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July
7th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2004 Pitching: July AL Roto Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Greg Jones, 27, RH Reliever
1-2 on a 20:7 K:BB in 19 IP over 15 G
with 18 H, 2 HR, and a 2.84 ERA for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

After struggling for a few seasons at the beginning of the decade, Jones emerged last year as a stabilizing force in Anaheim's very deep bullpen, compiling a 4.88 ERA on 28:14 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 18 G. Biceps tendonitis and an inflamed rotator cuff kept him from competing for a job during spring training or challenging for a roster spot in the first half, but he now appears ready to rejoin the Angels if a Ramon Ortiz trade opens a spot for another reliever. Of course, Jones failed to post particularly fantasy-friendly stats last year, and his likely role as a middle reliever this year similarly won't provide him with many opportunities to contribute to successful teams. Barring an extreme need for roster filler, wait until Jones echoes his current skills over several big league appearances before considering him in any league.


Baltimore: Todd Williams, 33, RH Reliever
1-0 and 2 Saves on a 6:2 K:BB in 12 IP over 8 G
with 8 H, 0 HR, and a 0.75 ERA for AAA Ottawa(IL).
2-2 and 9 Saves on an 11:7 K:BB in 29.2 IP over 27 G
with 37 H, 2 HR, and a 3.03 ERA for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

Hopefully Baltimore will overlook Williams' weak dominance and give him the extended look he deserves given his consistently low walk and homer rates. While he appears quite hittable, I see no reason he can't succeed in the majors if awarded regular work. History suggests you should ignore Williams since he appears incapable of staying in the majors for more than a couple weeks at a time, but I see definite upside here if he finally catches a break.


Boston: Tim Kester, 32, RH Starter
8-6 on a 40:11 K:BB in 103.2 IP over 14 GS(18G)
with 103 H, 16 HR, and a 3.91 ERA for AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Jester caught my attention last year after registering a 128:21 K:BB in 164 IP for AA Portland(EL). His numbers this year reinforce my belief that he belongs in a big league bullpen. Although he obviously dominates few hitters, his outstanding control makes him a good gamble on a team with decent defense. Only wait until you see Kester secure consistent work in the majors before considering him for your team since he could improve your WHIP foundation significantly.


Chicago White Sox: Jose Santiago, 29, RH Reliever
2-4 and 4 Saves on a 27:12 K:BB in 47.2 IP over 31 G
with 44 H, 4 HR, and a 3.02 ERA for AAA Charlotte(IL).

Santiago appears unlikely to develop into a dominant reliever, however he owns excellent control and could prosper in front of a strong defense. As the White Sox possess an above-average group of defenders, Santiago deserves a shot in the majors more than Mike Jackson or the two rookie long relievers currently employed in Chicago. Although Santiago likely won't see many late-inning situations, only wait until he registers a few solid outings before considering him for your roster.


Cleveland: Kenny Rayborn, 29, RH Starter
5-2 on a 31:21 K:BB in 62.2 IP over 11 GS(12G)
with 55 H, 6 HR, and a 3.02 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).
1-1 on a 6:5 K:BB in 12 IP over 6 G
with 13 H, 4 HR, and a 6.75 ERA for AA Akron(EL).

Cleveland's carousel of pitching leaves almost nobody at Buffalo for more than a few weeks without visiting the Indians, Akron, or the disabled list. Rayborn joins Kyle Denney as the only two starters to spend the last two months at Buffalo, making him a logical alternative if Cleveland needs an unexpected spot starter. Of course, Rayborn's unimpressive command illustrates why he spent most of the previous two seasons in the Northern and Central Leagues. He also appears more likely to settle into a relief role once promoted, but if desperate for starting pitching, only wait until he contributes a couple of solid starts before rostering Rayborn.


Detroit: Andy Van Hekken, 24, LH Starter
6-2 on a 71:27 K:BB in 91.2 IP over 16 GS
with 100 H, 8 HR, and a 4.61 ERA for AAA Toledo(IL).

The Tigers may lack a multitude of solid relievers at Toledo, but essentially everyone in the Mud Hens' rotation merits some consideration for promotion. Van Hekken merits a long look some time this year due to his impressive overall performance. While Detroit's weak defense won't allow him to improve his weak hit rate, I still see significant upside in this skill set. Look to acquire Van Hekken anywhere you can risk mild qualitative damage in an attempt to net a long-term starting solution.


Kansas City: Les Walrond, 27, LH Starter
3-3 on a 30:11 K:BB in 41 IP over 7 GS
with 46 H, 7 HR, and a 4.83 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL).
3-3 on a 34:17 K:BB in 39 IP over 6 GS(8G)
with 30 H, 2 HR, and a 4.38 ERA for AA Wichita(TL).

Although Walrond historically seems much stronger in relief, his respectable marks as a starter should earn him another trip to Kansas City sometime this summer. He owns the command necessary to succeed in the majors, however his AA walk rate suggests he could struggle, especially with the Royals' atrocious defense supporting him. You probably should ignore Walrond unless desperate for starters with any upside in very deep leagues.


