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July 15th 2004 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 300 AB in both halves over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .025 BA and .050 OPS between the two halves. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from the first half to the second half while registering at least 75 at-bats in both halves of each of the last three years.
Roger Cedeno, OF, STL: +.032 BA; +.081 OPS Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half: 2001: .042/.133; 2002: .030/.065; 2003: .030/.249. 01-03 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG 1st H 842 69:147 .259/.316/.347 2nd H 676 47:114 .291/.337/.407 04 1st 72 7:10 .278/.338/.403 While he isn't running often this season, Cedeno doesn't even turn 30 for another month, so he expecting him to swipe at least a half-dozen bases over the next couple months appears reasonable. LaRussa's decision to spot start Cedeno against right-handers also reduces his BA downside, and his combination of an improved contact rate, higher groundball rate, and decreasing patience increases his overall quantitative potential. Of course, he probably will finish 2004 under $5, but the Cardinals' uncertain left field situation at least gives Cedeno the chance to approach double-digit value if he finds regular playing time.
Scott Spiezio, 3B, SEA: +.036 BA; +.079 OPS Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half: 2001: .061/.134; 2002: .038/.112; 2003: .014/.011. 01-03 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG 1st H 702 82:97 .255/.334/.409 2nd H 767 65:86 .291/.349/.473 04 1st 248 24:45 .218/.292/.379 Soft tissue damage in Spiezio's back cost him the first two weeks of the season, and while he pounded the ball over the rest of April, he hasn't exceeded a .629 OPS in any of the last three months. He continues to struggles against right-handers and southpaws while excelling during neither home nor away games. However, he also owns career-best marks of a 3.74 #P/PA and a .53 G-F, so we can trace his struggles to a .82 contact rate, his worst mark since 2000, Spiezio's last year as a part-time player. Seattle's rebuilding efforts also could result in him losing at-bats over the balance of the season, but the possible playing time decrease only makes him a more attractive target at this time. I still have significant faith in the ability of the 31-year-old to rebound and earn his salary over the next few seasons, so teams struggling to find a solid cornerman or utility player should seek Spiezio in trade talks.
Magglio Ordonez, OF, CHW: +.033 BA; +.077 OPS Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half: 2001: .017/.007; 2002: .033/.148; 2003: .051/.080. 01-03 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG 1st H 967 103:139 .299/.369/.535 2nd H 822 77:81 .332/.395/.586 04 1st 179 14:19 .302/.357/.503 Since he returned from knee surgery over a week ago, can DH every day with Frank Thomas now injured, Ordonez, and no longer appears a likely trade candidate given Chicago's offensive needs, Ordonez seems like a good sleeper to target. Of course, losing Thomas also reduces Ordonez's quantitative upside, and his knee problems give us little reason to expect many steals this year. His 3.48 #P/PA, .08 walk rate, and 1.45 G-F also rank as his worst marks since at least 1999, however a .89 contact rate at least indicates a high likelihood that Ordonez can hold a .300 BA. While valuing him at more than $30 still seems a mistake, Ordonez remains a top fantasy hitter who should improve over the balance of the season.
Kenny Lofton, OF, NYY: +.029 BA; +.068 OPS Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half: 2001: .046/.131; 2002: .018/.067; 2003: .031/.032. 01-03 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG 1st H 855 90:102 .260/.331/.400 2nd H 741 75:91 .289/.354/.445 04 1st 118 16:8 .297/.378/.449 Lofton's value over the next few months depends on either the general health of the Yankees or where New York deals him. If he stays put, I don't envision Lofton earning more than a few more bucks given his place in a 1B/OF/DH rotation that includes the three All-Stars starters, Bernie Williams, and part-time players Tony Clark and Ruben Sierra. However, if dealt somewhere like Philadelphia, Lofton again could flourish, but since the Yankees appear more likely to keep him as injury insurance, only target him as a fifth outfielder with mildly intriguing upside.
Aubrey Huff, , TB: +.030 BA; +.064 OPS Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half: 2001: .023/.022; 2002: .052/.121; 2003: .016/.050. 01-03 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG 1st H 714 55:111 .279/.335/.471 2nd H 787 58:96 .309/.354/.516 04 1st 334 34:33 .269/.340/.425 As a .10 walk rate and .90 contact rate indicate Huff certainly still possesses the skills necessary to hit .300, I wouldn't be surprised if he posts the .330+ BA over the balance of 2004 necessary for him to finish the year near his previous averages. Jumping from 1.33 to a 1.50 G-F only indicates a mild drop in power potential, and the quantitative boost he receives from Tampa's improved lineup should compensate for him failing to hit 30 homers. Of course, his mediocre numbers might convince some owners that the 27-year-old posted a fluke season last year, and you should definitely take advantage of any such error. At least attempt to acquire Huff in every league since his performance in July and September should more than offset a likely August slump.
