Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Brandon Villafuerte, RH Reliever
0-2 on a 7:5 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 13 G
with 12 H, 2 HR, a 1.38 G-F, and a 3.09 ERA.
2-2 and 4 Saves on a 23:10 K:BB in 30.2 IP over 23 G
with 27 H, 3 HR, and a 2.64 ERA for AAA Tucson(PCL).

A respectable ERA camouflages a one-dimensional pitcher who owns a .500/.625/.833 against left-handed batters this year. Of course his .188/.212/.313 performance versus right-handers gives him good value for Arizona, but fantasy owners won't know who he'll face in a given week when deployed. While I still like Villafuerte's skill set and believe he belongs in the majors, he currently appears too risky to own in standard leagues, so deal or cut him immediately.

Atlanta: Russ Ortiz, RH Starter
7-6 on a 77:49 K:BB in 95.1 IP over 16 GS
with 91 H, 5 HR, a 1.11 G-F, and a 3.87 ERA.

The pending free agent will benefit from his likely trade off the Braves, who currently own the worst defense in the game. Of course, Ortiz also lacks control and should see his homer rate rise based on the miniscule improvement in his ground-fly rate. A 24433 current QA log at least indicates some potential, but given Ortiz's history of poor command, you at least should shop him even though we don't know where he'll finish the season and he could win 10 more games with improved qualitative stats if he lands with a team like the White Sox. I just see too much downside to recommend keeping him at this point, although hold out for a solid $15+ return on your investment since Ortiz at least shouldn't hurt you regardless of where he plays.

Chicago Cubs: Jon Leicester, RH Reliever
1-0 on an 8:1 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 5 G
with 5 H, 2 HR, a 10-12 G-F, and a 1.93 ERA.
5-2 on a 55:34 K:BB in 60.2 IP over 11 GS
with 57 H, 3 HR, and a 4.01 ERA for AAA Iowa(PCL).

Despite a surprisingly impressive first month in the majors, Leicester doesn't own overly great skills and likely will slump once his hit rate rises. Barring further injury, he also will head to the minors once Kerry Wood returns to the rotation to bump Glendon Rusch to the bullpen. While Leicester might not hurt you as roster filler for another week or two, he doesn't appear included in the Cubs' long-term plans as anything more than bullpen fodder and therefore doesn't deserve current roster space on fantasy teams. Look to deal or cut him for someone with more immediate upside.

Cincinnati: Todd Jones, RH Reliever
5-2 and 1 Save on a 31:19 K:BB in 46 IP over 39 G
with 36 H, 3 HR, a .96 G-F, and a 3.52 ERA.

The 36-year-old former closer nearly didn't pitch this year after he posted a 7.08 ERA in 2003 and then earned his release from Tampa at the end of spring training. Of course, Cincinnati's signing of Jones allowed the Reds to deal Chris Reitsma for Jung Bong and Bubba Nelson, added needed upper-level starting depth without sacrificing anything on this season's surprisingly solid squad. Unfortunately, Jones won't maintain his current value as he shouldn't win double-digit games and doesn't own the skills necessary to hold these qualitative stats. A career-worst ground-fly rate suggests he should allow several more homers, and I also can't see Cincinnati's defense allowing him to keep a hit rate anywhere near 7.0. Unless you own Jones as injury insurance for Danny Graves, look to deal him to whoever owns Graves for someone less likely to post a negative fantasy value in the second half.

Colorado: Tim Harikkala, RH Reliever
1-1 on a 13:13 K:BB in 31.2 IP over 28 G
with 18 H, 4 HR, a 1.08 G-F, and a 2.56 ERA.
0-0 and 3 Saves on a 5:2 K:BB in 4 IP over 4 G
with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 4.50 ERA for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

While Colorado's putative closer hasn't saved any games this year, his impressive WHIP at least gives him a respectable chance to emerge as an acceptable closer. Unfortunately, although I like Harikkala and hope he succeeds, his 3.7 strikeout rate simply isn't acceptable, especially since Rockies' relievers often need to strand a couple of inherited runners. The chance to net a dozen saves here over the balance of the year does not adequately balance the risk of qualitative disasters, so shop him to other teams desperate for saves before someone like Chacon reemerges, thus eliminating Harikkala's fantasy value.

Florida: Josias Manzanillo, RH Reliever
1-1 on a 4:3 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 6 G
with 4 H, 0 HR, a 17-10 G-F, and a 0.87 ERA.
0-1 and 5 Saves on a 9:1 K:BB in 12 IP over 11 G
with 15 H, 3 HR, and a 5.25 ERA for AAA Albuequerque(PCL).

