Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Jeff DaVanon, OF
46/144 for .319/.406/.451 with 3 HR, 17 RBI, 18 R, 10/11 SB%,
and a 23:27 BB:K.

DaVanon belongs in Anaheim's #2 hole, but the presence of four other solid outfielders, including two potential All-Stars, former MVP candidate Garret Anderson, and team icon Tim Salmon, keeps DaVanon from ever playing against left-handers. He also hasn't seen much action over the last two weeks of interleague play, but even if everyone stays healthy, DaVanon appears to own a starting job against right-handed pitchers. A solid all-around skill set that includes a 3.78 #P/PA, 1.07 G-F, 91% SB success rate, and a .16 contact rate also make him a vital contributor for Anaheim. Of course, a .81 contact rate doesn't support a .319 BA, and he also isn't matching his power numbers from 2003. Shop DaVanon to see if you can convert his impressive average and steals into an everyday starter before your competitors realize he only should play a few games a week.

Baltimore: David Newhan, 3B
16/33 for .485/.364/.818 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 33 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 6:4 BB:K.
86/262 for .328/.387/.557 with 9 HR, 38 RBI, 57 R, 10/10 SB%,
and a 26:55 BB:K for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

Newhan's stunning Maasian performance should keep him in Baltimore's lineup even after Melvin Mora returns to full health. The Orioles only signed the journeyman after he wisely opted out of his deal with Texas, and his numbers over the past two weeks should keep him employed in the majors indefinitely. He owns good plate discipline and a solid walk rate despite a weak 3.23 #P/PA. I also see some power potential here between his minor league numbers and a respectable 1.22 G-F. You still should shop Newhan to see if someone will overpay since his stats only can head down from here, but he also isn't someone to dump for no return since he owns the skills necessary to hold his BA around .300.

Boston: Kevin Youkilis, 3B
34/114 for .298/.391/.456 with 3 HR, 19 RBI, 24 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 16:25 BB:K.
33/128 for .258/.347/.406 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, 20 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 14:24 BB:K for AAA Pawtucket(IL).

I don't expect Youkilis to return to the minors despite an unimpressive June performance and the pending return of Bill Mueller; he simply adds too much to Boston's offensive upside. 25-year-old rookies aren't supposed to post a 4.43 #P/PA, and since a 1.10 G-F also indicates surprising power potential, the Red Sox shouldn't offer him for rentals like Carlos Beltran or Freddy Garcia. With those two players off the market, Youkilis should grow comfortable in Boston since only his .78 contact rate concerns me at all. Teams competing for a 2004 championship still can shop him since his at-bats will decrease once Mueller returns, however expect him to approach $10 on the season before heading towards $20 as he approaches his prime.

Chicago White Sox: Aaron Rowand, OF
51/169 for .302/.352/.527 with 7 HR, 18 RBI, 31 R, 8/9 SB%,
and an 11:28 BB:K.

A nearly unbelievable .393/.443/.643 performance from Rowand in 56 at-bats this month, combined with yesterday's trade of Jeremy Reed, makes Rowand the theoretical starting centerfielder indefinitely barring the completion of a rumored trade for Andruw Jones. Yet neither Rowand's 3.59 #P/PA nor a 1.58 G-F particularly impress me, and a .83 contact rate suggests he won't maintain the .300 BA needed to hold an acceptable OBP. Of course, surprising power production, buoyed by the doubling of his doubles' rate, makes him a useful batter right now, but I just don't see a future for him as anything more than a fourth outfielder. Look to deal Rowand before either another Chicago trade or his questionable skills gut his value.

Cleveland: Casey Blake, 3B
72/257 for .280/.363/.486 with 13 HR, 41 RBI, 40 R, 3/10 SB%,
and a 30:62 BB:K.