Minnesota: Dave Gassner, 25, LH Starter
9-5 on a 47:15 K:BB in 95.2 IP over 16 GS
with 95 H, 9 HR, and a 3.29 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

With Matt Guerrier and Pete Munro now in the majors, albeit for different teams, Gassner clearly ranks ahead of Willie Eyre whenever the Twins next need a starter. While Gassner won't dominate any hitters, left-handed starters that hold a 1.4 BB/9 in the International League without allowing an abundance of homers generally receive long looks in a big league rotation. Gassner definitely merits serious attention in most AL leagues, making him someone to acquire once finally promoted to Minnesota.


New York Yankees: Alex Graman, 26, LH Starter
8-3 on a 77:32 K:BB in 83.2 IP over 14 GS
with 73 H, 10 HR, and a 2.90 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).

Graman now appears equally likely to replace Brad Halsey in the Yankees' rotation or spend the second half in the majors with a rebuilding team like Pittsburgh if New York deals him for an established starter. Although his unimpressive walk rate worries me slightly, few southpaws hold an 8.3 K/9 in a AAA rotation giving Graman intriguing long-term upside. I see little reason not to target him in the hope that he overcomes the difficulties encountered by most recent upper-level Yankees' pitching prospects.


Oakland: Joe Blanton, 23, RH Starter
5-4 on a 78:22 K:BB in 109 IP over 17 GS
with 117 H, 4 HR, and a 3.96 ERA for AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Keeping Blanton at Sacramento for most of 2004 wisely allows him to mature into a pitcher ready to succeed as soon as he reaches the majors, as well as postponing his arbitration-eligibility until 2008. I highly doubt Oakland will deal him this month since he should replace Barry Zito in the rotation this winter. Blanton ranks among the game's best pitching prospects and will spend his rookie season supported by the increasingly strong Athletics' defense and the pitcher-friendly Coliseum. As he looks prepared to follow Rich Harden's development path, definitely attempt to acquire Blanton on all rebuilding teams.


Seattle: Scott Atchison, 28, RH Reliever
4-2 on a 67:22 K:BB in 58 IP over 1 GS(30G)
with 58 H, 7 HR, and a 3.88 ERA for AAA Tacoma(PCL).

With most of the Rainers' starting prospects already in the majors, we might see Atchison join Seattle very soon if the Mariners follow the Freddy Garcia trade by moving a couple of relievers. His overall skill set should fit very nicely in a big league bullpen, and considering I expected him to succeed as a big league starter after the 2002 season, Atchison could flourish as a reliever. Once he registers a few solid outings, target Atchison anywhere you need roster filler or an improved qualitative foundation.


Tampa Bay: Matt Carnes, 28, RH Reliever
2-0 and 2 Saves on a 22:9 K:BB in 25.2 IP over 9 G
with 25 H, 1 HR, and a 2.10 ERA for AAA Durham(IL).

Carnes dominated in a few different stretches of relief work over the last several years with the Twins, but Minnesota kept forcing him into the rotation. Now his upside in a bullpen appears more obvious, and Tampa's uncertain relief corps could use Carnes' help in the near future. Of course, his relatively limited history of success means you need to wait until he remains effective over several outings in the majors before considering him on any team, but Carnes owns the skills necessary to enjoy a bright future.


Texas: Billy Sylvester, 27, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 7:3 K:BB in 5 IP over 3 G
with 6 H, 1 HR, and a 1.80 ERA for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).
4-1 and 12 Saves on a 62:22 K:BB in 42.1 IP over 30 G
with 21 H, 4 HR, and a 2.34 ERA for AA Frisco(TL).

Despite obvious control problems, Sylvester's complete dominance at Frisco makes him an intriguing candidate to join a Rangers' bullpen in need of one more right-hander capable of recording a couple strikeouts. Even walking a batter in almost every appearance isn't necessary a severe downside for Sylvester as long as he allows few hits and a negligible number of homers while recording a strikeout an inning. Ignore him in anywhere that counts qualitative stats like WHIP, however Sylvester also offers intriguing upside in points' leagues that emphasize strikeouts.


Toronto: Dave Maurer, 29, LH Reliever
0-0 and 1 Save on a 39:18 K:BB in 37.2 IP over 29 G
with 34 H, 5 HR, and a 4.06 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).

With no lefties currently in the Jays' bullpen, Maurer appears positioned to join Toronto's relief corps by the end of the month. His consistent dominance compensates for his elevated walk rate, however his likely role as a specialist renders him largely useless to fantasy owners. Ignore Maurer in all save the deepest AL leagues.


We'll continue tomorrow with National League pitching prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Today's discussion of prospects begins and ends with experienced relievers likely to develop into no more than roster filler, however a few starting pitchers in the middle merit attention in keeper leagues. Joe Blanton obviously will enjoy a bright future, and Alex Graman, Dave Gassner, and even Andy Van Hekken also should spend several seasons in starting rotations. Gassner and Graman generally look like your best targets given their respectively low profiles compared to a more heralded prospect like Blanton.


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