I enjoy writing about Manzanillo because he owns a surprisingly strong historical skill set and I get to recollect his insane decision to refuse the Pirates' offer of arbitration following the 2001 season. Elias designated him a Type A player, which required any potential suitor to give up a first round draft pick to sign him. Since even Manzanillo's impressive 2001 season didn't tempt anyone to pay that price, no teams showed sufficient interest, he somehow decided to turn down the Pirates, and then he still ended up back in Pittsburgh on a minor league deal. Two seasons and two more minor league deals later, the 36-year-old finally appears capable of enjoying one more productive season thanks to the benefits of playing home games in the pitcher-friendly Pro Player Stadium. While we should see his ERA rise a couple points over the next few months, Florida's unstable bullpen makes Manzanillo the presumed alternative to Benitez in case of injury. Although I don't anticipate Benitez suffering from any problems, the likelihood that Manzanillo will accumulate a few wins and post decent qualitative stats makes him a good target in deeper leagues.

Houston: Kirk Bullinger, RH Reliever
1-0 on a 5:0 K:BB in 7 IP over 7 G
with 4 H, 2 HR, a 12-6 G-F, and a 2.57 ERA.
3-1 and 14 Saves on a 14:9 K:BB in 30 IP over 28 G
with 24 H, 3 HR, and a 3.00 ERA for AAA New Orleans(PCL).

The 34-year-old rookie finally appears ready to shed that label in his fifth season in the majors. A couple of strong early performances make Bullinger a vital piece of Houston's revamped bullpen, and based on his AAA success this year, I expect he'll remain in the majors indefinitely. Of course, he ranks behind Brad Lidge, Dan Miceli, and David Weathers in line for saves, and pitching in front of the Astros' questionable defense in Minute Maid gives him significant downside. Wait until desperate for roster filler with respectable skills before considering Bullinger for your team.

Los Angeles: Guillermo Mota, RH Reliever
4-3 and 1 Save on a 42:21 K:BB in 45.1 IP over 37 G
with 39 H, 3 HR, a 1.90 G-F, and a 1.99 ERA.

Last season Mota held his ERA under 2.00 thanks to the combination of a 8.5 K/9, 3.8 K:BB, 1.36 G-F, and the second best NL defense. The only change this year is a jump in his walk rate from 2.2 to 4.2 BB/9, which negates the benefits of improving his ground-fly ratio from 1.36 to a career-best 1.90 G-F. He probably shouldn't own an ERA much below 3.00 given his current control, however he receives solid support from his teammates, doesn't suffer from any severe splits, and owns a very solid overall skill set. Despite his walk problems, target Mota if you need qualitative help since he again should approach double-digit value.

Milwaukee: Mike Adams, RH Reliever
1-0 on a 14:4 K:BB in 20.1 IP over 14 G
with 8 H, 1 HR, a .64 G-F, and a 0.89 ERA.
2-0 on a 37:4 K:BB in 31 IP over 2 GS(10G)
with 23 H, 3 HR, and a 2.61 ERA for AAA Indianapolis(IL).

I see no reason Danny Kolb can't remain extremely successful considering he allows a little over one flyball per week. Unfortunately, while Milwaukee possesses a surprisingly strong defense, Adams shouldn't finish the season with a 3.5 H/9 or a sub-2.00 ERA since his ground-fly leaves him very vulnerable to a homer rate spike. He still will earn a few fantasy dollars on the year, but I see more potential benefit if you shop him now while his trade value appears peaked.

Montreal: Zach Day, RH Starter
5-8 on a 54:32 K:BB in 96.2 IP over 15 GS
with 89 H, 10 H, a 2.47 G-F, and a 3.35 ERA.

No one here truly qualifies as an overachiever aside from Chad Cordero, who I discussed last month, but Day's continued success despite a weak 5.0 K/9 still surprises me. Of course, his 1.7 K:BB ranks as a career-best, and although his ground-fly rate continues dropping, he still allows relatively few flyballs. His 40421 current QA log nicely demonstrates both his upside and downside, however even with Montreal leaving Puerto Rico in ten days, I expect him to experience further qualitative problems. Considering Day also isn't winning many games, shop him to anyone intrigued by his former top prospect status.

New York Mets: Mike Stanton, LH Reliever
0-3 on a 25:18 K:BB in 42.1 IP over 44 G
with 38 H, 3 HR, a 1.18 G-F, and a 3.40 ERA.

Although Stanton's skills seem somewhat similar to his 2003 marks, achieved in roughly the same number of innings due to his injury problems last season, a strikeout rate drop from 6.8 to 5.3 K/9 eliminates most of his upside. The 37-year-old also isn't accumulating the win totals he regular registered with the Yankees, so although I don't expect him to hurt your stats, Stanton only helps as short-term roster filler. Deploying him on a regular basis occupies a slot better used on a right-hander with some potential, so deal or cut Stanton unless your league's extreme depth gives him minimal positive value.

Philadelphia: Rheal Cormier, LH Reliever
3-3 on a 21:16 K:BB in 37.2 IP over 38 G
with 38 H, 3 HR, a 2.38 G-F, and a 4.30 ERA.

Cormier's 1.70 ERA last season looks like the obvious outlier in his statistical history, however neither his ground-fly rate nor a 3.8 walk rate qualify as particularly poor marks. The 37-year-old isn't succeeding against right-handers this year, and his performance against lefties doesn't approach his dominant 2003. Considering Cormier also severely struggles on the road, I can't find a justification to recommend him despite my general belief that he likely won't hurt you if needed. Plan to deal or cut him at your first opportunity since his meager upside doesn't warrant a roster slot in standard leagues.