Blake quietly leads in the Indians in homers thanks to a strong skill base centered on his 4.23 #P/PA. The problem here is that the signing of Aaron Boone reduces Blake's trade value even though Boone shouldn't see more than a couple dozen at-bats this season. Yes, Omar Vizquel and Ron Belliard should depart by next spring, but Boone, Brandon Phillips, Jhonny Peralta, and Travis Hafner should comprise most of next year's infield, leaving Blake to fight Ben Broussard, Ryan Ludwick, Grady Sizemore, Franklin Gutierrez, Alex Escobar, and the current outfield trio for OF/DH at-bats. Unfortunately, a .76 contact rate strongly suggests Blake's BA will fall past .250 over the balance of the season, largely negating his 1.22 G-F. Still, your best move involves a deal since you rightfully can argue that Blake at least will continue starting in 2004, so expect at least a solid $15 return for him in your trade offers.

Detroit: Omar Infante, 2B
41/155 for .265/.346/.490 with 6 HR, 21 RBI, 27 R, 4/9 SB%,
and a 22:39 BB:K.

With Fernando Vina likely out at least another month, Infante can continue establishing himself as a viable starting infielder for Detroit. These numbers shouldn't shock anyone given his age and the speed at which the Tigers promoted him, however his solid all-around skills should silence doubters. A 4.11 #P/PA and .67 G-F are fantastic marks for a 22-year-old capable of starting every day at shortstop. While a .75 contact rate leaves his BA very vulnerable, his patience and power insure he finishes the season with a .750+ OPS. Since Vina's contract already looks like a huge mistake, I see no reason not to target Infante if you need quantitative help. He and Carlos Guillen shouldn't remind anyone of Whitaker and Trammell, but few AL clubs possess a superior keystone combo.

Kansas City: Tony Graffanino, 2B
48/178 for .270/.370/.331 with 1 HR, 16 RBI, 24 R, 7/9 SB%,
and a 16:26 BB:K.

Although Graffanino isn't contributing much offense for the Royals thanks to his negligible power, a respectable OBP makes him an acceptable #2 hitter given their otherwise depleted lineup. He also should cruise to a career-high SB total, essentially giving him double-digit roto value despite limited press. Kansas City also should keep at least one veteran infielder to let Mark Teahen and Andres Blanco develop in the minors, and Graffanino's signed through 2005 while Desi Relaford hits free agency this winter. Any team needing several steals and a league-average BA from their middle infielder certainly can target Graffanino.

Minnesota: Corey Koskie, 3B
48/194 for .247/.329/.479 with 11 HR, 32 RBI, 30 R, 4/6 SB%,
and a 21:36 BB:K.

Koskie ranks among the Twins' leaders in nearly every category save BA despite spending a couple weeks on the DL this spring. Unfortunately, although his career-best .84 G-F intrigues me, a 3.68 #P/PA represents a severe departure from the patience Koskie demonstrated over the past couple seasons. Of course, with a .81 contact rate also ranking as a career-best mark, we should see him maintain this power production while improving his BA. Talk up his low average as an excuse to acquire Koskie cheaply.

New York Yankees: Miguel Cairo, 2B
36/124 for .290/.331/.427 with 3 HR, 18 RBI, 13 R, 4/5 SB%,
and a 4:15 BB:K.

While the Yankees almost certainly will acquire someone like Roberto Alomar or Junior Spivey for the stretch run, Cairo continues to start at second base for now due to Enrique Wilson's miserable season. Of course, Wilson may possess better skills as Cairo no longer owns much speed and neither his 3.65 #P/PA nor a 1.12 G-F overly intrigues me. Expect Cairo's BA to deteriorate gradually until New York trades for his replacement, so try to deal him now before both his quantitative and qualitative values disappear.

Oakland: Scott Hatteberg, 1B
74/232 for .319/.392/.504 with 10 HR, 48 RBI, 37 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 31:15 BB:K.

