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June
27th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Sunday Challenge Conversation, '04 Wk. 13
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Schedule recommendations for teams with 7 games

Good for hitters / Good for pitchers
Arizona: 4 Home vs. SD; 3 Home vs. MIN.
Atlanta: 4 Home vs. FLO; 3 Home vs. BOS.
Florida: 4 Road at ATL; 3 Home vs. TB.
Philadelphia: 4 Home vs. MON; 3 Home vs. BAL.
San Diego: 4 Road at ARI; 3 Home vs. KC.
Tampa Bay: 4 Home vs. TOR; 3 Road at FLO.

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Milwaukee: 3 Road at COL; 4 Road at PIT.
Montreal: 4 Road at PHI; 3 Home(PR) vs. TOR.
Pittsburgh: 3 Home vs. STL; 4 Home vs. MIL.
Seattle: 4 Home vs. TEX; 3 Road at STL.
Texas: 4 Road at SEA; 3 Road at HOU.
Toronto: 4 Road at TB; 3 Road at MON(PR).

Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers
Kansas City: 4 Home vs. BAL; 3 Road at SD.

Bad for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Baltimore: 4 Road at KC; 3 Road at PHI.


Schedule recommendations for teams with 6 games

Good for hitters / Good for pitchers
Chicago White Sox: 3 Road at MIN; 3 Road at CHC.
Cincinnati: 3 Home vs. NYM; 3 Home vs. CLE.

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Chicago Cubs: 3 Home vs. HOU; 3 Home vs. CHW.
Colorado: 3 Home vs. MIL; 3 Home vs. DET.
Detroit: 3 Home vs. CLE; 3 Road at COL.
Houston: 3 Road at CHC; 3 Home vs. TEX.
Minnesota: 3 Home vs. CHW; 3 Road at ARI.
New York Mets: 3 Road at CIN; 3 Home vs. NYY.
New York Yankees: 3 Home vs. BOS; 3 Road at NYM.

Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers
Anaheim: 3 Road at OAK; 3 Home vs. LA.
Cleveland: 3 Road at DET; 3 Road at CIN.
Oakland: 3 Home vs. ANA; 3 Road at SF.
San Francisco: 3 Road at LA; 3 Home vs. OAK.
St. Louis: 3 Road at PIT; 3 Home vs. SEA.

Bad for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Boston: 3 Road at NYY; 3 Road at ATL.
Los Angeles: 3 Home vs. SF; 3 Road at ANA.


Pitchers with 2 starts(to deploy everywhere you own them):
Mark Buehrle: Tue:@MIN(C.Silva); Sun:CHC(G.Rusch)
Tom Glavine: Tue:@CIN(T.Van Poppel); Sun:NYY(J.Vazquez)
John Halama: Tue:TOR(T.Lilly); Sun:@FLO(D.Willis)
Roy Halladay: Mon:@TB(V.Zambrano); Sat:@MON(S.Kim)
Mike Hampton: Tue:FLO(D.Willis); Sun:BOS(D.Lowe)
Randy Johnson: Tue:SD(Br.Sweeney); Sun:MIN(C.Silva)
John Lackey: Tue:@OAK(M.Mulder); Sun:LA(J.Weaver)
Derek Lowe: Tue:@NYY(J.Vazquez); Sun:@ATL(J.Thomson)
Darrell May: Mon:BAL(E.Bedard); Sat:@SD(A.Eaton?)
Kevin Millwood: Mon:MON(S.Kim); Sat:BAL(E.Bedard)
Eric Milton: Tue:MON(T.Armas); Sun:BAL(S.Ponson)
Mark Mulder: Tue:ANA(J.Lackey); Sun:SF(Jer.Williams)
Brad Penny: Mon:@ATL(J.Thomson); Sat:TB(V.Zambrano)
Carlos Silva: Tue:CHW(M.Buehrle); Sun:@ARI(R.Johnson)
Jeff Suppan: Mon:@PIT(K.Benson); Sun:SEA(J.Pineiro)
John Thomson: Mon:FLO(B.Penny); Sat:BOS(C.Schilling)
Todd Van Poppel: Tue:NYM(T.Glavine); Sun:CLE(J.Westbrook)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:BOS(D.Lowe); Sun:@NYM(T.Glavine)
Jeff Weaver: Tue:SF(Jer.Williams); Sun:@ANA(J.Lackey)
David Wells: Mon:@ARI(S.Reynolds); Sun:KC(M.Wood)
Jake Westbrook: Tue:@DET(G.Knotts); Sun:@CIN(T.Van Poppel)
Jerome Williams: Tue:@LA(J.Weaver); Sun:OAK(M.Mulder)
Dontrelle Willis: Tue:@ATL(M.Hampton); Sun:TB(J.Halama)
Mike Wood: Tue:BAL(S.Ponson); Sun:@SD(D.Wells?)

