Today's Fantasy Rx

To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 300 AB in both halves over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .025 BA and .050 OPS between the two halves. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from the first half to the second half while registering at least 75 at-bats in both halves of each of the last three years.

Mike Sweeney, 1B/DH, KC: -.068 BA; -.237 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .075/.244; 2002: .058/.174; 2003: .059/.276.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	853	121:99	.340/.420/.596
2nd H	569	68:67	.272/.352/.427

04 1st	294	22:28	.279/.335/.490	

Back problems throughout the first half limited Sweeney's batting effectiveness, yet he still managed to compile an intriguing skill set. A .90 contact rate nearly matches his previous high, and a .81 G-F easily ranks as a career-best, combing with his contact rate to give him intriguingly high quantitative upside. Unfortunately, the power potential gains appeared to cost Sweeney much of his value to the Royals. He dropped from a 3.74 #P/PA in 2003 to a troublesome 3.41 mark this season, an erosion in his plate patience that dragged his walk rate down from .46 to only .07. The resulting .056 OBP drop doesn't overly hurt roto owners since he increased his SLG by nearly as much while only losing a little BA, but the decrease still reduces his overall value in 5x5 and any league using more advanced metrics. Losing Carlos Beltran with Matt Stairs, Juan Gonzalez, Joe Randa, and Benito Santiago all either injured or soon departing also will cut his Runs and RBI. When we consider Sweeney normally slumps in the second half, I see no recourse save to recommend you search for an acceptable deal from anyone willing to treat Sweeney as more than a $15-20 power source.

Rob Fick, DH/OF/1B, TB: -060. BA; -.196 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .072/.266; 2002: .045/.149; 2003: .067/.203.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	755	72:105	.297/.358/.506
2nd H	611	55:94	.237/.306/.362

04 1st	169	17:28	.213/.286/.349	

Hopefully free agents soon will realize that Tampa's wave of young position players means that the Rays no longer have starting jobs available for any journeyman looking for regular at-bats. Of course, Fick still possesses the skills to rebound, and he offers intriguing upside in leagues where he qualifies at catcher. However, he just isn't worth the risk in standard leagues, making him someone you should deal or cut, especially if you can acquire one of his younger teammates like Joey Gathright or even B.J. Upton as a replacement. I don't expect Fick to see more than a few at-bats a week even if he rebounds in September as usual.

Paul Lo Duca, C, LA: -.071 BA; -.189 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .048/.147; 2002: .093/.233; 2003: .081/.237.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	835	65:61	.323/.380/.489
2nd H	773	52:54	.252/.306/.374

04 1st	304	17:23	.313/.355/.461	

Despite scalding the all in April, a summer slump left Lo Duca below his normal averages heading into the break. Unfortunately, he stands little chance of maintaining a .300 BA even though he appears more prepared to weather the warmer months of the season than in past years; is .92 contact rate simply isn't particularly impressive after the .95 mark he posted in 2003. With no evidence of obvious power development and historical trends strongly suggesting upcoming problems for Lo Duca owners, look to deal him before his fading BA further diminishes his value.

Ruben Sierra, DH/OF, NYY: -.057 BA; -.164 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .039/.181; 2002: .096/.295; 2003: .064/.155.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	660	49:107	.298/.344/.506
2nd H	410	28:58	.241/.288/.398

04 1st	159	12:26	.270/.313/.472	

Sierra should cede at-bats to Kenny Lofton and even Tony Clark over the rest of the season, however limited skill development demonstrates the potential for Sierra to maintain his current averages. After posting a career-worst 1.51 G-F in 2003, Sierra's 1.17 mark this season indicates a welcome increase in the power potential of the 38-year-old. While I don't expect him to find regular at-bats again, he won't hurt you as a fifth outfielder or utility player, especially since he should contribute another half-dozen homers and an acceptable average. Wait until you see a noticeable drop in his playing time before looking to remove Sierra from your roster.

J.D. Drew, OF, ATL: -.026 BA; -.130 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .028/.208; 2002: .031/.070; 2003: .037/.134.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	643	87:138	.297/.385/.561
2nd H	443	63:89	.271/.369/.447

04 1st	282	61:58	.312/.434/.628	

Drew finally stayed healthy for a full half and compiled the outstanding numbers everyone always expected only to lose his All-Star spot to a 40-year-old shortstop with a .295/.344/.403 in 258 at-bats at the behest of a 73-year-old manager. Philadelphia fans will view the snub as a result of karma, however if Drew avoids injury, those same fans won't appreciate that his career year will keep the Phillies out of the playoffs. Johnny Estrada and Drew have kept Atlanta in contention this season, and as the 28-year-old pending free agent usually slumps down the stretch due to injury complications, I see little reason he won't strongly echo this performance in the second half. Only his .79 contact rate troubles me, but dropping from a 1.38 G-F to a .98 mark indicates his 30/100 pace isn't a fluke. Shop Drew to see if you can find someone willing to trade more than $30 of talent with the expectation of him posting a .300 BA down the stretch, although don't worry if no one bites since Drew should continue his power production through October.