This justification for his contract extension makes most analysts look like fools considering Hatteberg might equal last year's power numbers by the end of the first half. While 34-year-olds generally don't post career years, Hatteberg's evolution since stepping from behind the plate appears more impressive by the week. His career-best marks of a .94 contact rate and 1.08 G-F give him significant power potential, not to mention combine with his 4.04 G-F to make Hatteberg a viable All-Star. Of course, although he objectively seems at peak value, Hatteberg owns the skills necessary to maintain his current pace, so wait unless you receive a fair offer involving him.

Seattle: Dave Hansen, 3B/DH
17/55 for .309/.435/.455 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 13:9 BB:K.

While Hansen's 5.80 G-F certainly limits his upside, a 4.38 #P/PA and .84 contact rate insure he retains significant value as a pinch-hitter. He should net Seattle a nice prospect prior to the trade deadline, although since he won't accumulate enough at-bats to earn more than a couple bucks, deal or cut Hansen, especially if you can't keep players moved to the NL.

Tampa Bay: Carl Crawford, OF
92/296 for .311/.346/.453 with 3 HR, 28 RBI, 54 R, 33/43 SB%,
and a 17:37 BB:K.

The Devil Rays' likely All-Star representative won't even turn 23 until August and already ranks among the most valuable roto player in the game. Crawford's 3.54 #P/PA, 1.49 G-F, .06 walk rate, and .88 contact rate all rank as career-best marks, and despite a decrease from last year's 85%, his 77% SB success rate still makes him extremely useful a the top of Tampa's lineup. While you should enjoy his push towards 70 steals, also consider his developing power potential when looking to acquire this fantasy stud.

Texas: Rod Barajas, C
41/144 for .285/.298/.611 with 12 HR, 30 RBI, 27 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:23 BB:K.

I assume SETI soon will contact the alien controlling Barajas since I can't find another reason why he more than doubled his career homer total in less than a third of his previous at-bats. Yes, he always owned a great ground-fly rate, and his .42 G-F this year looks in line with his previous marks. However, his .84 contact rate neither supports a BA much above .250 nor this power production. Look to deal Barajas for another starter before he returns to earth.

Toronto: Frank Menechino, 2B/IF
35/134 for .261/.377/.448 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 18 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 22:29 BB:K between Oakland and Toronto.

The Jays acquired Menechino as a temporary replacement for the injured Orlando Hudson, and I doubt they expected him to post a .317/.444/.564 in a month of everyday action. His skills since joining Toronto appear on target with his previous performance, so expect his OPS to drop at least a hundred points over the balance of the season. Since I don't envision him continuing to play every day barring further health problems for Jays' infielders, at least explore a deal for someone with a better chance of holding averages closer to these levels than Menechino.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League overachieving batters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: We traditionally wait as long as possible to submit All-Star ballots since we believe very strongly that players deserve the extra few weeks or days to boost their stats. Our general method of selecting our team involves a few steps. First, objective analysis, largely based upon the RARP and VORP data available at Baseball Prospectus. Second, subjective analysis, where we narrow the list using more traditional statistics. Finally, as we compile our preferred 30-man squads, we insure that every team is represented.

Our Recommended All-Star Ballot

	
POS	AL			NL
1B	F.Thomas		J.Thome
2B	R.Belliard		M.Loretta 
SS	C.Guillen		E.Renteria
3B	M.Mora			S.Rolen
C	I.Rodriguez		M.Piazza
OF	V.Guerrero		B.Bonds
OF	M.Ramirez		L.Berkman
OF	G.Sheffield		B.Abreu

Players who earned our vote for the second season in a row include Mora and Thomas in the AL, and Renteria in the NL. Manny Ramirez and Barry Bonds earned out vote for a third straight season.

Jess will spend tomorrow and Wednesday detailing these picks and rosters, but we wanted to list our recommended ballot here today since you have until Wednesday, June 30th at 11:59 PM(EDT) to vote as many times as possible here. ("As many as times as possible" means as many friends and family members you can either convince to vote or let you vote for them, multiplied by twenty-five ballots per person. While the process will likely take up to an hour per person to submit all the votes, every vote certainly counts now with some starting positions very much in question. Please vote as often as your schedule (and the rules) allow.