Pitchers with 2 starts to deploy only in leagues that don't count qualitative stats:
Tony Armas: Tue:@PHI(E.Milton); Sun:TOR(T.Lilly)
Erik Bedard: Mon:@KC(D.May); Sat:@PHI(K.Millwood)
Kris Benson: Mon:STL(J.Suppan); Sat:MIL(M.Wise?)
Nick Bierbrodt: Mon:@SEA(R.Franklin); Sat:@HOU(R.Oswalt)
Sean Burnett: Tue:STL(C.Carpenter); Sun:MIL(C.Capuano)
Chris Capuano: Tue:@COL(S.Estes); Sun:@PIT(S.Burnett)
Shawn Estes: Tue:MIL(C.Capuano); Sun:DET(G.Knotts)
Ryan Franlkin: Mon:TEX(N.Bierbrodt); Sat:@STL(J.Marquis)
Sun-Woo Kim: Mon:@PHI(K.Millwood); Sat:TOR(R.Halladay)
Gary Knotts: Tue:CLE(J.Westbrook); Sun:@COL(S.Estes)
Ted Lilly: Tue:@TB(J.Halama); Sun:@MON(T.Armas)
Andy Pettitte: Tue:@CHC(G.Rusch); Sun:TEX(Ric.Rodriguez?)
Joel Pineiro: Tue:TEX(Ric.Rodriguez?); Sun:@STL(J.Suppan)
Sidney Ponson: Tue:@KC(M.Wood); Sun:@PHI(E.Milton)
Shane Reynolds: Mon:SD(D.Wells); Sat:MIN(M.Guerrier)
Glendon Rusch: Tue:HOU(A.Pettitte); Sun:CHW(M.Buehrle)
Victor Zambrano: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay); Sun:@FLO(B.Penny)


Diamond Challenge

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:@NYY(B.Halsey)
Curt Schilling: Sat:@ATL(J.Thomson)
Randy Johnson: Tue:SD(Br.Sweeney); Sun:MIN(C.Silva)
Mike Mussina: Fri:@NYM(S.Trachsel)
Roy Halladay: Mon:@TB(V.Zambrano); Sat:@MON(S.Kim)
Tim Hudson: No start(DL)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:BOS(D.Lowe); Sun:@NYM(T.Glavine)
Mark Mulder: Tue:ANA(J.Lackey); Sun:SF(Jer.Williams)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:TEX(N.Bierbrodt)
Kerry Wood: No start(DL)
Kevin Brown: No start(DL)
Josh Beckett: No start(DL)
Jeremy Affeldt: DL.

Randy, Halladay, Vazquez, and Mulder give us a welcome group of starters considering our five DL'd pitchers. Schilling and Oswalt appear slightly safer than Pedro or Mussina, however we'll take Mussina over Schilling for cap reasons.

Our only offensive switch involves flipping Orlando Hudson for Brad Fullmer, who spends the week in Seattle and then likely on the bench in Houston. Alex Cintron as well as the injured Vernon Wells and Melvin Mora remain seated. Arthur Rhodes also hopefully won't see our lineup for a while.

