Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the next four days reviewing players whose second half performances historically differ dramatically from their first half stats. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 300 AB in both halves over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .025 BA and .050 OPS between the two halves. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from the first half to the second half while registering at least 75 at-bats of both halves in each of the last three years.

Today and tomorrow we'll focus on improving hitters, followed by declining hitters, and then we'll spend Saturday discussing pitchers.

Carlos Beltran, OF, HOU: +.054 BA; +.180 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .095/.304; 2002: .040/.125; 2003: .024/.108.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	939	101:191	.269/.341/.450
2nd H	836	94:145	.323/.391/.580

04 1st	323	45:51	.276/.365/.548	

Yes, his .189/.295/.541 performance this month contributed to Jimy Williams' firing today, however Beltran's .263/.358/.614 line since joining the Astros completely vindicates his acquisition by Houston. Other than a slight drop in his steal total, his skills nearly all rank as the best marks of his career, including a .14 walk rate, 3.97 #P/PA, and a .85 G-F; even his .84 contact rate appears in line with his established numbers. Beltran certainly merited his All-Star spot, and considering the Astros remain within one good week of the Wild Card, he absolutely should remain in Houston all season. Given the likelihood we'll see his averages improve over the balance of this year, also at least make an attempt to acquire this roto star in all leagues, especially if he costs less than usual due to the incongruous trade rumors surrounding the contending Astros.

Royce Clayton, SS, COL: +.082 BA; +.159 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .025/.334; 2002: .072/.096; 2003: .048/.020.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	762	60:136	.214/.273/.331
2nd H	496	42:95	.296/.352/.411

04 1st	322	26:66	.298/.355/.453	

Although Clayton might improve down the stretch, don't expect him to improve on his current averages. Only a dynamic .339/.411/.564 home performance negates his awful .247/.295/.324 road line, making him useful only around half the time even in relatively deep leagues. An intriguing group of young AAA infielders, led by shortstop Clint Barmes, also could steal Clayton's playing time in the second half, making him extremely expendable on a rebuilding Rockies' team. Of course, Colorado also failed to trade Jay Payton last July prior to non-tendering him in December, however even if Clayton stays in Coors, he could lose his starting job even if he improves his performance. I see little reason not to shop him over the next couple weeks.

Barry Bonds, OF, SF: +.058 BA; +.142 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .050/.142; 2002: .059/.091; 2003: .072/.178.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	747	281:122	.321/.515/.775
2nd H	522	242:76	.379/.578/.854

04 1st	189	131:19	.365/.628/.794	

Only health problems appear able to prevent Bonds from somehow improving his already stunning numbers. Hank Aaron's heir hasn't posted an OBP under .532 in any month this year; no player had exceeded Ted Williams' .552 mark from 1941 until Bonds' .582 in 2002, and now Bonds seemingly will beat that record by nearly a stunning ten percent. However, despite a .76 G-F, his worst mark since 1997, a career-best .90 contact rate gives him a chance to push his average closer to .400 while boosting his SLG towards his normal .850 mark in the second half. Even discussing these lofty statistical heights seems somewhat surreal, and only his BA keeps him extremely useful in 4x4 leagues since Bonds lacks both speed and significant RBI totals, but Bonds remains perhaps the safest statistical gamble in the game. If he plays another 60 games as I expect, he should cruise to another $40 season. Feel free to acquire Bonds to anchor your BA and power numbers.

Jeff Bagwell, 1B, HOU: +.035 BA; +.134 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .042/.134; 2002: .044/.107; 2003: .016/.157.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	988	155:212	.270/.374/.494
2nd H	788	140:172	.305/.411/.591

04 1st	310	55:81	.268/.386/.432	

Discounting the Astros' playoff chances qualifies as an obvious mistake given the strong likelihood that Carlos Beltran and Bagwell both will improve over the balance of the season. Of course, unless Phil Garner realizes that Houston's lineup functions best with Beltran and Bagwell between Biggio and Berkman in the top half of the order, the wasted at-bats awarded Adam Everett might cost them a couple of crucial games. The 36-year-old Bagwell remains a potent OBP force, and only his power numbers appear significantly below expectations. A career-worst ..75 contact rate helps explain that erosion, although I still expect Bagwell to finish the year near a .280/30/90 line, which still ranks him among the league's better first baseman. While he longer looks like an elite hitter, I still consider him someone to acquire in any league where you need to add a significant bat.