Pittsburgh: Sean Burnett, LH Starter
1-2 on an 11:10 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS
with 19 H, 0 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 3.09 ERA.
1-5 on a 25:17 K:BB in 47 IP over 10 GS
with 58 H, 5 HR, and a 5.36 ERA for AAA Nashville(PCL).

The Pirates promoted the 21-year-old despite his poor AAA performance, yet his 4334 QA log in the majors depicts a pitcher ready to succeed in the majors. While his command truly worries me, Burnett isn't allowing many baserunners or flyballs, making him a relatively safe starter. Don't expect him to win many games for a couple years, but feel free to target him if rebuilding. Although he also might help in deeper NL leagues this season, his questionable overall stats this season keep me from unilaterally recommending him.

San Diego: Jay Witasick, RH Reliever
0-1 on a 35:16 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 29 G
with 33 H, 3 HR, a 1.03 G-F, and a 2.23 ERA.

San Diego's strength centers around the league's best bullpen, which features four right-handers ranked among the top two dozen in the NL: Scott Linebrink, Akinori Ostuka, Trevor Hoffman, and Witasick. Given their respective skills and statistical histories, Witasick ranks as the biggest surprise among the quartet following his very disappointing 2003. Fortunately, his impressive rebound this year gives him significant value to both the Padres and fantasy teams. His lack of wins or saves might still leave Witasick available in your league, and if you see an opportunity to acquire him, he should help provide a solid qualitative foundation for your pitching staff.

San Francisco: Jason Schmidt, RH Starter
10-2 on a 107:32 K:BB in 100 IP over 14 GS
with 63 H, 8 HR, a 1.02 G-F, and a 2.43 ERA.

After missing the first couple weeks of the season for health reasons, Schmidt now looks like perhaps the best NL starter given he ranks second in the league in wins, third in strikeout and WHIP, and fifth in ERA. His 53341 QA log only worries me due to his increasing flyball rate, however I see no other reason to worry since history indicates that Schmidt easily can maintain a superb hit rate. Of course, you still should shop him since I expect his value to peak over the next two weeks, but he also appears fully prepared to maintain this pace over the rest of the season to earn the Cy Young Eric Gagne denied him in 2003. His high pitch totals simply don't worry me given the diligent Giants' medical staff and the 31-year-old Schmidt's developing reputation as a workhorse ace.

St. Louis: Chris Carpenter, RH Starter
8-3 on an 80:22 K:BB in 100.2 IP over 15 GS
with 90 H, 15 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 3.67 ERA.

After missing all of 2003 and most of 2002, Carpenter's resurgence this season makes him the probable winner of the NL Comeback Player of the Year award even if he somehow misses the second half. He followed a mediocre April with two increasingly dominant months that elevated him among the ranks of the league's best pitchers. Of course, I don't expect him to sustain these career-best skills, so at least attempt to shop him since a slump later this year remains a strong possibility. However, demand fair value for this $20 starter since Carpenter's 24554 current QA log indicates he finally possesses the ability to post a sub-4.00 ERA.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Curt Schilling: Sat:@ATL(J.Thomson)
Randy Johnson: Sun:MIN(C.Silva)
Mike Mussina: Fri:@NYM(S.Trachsel)
Roy Halladay: Sat:@MON-PR(T.Armas)
Javier Vazquez: Sun:@NYM(J.Seo)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:TEX(R.Drese)

No starts: Pedro, Hudson, Schmidt, Wood, Brown, Beckett, Affeldt.

Selecting our six active starters isn't a difficult decision.

Our only offensive change involves subbing Alex Cintron for Kaz Matsui for cap reasons. We similarly can't fit Juan Pierre or Mark Loretta, Texas' trip to Houston leaves Brad Fullmer on the bench, and then Vernon Wells stays seated until he returns from the DL.

The Umpire Hunter(17th lg; 499th overall)
Week 13b: July 2-July 4

C	Jason Varitek		680 
C	Victor Martinez		450
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Orlando Hudson		550
3B	Scott Rolen		1460 
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Alex Cintron		450
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760 
OF	Carl Crawford		1040
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Brad Wilkerson		690 
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Mike Piazza		990
DH	Joe Crede		600

SP	Curt Schilling		1610 
SP	Randy Johnson		1550 
SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Roy Halladay		1350 
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280  
SP	Roy Oswalt		1200
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Danny Kolb		940
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 13b: 	29980

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you own anyone you expect might get traded, especially pending free agents on dumping teams like Kansas City, Seattle, Montreal, Colorado, and Arizona, attempt to move them immediately if you can't keep players dealt to the other league. Orlando Cabrera and Royce Clayton qualify as the only exceptions to this plan since I don't expect any AL contender to upgrade at shortstop. Both Cabrera and Clayton should head to other NL teams, likely filling weaknesses for Chicago, Florida, or San Francisco.