Eric Karros, 1B/DH, OAK: -.058 BA; -.127 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .033/.051; 2002: .051/.107; 2003: .089/.247.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	717	55:103	.289/.341/.444
2nd H	581	51:118	.231/.295/.363

04 1st	97	7:16	.196/.248/.320	

With Scott Hatteberg and Erubiel Durazo mashing and Dan Johnson and Graham Koonce performing equally well at AAA Sacramento, Karros appears headed out of town within the next couple weeks. Of course, his poor .203/.262/.339 performance against southpaws gives him little value to any team, so he shouldn't receive many at-bats no matter where he lands. If you still own him in the hope of a rebound, feel free to deal or cut Karros since nothing in his statistical profile indicates he should manage more than neutral fantasy value over the balance of 2004.

Einar Diaz, C, MON: -.035 BA; -.103 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .092/.229; 2002: .021/.090; 2003: .011/.010.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	667	34:68	.264/.314/.366
2nd H	424	9:35	.229/.270/.307

04 1st	66	4:6	.197/.260/.258

Departing Texas apparently destroyed Diaz's already mediocre skills. He fell from a 3.48 to 3.32 #P/PA and owns an unimpressive 1.50 G-F after managing a 1.11 mark last season. Yes, he still owns a good contact rate, but I see no indication of an approach at the plate that will enable the 31-year-old to reemerge as more than fantasy injury filler. As he also should warrant discussion in two weeks since he slumps in August, deal or cut Diaz unless desperate for any catcher with even moderate upside.

Sean Casey, 1B, CIN: -.032 BA; -.102 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .045/.149; 2002: .035/.110; 2003: .029/.082.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	938	83:104	.302/.364/.440
2nd H	593	54:64	.270/.333/.369

04 1st	287	23:21	.352/.402/.606	

Yes, Casey excelled in the first half thanks to the combination of career-best marks of a .93 contact rate and 1.29 G-F. Unfortunately, he also posted a career-worst 3.14 #P/PA, indicating abrupt backtracking after several seasons of demonstrating decent plate discipline. Seeing significantly fewer pitches normally leads to diminished production, and with Casey also suffering from a strained right calf, the publicity he received from the All-Star game makes now your best chance to deal him before he experiences his normal second half slump.

Juan Encarnacion, OF, LA: -.027 BA; -.101 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .046/.197; 2002: .015/.069; 2003: .033/.086.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	949	69:160	.274/.324/.466
2nd H	653	39:128	.247/.294/.395

04 1st	283	18:45	.240/.292/.431	

While Encarnacion barely qualifies as a solid starting outfielder during his best seasons, a drop in his contact rate down to .84 leaves him with an awful OBP that negates his respectable power. He also remains at high risk of losing playing time even if he returns next week from a disabled list trip necessitated by shoulder tendonitis. Jayson Werth merits a starting job, and if Los Angeles acquires another first baseman or outfielder as expected, we might see Dave Roberts, Werth, and Encarnacion sharing a single lineup spot. If you see Encarnacion playing regularly a week from now, make every attempt to deal him before the combination of his injury, Encarnacion's historical second-half slump, and the pending loss of at-bats truncates his fantasy value.

Orlando Palmeiro, OF, HOU: -.030 BA; -.078 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .086/.211; 2002: .014/.039; 2003: .004/.017.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	429	44:45	.287/.357/.364
2nd H	381	43:32	.257/.325/.318

04 1st	78	9:10	.231/.318/.385	

Changing from Richard Hidalgo to Carlos Beltran and now from Jimy Williams to Phil Garner should lead to Palmeiro only seeing perhaps another three dozen at-bats this season. Of course, since he owns career-best marks of a 4.46 #P/PA and .74 G-F, he offers some upside in a platoon role, but his small chance of receiving regular at-bats means that he possesses negligible fantasy value. Deal or cut Palmeiro, especially since his averages should decrease despite his respectable skills.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While nearly everyone expects drops from surprising All-Star caliber players like Lo Duca, Drew, and Casey, Sweeney's power production might convince you to overlook his increasing downside thanks to his health questions, diminishing lineup support, and historical second half struggles. However, unless you see him available at an obvious bargain, you shouldn't seek to add Sweeney, and at least attempt to find an acceptable trade anywhere you already own him.