Today's Fantasy Rx

As rosters are due for this contest at 9pm(CDT) tomorrow evening, today I'll discuss our player selections and corresponding rationale for the final regular season CDM game.

Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball
Selecting our starting pitching first as always, our main tool of analysis is the percentage of dominant starts for a pitcher. We generally want to see a relatively solid offense, and we don't want pitchers with many disastrous starts this year.

The stats after each pitcher's name represent his percentage of dominant(QA of 4 or 5), dull(QA of 3), and disastrous(QA of 2, 1, or 0) starts.

Healthy pitchers with a DOM percentage of .6 or above include Randy Johnson(74/21/05), Jake Peavy(73/18/09), Curt Schilling(72/22/06), Ben Sheets(72/22/06), Roger Clemens(72/11/17), Johan Santana(68/16/16), Pedro Martinez(67/11/22), Matt Clement(67/11/22), Brad Penny(67/11/22), Cory Lidle(63/16/21), and Kerry Wood(63/13/25).

Carl Pavano(59/29/12), Mark Mulder(56/44/00), Freddy Garcia(56/33/11), Jason Schmidt(53/24/24), and Roy Oswalt(53/32/16) also merit consideration due to their overall effectiveness.

The best values are Pavano, Sheets, and Santana; we'll take all 3. Peavy is next in terms of cost-effeciency, however we don't trust his health quite yet. We similarly don't trust Brad Penny right now. Jason Schmidt and Mark Mulder bookend Penny, so we'll take those two to complete half our staff.

Randy and Schilling rank 1st and 3rd in total points, and since we're willing to deploy expensive pitchers, both appear necessary. After considering a dozen other pitchers, Clemens, Clement, and Oswalt possess the best blend of points and salary.

If anyone struggles, Peavy, Wood, Garcia, and Prior look like potential replacements. Shawn Chacon also might work if he continues pitching effectively, although he normally struggles in August.

For relievers, Joe Nathan easily ranks as the best bargain and is followed by Francisco Cordero. Armando Benitez, Matt Herges, Danny Kolb, Danys Baez, and Brad Lidge also all merit some consideration. Benitez ranks just behind Graves in total points, making him a logical choice, and then we'll opt for Lidge over Herges since he holds a definite skill edge.

Among catchers, the three most cost-efficient players look like Victor Martinez, Johnny Estrada, and Charles Johnson, and we'll happily roster all three.

Unsurprisingly, first base presents several intriguing opportunities. Taking Todd Helton in a Coors' platoon remains tempting, but we simply see too many bargains here to take an expensive player. Discounting the slumping Craig Wilson and Hee Choi, we feel David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Travis Hafner, and Lyle Overbay provide us with a nice assortment of inexpensive players.

Mike Young and Mark Loretta easily stand out among second basemen, considering Ron Belliard normally slumps in the second half. While we considered only taking two players here, Marcus Giles' upside makes him a good third selection.

Scott Rolen and Mike Lowell aren't bad picks at third, but given the lower cap here, Hank Blalock, Adrian Beltre, and Vinny Castilla possess much more upside.

Nomar simply looks like too much of a risk given the trade rumors, and ARod, Tejada, and Jeter don't exactly rank as efficient players. Carlos Guillen and Royce Clayton are the best picks here; Kaz Matsui gives us an alternative when Colorado hits the road.

We'll consider the outfield in two sections: inexpensive bargains and full-price fantasy behemoths. Bobby Abreu, Barry Bonds, and Manny Ramirez lead the second category, not to mention all players in total points, so we see no reason not to take all three.

Among the inexpensive options, only Matt Lawton and Carl Crawford don't seem particularly strong due to their slumps. J.D. Drew, Jason Bay, Adam Dunn, Hideki Matsui, Miguel Cabrera, and Jose Guillen give us a nice variety of agreeably priced players, and then Jeromy Burnitz is an obvious pick when playing in Coors.

Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball

SP(6)
Curt Schilling: Sun:@ANA(J.Lackey)
Randy Johnson: Fri:LA(K.Ishii)
Jason Schmidt: Sat:@COL(A.Cook)
Roger Clemens: Sun:SD(B.Lawrence)
Mark Mulder: Sun:CHW(E.Loaiza)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:SD(D.Wells)
Matt Clement: Fri:MIL(V.Santos)
Ben Sheets: Sat:@CHC(G.Maddux)
Johan Santana: Fri:@KC(D.May)
Carl Pavano: Sat:@PIT(K.Wells)

Randy, Clement, Sheets, and Santana all qualify as obvious picks. Pavano should be fine, and then Oswalt appears slightly safer than Clemens or Mulder given their All-Star appearances.

All our Rockies hit the lineup, and all our first baseman will play indefinitely. Estrada at home looks better than Victor Martinez in Seattle, Giles sits until he appears recovered, and Beltre's 4 in Arizona appears stronger than Blalock's 3 at home. Kaz Matsui stays benched in favor of Guillen and Clayton. In the outfield, while we planned on sitting Manny, Dunn, Cabrera, and Bay, Manny offers too much upside since we have cap room for him and Bay if we sit Hideki Matsui and Jose Guillen.

Umpire in Brooklyn
Week 15b: July 17-July 20

C	Charles Johnson		1480
C	Johnny Estrada		1000
1B	David Ortiz		1980
1B	Mark Teixeira		1550
2B	Mike Young		2120
2B	Mark Loretta		1650
3B	Adrian Beltre		2090
3B	Vinny Castilla		1610
SS	Carlos Guillen		1640
SS	Royce Clayton		1360
OF	Barry Bonds		3520
OF	Bobby Abreu		3120 
OF	Manny Ramirez		2960 
OF	Jeromy Burnitz		2100
OF	J.D. Drew		1620 
OF	Jason Bay		1050 
DH	Travis Hafner		1140
DH	Lyle Overbay		1000

SP	Randy Johnson		2900
SP	Roy Oswalt		2560
SP	Matt Clement		2460
SP	Ben Sheets		2300
SP	Johan Santana		2170
SP	Carl Pavano		1620
RP	Armando Benitez		2490
RP	Francisco Cordero	2080
RP	Brad Lidge		1730
RP	Joe Nathan		1420

Total Salary for Week 15b: 	54790

Today's Fantasy Rx: All-Star Game tonight at 7pm(CDT) on Fox.