Shadow of the Umpire(16th lg; 141st div; 3619th overall)
Week 13: June 28-July 4

C	Javy Lopez		940
C	Jason Varitek		680
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Mark Loretta		820
3B	Mike Lowell		1230
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Brian Roberts		610 
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760
OF	Carl Crawford		1040
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Brad Wilkerson		690 
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Joe Crede		600
DH	Orlando Hudson		550

SP	Randy Johnson		1550
SP	Mike Mussina		1380 
SP	Roy Halladay		1350 
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280
SP	Mark Mulder		1200
SP	Roy Oswalt		1200 
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250 
RP	Danny Graves		1070
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 13: 	29950


Diamond Challenge 2nd Season

To replace Arthur Rhodes in the bullpen, we'll take Matt Herges, who costs less than every other comparable closer and continues to pitch relatively well. While we debated cutting Affeldt or Lieber, we decided just to dump Rhodes.

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:@NYY(B.Halsey)
Curt Schilling: Sat:@ATL(J.Thomson)
Randy Johnson: Tue:SD(Br.Sweeney); Sun:MIN(C.Silva)
Roy Halladay: Mon:@TB(V.Zambrano); Sat:@MON(S.Kim)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:BOS(D.Lowe); Sun:@NYM(T.Glavine)
Jason Schmidt: Thu:@LA(J.Lima)
Mark Mulder: Tue:ANA(J.Lackey); Sun:SF(Jer.Williams)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:TEX(N.Bierbrodt)
Roger Clemens: Wed:@CHC(M.Clement)
Brad Penny: Mon:@ATL(J.Thomson); Sat:TB(V.Zambrano)
Ben Sheets: Wed:@COL(A.Cook)
Jon Lieber: Wed:BOS(T.Wakefield)
Jeremy Affeldt: DL.

In addition to the five doubles, Schmidt looks like a great pick.

Our Colorado platoon hits the lineup, displacing Craig Wilson and Juan Uribe. However, Blalock remains deployed as Melvin Mora joins Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu on the bench. While we like Abreu, we just don't have cap room for him.

Umpire: The Masquerade
(6th lg; 64th div; 459th overall)
Week 13: June 28-July 4

C	Jason Varitek		680
C	Victor Martinez		450
1B	David Ortiz		800 
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
2B	Jeff Kent		1450
2B	Mark Loretta		820
3B	Scott Rolen		1460 
3B	Hank Blalock		850 
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Royce Clayton		610
OF	Manny Ramirez		1420 
OF	Lance Berkman		1390 
OF	Jeromy Burnitz		810 
OF	Matt Lawton		720
OF	Ken Griffey		700 
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Carl Crawford		1040
DH	Vinny Castilla		760

SP	Randy Johnson		1550 
SP	Roy Halladay		1350 
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280
SP	Jason Schmidt		1240
SP	Mark Mulder		1200 
SP	Brad Penny		880
RP	Danny Graves		1070
RP	Danny Kolb		940 
RP	Joe Nathan		720 
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 13: 	27840


Internet Challenge

Affeldt's injury almost breaks our back in this league. We need to replace him to avoid staying with four starters indefinitely, so we'll add Jason Schmidt and cut Ichiro, who costs more than our other speedsters and also normally slumps in the second half. We're keeping Affeldt for cap purposes.

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:@NYY(B.Halsey)
Randy Johnson: Tue:SD(Br.Sweeney)
Roy Halladay: Mon:@TB(V.Zambrano)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:BOS(D.Lowe)
Jason Schmidt: Thu:@LA(J.Lima)

No starts: Schilling, Mussina, Hudson, Oswalt, Wood, Brown, Beckett, Affeldt.

Fullmer and Pierre join Wells on the bench as Hudson and Crawford enter the lineup. Piazza and Kaz Matsui replace Loretta and Cintron, who simply lack the power we desperately need.