Gary Bennett, C, MIL: +.064 BA; +.132 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .075/.154; 2002: .020/.027; 2003: .100/.215.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	371	31:74	.218/.286/.288
2nd H	358	20:43	.282/.326/.380

04 1st	121	12:21	.182/.254/.248	

Discussing Bennett seems a little silly given his current BA and failure to earn more than a couple bucks of fantasy value in any season. Yet his skills appear right in line with his career norms and Milwaukee's improved offense should benefit Bennett if his BA edges upward. Of course, don't bother with him in anything shallower in standard leagues, but if you need an injury replacement or don't trust your second catcher, feel free to target Bennett as an inexpensive second half sleeper.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, LA: +.039 BA; +.129 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .039/.031; 2002: .043/.183; 2003: .032/.159.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	816	58:138	.234/.288/.369
2nd H	805	44:143	.273/.313/.473

04 1st	314	20:40	.315/.355/.580	

The biggest chance in Beltre's skills is that his .87 contact rate now exceeds his previous high of .84, posted right before a botched appendectomy set his career back a couple years. Of course, anyone analyzing Beltre's upside must remember he only turned 25 this spring, and since he still demonstrates respectable plate patience and promising power potential, he could maintain this level of performance for the next decade. The pending free agent also could slump as soon as he signs a new deal, however his combination of age, skill, and tools makes him a tantalizing player in fantasy league. While I realize that adding him now essentially requires you to pay a premium for a very inconsistent player, Beltre should approach 40 homers while holding a .300 BA this season, making him a good target for teams needing a corner upgrade.

Ramon Hernandez, C, SD: +.037 BA; +.114 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .067/.248; 2002: .022/.060; 2003: .026/.045.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	736	61:107	.238/.305/.368
2nd H	603	52:104	.275/.339/.448

04 1st	184	18:19	.266/.340/.424	

Given his .299/.378/.464 road numbers, we shouldn't worry about Hernandez's .230/.295/.379 performance at Petco. The problem is that a home plate collision on June 20th caused a strained MCL in his left knee, and he only will start his rehab assignment this weekend. Of course, the injury only should affect his stamina, not his hitting, and with career-best marks in almost every skill save his 1.33 G-F, Hernandez should enjoy a productive second half. Anyone seeking more production from their catchers should target Hernandez, especially if you can grab him now given the likely temporary reduction in his trade cost due to his injury.

Abraham O. Nunez, 2B/IF, PIT: +.027 BA; +.114 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .014/.067; 2002: .014/.073; 2003: .050/.189.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	486	41:83	.237/.300/.305
2nd H	379	40:67	.264/.336/.383

04 1st	111	4:21	.261/.284/.369	

A career-worst 3.13 #P/PA makes Nunez an extremely risky player in any fantasy league. Considering he also only sees a minimal number of at-bats and no longer apparently owns any speed skills, even the likelihood of his BA increasing towards .270 can't get me to recommend someone with this little upside. Ignore Nunez unless truly desperate for a short-term middle infielder who won't hurt your average.

Gary Sheffield, OF, NYY: +.046 BA; +.104 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .047/.111; 2002: .094/.208; 2003: .006/.009.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	847	140:98	.295/.399/.535
2nd H	736	112:77	.341/.431/.607

04 1st	301	51:31	.302/.410/.508	

The 35-year-old remains a top offensive player despite nearly a complete loss of speed this season. All his skills remain right in line with his 2003 marks, and if injuries don't limit his at-bats, Sheffield at least should approach the .311/36/100 he posted in 2001 with the Dodgers. Batting in the middle of New York's loaded lineup helps Sheffield maintain impressive quantitative value even without an outstanding BA, however since he hasn't posted an average under .300 since 1997, and he should improve over the balance of the year, he shouldn't break that streak in 2004. Definitely target Sheffield anywhere you need an outfield upgrade, especially if his owner is disappointed with his performance after paying for the expectation of another MVP-caliber season.

Jacques Jones, OF, MIN: +.033 BA; +.104 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .053/.176; 2002: .038/.123; 2003: .009/.020.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	917	47:196	.280/.316/.444
2nd H	652	50:130	.313/.364/.500

04 1st	311	18:63	.260/.313/.441	

Although Jones appears headed out of Minnesota as a free agent this winter, anyone believing he doesn't merit every day job right now hasn't looked closely at his situation. The combination of his career-best 3.65 #P/PA and a ground-fly drop from 2.58 in 2003 to a 2.09 G-F this season gives him intriguing upside. Yes, he rarely walks, but Jones' .79 contact rate appears almost identical to his mark last season, and considering he should surpass his 2003 quantitative totals by mid-August, 2004 could rank as his career year. I see nothing in his skills or stats that troubles me at all, allowing me to wholeheartedly recommend you attempt to acquire Jones anywhere you can. Expecting him to approach $20 over the balance of the season isn't an unreasonable hope.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Acquiring any player listed above save Bennett and Nunez looks like a great way to invigorate your roster for the second half. Pursue at least one of these batters either to improve or even just maintain your team's offensive performance.