Gabe Kapler, OF, BOS: +.030 BA; +.060 OPS Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half: 2001: .036/.024; 2002: .036/.127; 2003: .013/.034. 01-03 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG 1st H 514 50:88 .257/.320/.393 2nd H 509 49:76 .287/.351/.422 04 1st 139 9:22 .266/.313/.367 Although the 28-year-old still displays the echoes of a once-impressive skill set, his window to a career as a big league starter closes a little more every year. Kapler's 3.73 #P/PA and 1.41 G-F represent an improvement over his 2003 marks, but he no longer seems to possess the patience necessary to maintain the .275/.350/.425 line he needs to post to earn more playing time. While he may total a half-dozen homers and steals this season, his mediocre average and minimal overall quantitative contribution leaves him with more than a few bucks of value at the end of an increasingly deep bench. However, his poor performance and likely limited upside conversely makes him an inexpensive player to acquire in deeper leagues. Kapler still can crush many left-handers and certainly won't hurt you as a fifth outfielder, so strongly consider adding him you own an extra outfield or reserve spot.
David Eckstein, SS, ANA: +.040 BA; +.052 OPS Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half: 2001: .018/.017; 2002: .044/.065; 2003: .047/.071. 01-03 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG 1st H 914 79:85 .261/.341/.346 2nd H 728 45:64 .301/.361/.378 04 1st 280 17:25 .293/.349/.346 Yes, Eckstein could lose his job if Anaheim deals for Nomar, but Anaheim should realize that their former sparkplug still possesses solid leadoff skills. The 29-year-old should blow past his 2004 value on his way to approaching the $25 season he posted two years ago. Of course, Eckstein's diminishing speed means he'll finish closer to $20, especially since he should suffer another September slump, however his contribution in BA and Runs makes him a very useful player in 5x5 leagues. Anyone even seeking just a strong BA boost should seek to acquire Eckstein since his general mediocrity since the Angels' World Series should result in a low trade cost.
Bobby Abreu, OF, PHI: +.028 BA; +.050 OPS Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half: 2001: .014/.032; 2002: .011/.045; 2003: .061/.066. 01-03 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG 1st H 935 186:208 .286/.402/.491 2nd H 802 133:172 .314/.409/.534 04 1st 304 72:63 .306/.440/.569 Expecting Abreu to improve on his All-Star performance seems foolish, however I see nothing that indicates he isn't headed for a career-year. A 4.31 #P/PA, .24 walk rate, 1.23 G-F, .79 contact rate, and even his 95% SB success rate all appear in line with his previous best marks. The Phillies' lineup remains largely loaded, leaving Abreu paired next to another MVP candidate in Jim Thome, and CB Park looks like a great place for hitters thus far. With the 30-year-old Abreu in his prime and able to take advantage of these helpful factors, not mention the excellent chance that he at least will maintain his current skills, he should rank near the top of any contender's list of players to acquire for the second half.
SP(6) No starts: Randy, T.Hudson, K.Brown, Beckett, & Affeldt. Schilling's health questions and Schmidt's Coors start leave us with exactly six safe starts. Wells stays benched and we have no cap room for Pierre. Blalock, Fullmer, & Loretta return to our lineup, forcing Piazza, Orlando Hudson, and Crede to the bench. Perhaps Hudson will rebound in Texas, but the respective recent performances of these players leads to exercise caution in deploying him.
The Umpire Hunter(19th lg; 546th overall) C Jason Varitek 680 C Victor Martinez 450 1B Lyle Overbay 400 1B Mark Teixeira 760 2B Alfonso Soriano 1930 2B Mark Loretta 820 3B Scott Rolen 1460 3B Hank Blalock 850 SS Alex Rodriguez 2010 SS Kazuo Matsui 750 OF Carlos Beltran 1760 OF Carl Crawford 1040 OF Scott Podsednik 980 OF Brad Wilkerson 690 OF Adam Dunn 690 OF Miguel Cabrera 570 DH Brad Fullmer 700 DH Alex Cintron 450 SP Pedro Martinez 1800 SP Mike Mussina 1380 SP Roy Halladay 1350 SP Javier Vazquez 1280 SP Roy Oswalt 1200 SP Kerry Wood 1190 RP Eric Gagne 1890 RP Octavio Dotel 1250 RP Danny Kolb 940 RP Matt Herges 670 Total Salary for Week 15b: 28960
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