The Umpire Hunter(18th lg; 564th overall)
Week 13a: June 28-July 1

C	Jason Varitek		680 
C	Victor Martinez		450
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Orlando Hudson		550
3B	Scott Rolen		1460 
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Kazuo Matsui		750
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760 
OF	Carl Crawford		1040
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Brad Wilkerson		690 
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Mike Piazza		990
DH	Joe Crede		600

SP	Pedro Martinez		1800 
SP	Randy Johnson		1550 
SP	Roy Halladay		1350 
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280  
SP	Jason Schmidt		1240
SP	Jeremy Affeldt		650
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Danny Kolb		940
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 13a: 	29780


Fantasy Baseball & Budget Baseball
(Same game = same rosters and moves for both teams)

With Wood, Hudson, Beckett, and Brown all hopefully returning after the break, we're cutting Jeremy Affeldt so that we at least have six starters to run the next two weeks. We considered Mark Mulder and Carl Pavano extensively, but Jason Schmidt owns better skills right now and a better upcoming schedule. We'll add him for Affeldt.

We also need to replace Arthur Rhodes here; Joe Nathan is the logical replacement based on his saves, strikeouts, and innings, not to mention a much cheaper salary than someone like Brad Lidge.

SP(6)
Curt Schilling: Sat:@ATL(J.Thomson)
Randy Johnson: Tue:SD(Br.Sweeney); Sun:MIN(C.Silva)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:BOS(D.Lowe); Sun:@NYM(T.Glavine)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:@NYY(B.Halsey)
Kerry Wood: No start(DL)
Tim Hudson: No start(DL)
Roy Halladay: Mon:@TB(V.Zambrano); Sat:@MON(S.Kim)
Jason Schmidt: Thu:@LA(J.Lima)
Josh Beckett: No start(DL)
Kevin Brown: No start(DL)

Obviously, we'll deploy our six healthy starters.

Estrada replaces LeCroy since the Twins' DH should sit next weekend in Arizona. Giles, Lowell, Wells, and Kearns stay benched, while Helton, Hideki Matsui, and Cintron rejoin our lineup, sending Pujols, Loretta, and Orlando Cabrera on the bench. We also could leave Helton benched to run Loretta and Lowell or Cabrera, but Helton offers the most upside.

The Umpire Chronicles(16th lg; 1651st overall)
& Umpire with a Soul(18th lg; 3267th overall)
Week 13: June 28-July 4

 
C	Brian Schneider		1100
C	Johnny Estrada		1000 
1B	Mark Teixeira		1550
1B	Lyle Overbay		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		3060 
2B	Orlando Hudson		1420
3B	Hank Blalock		2020 
3B	Tony Batista		1640
SS	Brian Roberts		1260 
SS	Alex Cintron		1100 
OF	Carlos Beltran		3060
OF	Manny Ramirez		2960 
OF	Adam Dunn		1950 
OF	Brad Wilkerson		1870 
OF	Hideki Matsui		1800
OF	Miguel Cabrera		1600 
DH	Todd Helton		3450
DH	Derrek Lee		2690 

SP	Curt Schilling		3090
SP	Randy Johnson		2900 
SP	Javier Vazquez		2890
SP	Pedro Martinez		2890 
SP	Roy Halladay		2800 
SP	Jason Schmidt		2780
RP	Armando Benitez		2490
RP	Octavio Dotel		2400
RP	Matt Herges		1610 
RP	Joe Nathan		1420

Total Salary for Week 13: 	59800


Today's Fantasy Rx: Building on yesterday's Rx, Pavano remains an excellent bet, but for these challenge games, Randy still possesses the most upside, and then Jason Schmidt, Mark Mulder, Roy Halladay, and Javier Vazquez look like the best targets before Pavano. Both Pedro and Schilling similarly remain quite strong, however I don't particularly like Boston's schedule until the end of July.


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