as well as all the overworked Cubs' starters, might not miss another start, but Rusch's upside makes him an intriguing target since he owns the skills necessary to reach double-digit wins with a sub-4.00 ERA this year.

Kelvim Escobar, RH Starter, ANA: -1.41 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 2.19; 2002: 1.25; 2003: 0.83.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	12/103	174.1	175/17	174:85	9-14/18	4.80
2nd H	25/73	210.0	182/16	191:89	15-10/24	3.39

04 1st	17/17	103.2	98/9	86:40	5-5/0	3.91

One of the year's most underrated free agents continues impressing despite a surprisingly low win total. His 34344 current QA log demonstrates his limited downside, not to mention the intriguing upside of a starter with nearly all solid skills yet a limited profile that might increase his availability in most leagues. Only Escobar's 3.5 BB/9 concerns me at all; even slipping from a 1.54 G-F to a 1.08 mark doesn't leave him particularly vulnerable to a homer rate spike thanks to moving from Toronto to Anaheim. Any AL owners seeking starting pitching should attempt to acquire Escobar before his increasing success renders him virtually untouchable.

Livan Hernandez, RH Starter, MON: -1.33 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 1.87; 2002: 1.18; 2003: 0.96.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	56/56	368	426/46	237:114	21-27/0	4.87
2nd H	44/44	308	298/24	213:99	19-14/0	3.54

04 1st	19/19	135.2	130/16	102:41	6-8/0	3.58

As the 29-year-old horse no longer qualifies as more than a moderate injury risk, only the limitations of pitching for the Expos keep Hernandez from earning recognition as a true ace. Although his 23440 current QA log doesn't give Hernandez much momentum right now, he remains one of baseball's most underrated pitchers given his increasingly impressive skill set. I see nothing wrong here other than a mildly elevated homer rate, making him an excellent target for teams seeking qualitative help. He may not win more than another half-dozen games unless Montreal's offense unexpectedly improves down the stretch, but Hernandez should approach $20 for the second straight season.

Rick White, RH Reliever, CLE: -1.26 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 0.85; 2002: 2.03; 2003: 0.54.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	0/83	104.2	121/15	63:33	4-7/1	5.25
2nd H	0/82	94.2	86/9	83:36	6-7/2	3.99

04 1st	0/37	43.1	46/7	19:17	3-4/1	3.95

While White ranks as perhaps Cleveland's most consistent reliever this season, his poor command makes him a very questionable fantasy play. Yes, his abrupt drop from a 7.3 K/9 in 2003 to a 4.2 K/9 with the Indians mostly hurts his teammates' stats since he doesn't strand as many runners, but despite respectable walk, hit, and homer rates, I just see little upside in either White's skills or role. Wait until you need a temporary injury replacement before employing him this season.

Octavio Dotel, RH Closer, OAK: -1.08 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 1.45; 2002: 1.44; 2003: 0.09.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	4/122	172.1	125/15	204:66	16-10/6	2.77
2nd H	0/98	117.0	65/6	156:39	3-3/6	1.69

04 1st	0/41	46.0	44/6	65:20	1-5/16	4.30

Take advantage of Dotel's unimpressive AL debut to acquire him from any owner unsatisfied with his FAAB expenditure. His career-best 12.7 K/9 minimizes the downside of a poor .52 G-F, and even an elevated walk rate doesn't concern me given Oakland's respective defense, very friendly pitchers' park, and Dotel's overall skill set. Consider him among the league's top closers for the rest of this season.

Billy Wagner, LH Closer, PHI: -0.85 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 0.57; 2002: 0.87; 2003: 1.22.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	0/116	124.2	91/11	150:39	5-7/58	2.67
2nd H	0/66	99.0	56/9	122:26	2-4/60	1.82

04 1st	0/28	30.2	23/4	42:3	3-0/13	3.52

Despite missing most of May and pitching poorly in June, Wagner again looks like a top closer after not allowing a run this month. The combination of a 12.3 K/9 and a 0.9 BB/9 gives him as much upside as any reliever in baseball, especially since his 1.12 G-F doesn't suggest any pending homer spike. Wagner's only problem is that the Phillies' prolific offense limits save opportunities, but teams needing saves still should target him if his low save total makes Wagner available at a discount.

Matt Clement, RH Starter, CHC: -0.76 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between the 1st and 2nd Half:
2001: 1.01; 2002: 0.53; 2003: 0.65.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	53/53	321.1	291/36	277:138	17-19/0	4.54
2nd H	42/42	254.2	212/19	243:111	18-17/0	3.78

04 1st	18/18	117.1	94/10	123:45	7-8/0	2.92

The pending free agent might rank as the best pitcher available this winter if he maintains his current skill level. A 54044 current QA log nicely illustrates Clement's upside, and only the Cubs' inconsistent offense will keep his win total under 20. Although his sub-3.00 ERA likely will make him quite costly in trade talks, Clement warrants a significant price from anyone desperate to add one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. His strong first half should carry him towards a $20 fantasy value, making him an excellent target if you need a qualitative boost and can afford the likely lofty asking price.

Rather surprisingly, not a single MLB pitcher matched the qualifications listed at the top of this article while consistently increasing his ERA in the second half.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While I see no reason not to target the relievers listed, I see significantly more upside in seeking to add at least one of these starters given that their qualitative impact normally exceeds a reliever's contributions at least by a factor of two. Of course, although Clement and Trachsel now rank among baseball's most productive pitchers, Lidle, Rusch, Escobar, and Hernandez offer more upside since each appears generally undervalued. Lidle's ERA seems much too high for his WHIP. Despite owning rather impressive skills, Rusch hasn't contributed significantly to fantasy teams in a few years, and he isn't guaranteed a starting job. Lastly, Escobar and Hernandez simply aren't winning many games despite great skills. However, adding even one member of this quartet should pay welcome dividends down the stretch since even Rusch owns a good chance of reaching double-digit value by October.