Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 23rd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.

1
2AX - Brad Penny(23434)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(33444)
3ABCXZ - Odalis Perez(53544)
ABCY - Jason Schmidt(45334)
ABCZ - Matt Clement(02455)
ACX - Ben Sheets(34335)
A - Doug Davis(40255).

Doug Davis' development gives Milwaukee two starters at this level, an impressive accomplishment considering Davis spent last year as waiver bait. Sheets still possesses the most upside, and frankly every other pitcher up here is a better bet, but Davis certainly could help almost all NL teams.

23abcxyz - John Smoltz(4454554244)
23abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(4344255343)
abcxy - Braden Looper(5345534554)
ax - Akinori Otsuka(3444454443)
ax - Dan Miceli(4514254235)
ax - Orber Moreno(4453334423)

Here Otsuka finally gets his ground-fly ratio under control to flip spots with Ryan Madson. Moreno's return from the DL similarly makes him a surprisingly strong target.

2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(40334)
BCYZ - Mark Prior(4044)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4453455335)
3byz - Joe Borowski(2433341342)
abcxyz - Eric Gagne(4424544454)
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(3240543333)
abx - Guillermo Mota(3434545323)
byz - Rheal Cormier(2423342544)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
by - Javier Lopez(3143343330)

3
ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(45043)
CZ - Matt Morris(33144)
C - Woody Williams(15334)

bcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(1355343432)
cxz - Steve Reed(4313323535)
by - Jay Witasick(5433521234)
cz - Robb Nen

A
CXYz - Carlos Zambrano(34443)
BCY - Roger Clemens(45420)
CXZ - Greg Maddux(35543)
CXZ - Jeff Weaver(43345)
BC - Wade Miller(04442)
BX - Livan Hernandez(34123)
CX - Jake Peavy(44344)
CZ - Brian Lawrence(54545)
Xc - Carl Pavano(44544)
Xc - Zach Day(43404)
X - Jerome Williams(44104)
X - Joe Kennedy(40334)
X - Jason Marquis(04444)
y - Glendon Rusch(12444)

Dontrelle Willis(54440)
Russ Ortiz(52443)
Cory Lidle(35024)
Shawn Estes(43434)
Kerry Wood(25550)

Glendon Rusch's continued success could lead the Cubs to deal Matt Clement for a shortstop once Kerry Wood returns. Rusch and Weaver replace Van Poppel and Glavine; Suppan also drops completely off today's list.

B
XY - Brandon Webb(04334)
C - Andy Pettitte(44430)
Y - Josh Beckett(44400)
x - Jeff Fassero(03233)
Todd Van Poppel(25322)

Yax - Darren Dreifort(5324355354)
Y - Juan Cruz(3425223354)
x - Amaury Telemaco(3433334030)
y - Adam Bernero
Jim Brower(3142433244)
Andrew Good(2554232523)
Michael Tejera

C
Y - Kip Wells(52300)
Z - A.J. Burnett(0034)
Z - John Patterson(4044)
David Wells(23443)
Adam Eaton(34234)
Al Leiter(02334)
Casey Fossum(30405)

X
YZ - Randy Wolf(32353)
Z - Vicente Padilla(53233)
Tom Glavine(43343)
Chris Carpenter(35235)
Victor Santos(43340)

Y
Dustin Hermanson(25234)
Tony Armas, Jr.(4300)

Z
Oliver Perez(32233)

a
bcxz - Ray King(4553453453)
bcxz - Chris Reitsma(3535452333)
bcxz - Luis Vizcaino(4344343404)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(44434535444)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bxy - Kyle Farnsworth(5454254553)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(4345523455)
cxz - Billy Koch(4541422432)
cxz - Armando Almanza(334444031)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(4453244254)

Losing Dotel to the AL leaves the top of this ranking empty, as well as cutting the number of consistently dominant relievers with limited upside to less than a half-dozen. Now only Smoltz, Hawkins, Wagner, Gagne, and Koplove hold top ratings, although at least each of them ranks near the top of the LPR list. Anyone seeking saves first should target one of the non-Koplove skill quartet and then Kolb or Izzy before looking at adding Koplove and Valverde.

bx - Brad Lidge(5434344444)
bx - Armando Benitez(4544332443)
by - Julian Tavarez(2424532541)
by - Jose Valverde(3132442434)
cx - Danny Graves(2433344314)
cx - John Riedling(5402323444)
cy - Brian Fuentes(3515234442)
xy - John Franco(4433544431)
xz - Brandon Villafuerte(4351443442)
c - Toby Borland(3522251243)
c - Randy Choate(3544454253)
c - Brian Boehringer(2433434431)
x - Kiko Calero(3544544553)
x - Mike Gonzalez(3433353454)
x - Salomon Torres(4453245554)
x - T.J. Tucker(4342554344)
x - Mike Adams(43433242440
x - Ryan Madson(5454144432)
x - Elmer Dessens(4443424432)
x - Scott Linebrink(2304323443)
x - Tommy Phelps(3352455450)
x - Brian Bruney(3344442342)
y - Brian Meadows(2324453234)
y - Rocky Biddle(2341534423)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
z - Jose Mesa(4233414243)
Wilson Alvarez(4442545234)
Tim Harikkala(4443104442)
Phil Norton(3455303225)

Ryan Madson's demotion and Mike Adams' success give the middle ranking here a little more depth. However, with John Grabow, Felix Rodriguez, and Tyler Walker all slipping off while only Tim Harikkala and Wilson Alvarez join, none of the pitchers near the bottom merit much consideration.

b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(3544343433)
cxz - Mike Remlinger(3245043353)
cy - Matt Herges(3352343333)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(3224343131)
cz - Joey Eischen
cz - Paul Shuey
cz - Mike Crudale
xy - Luis Ayala(4444342244)
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
y - Tom Martin(4454033302)
y - Rod Beck(2532443230)
Scott Service(333431354)
Dave Burba(3133255334)
Cal Eldred(3240531454)
Kevin Gryboski(2323241530)
Jason Simontacchi(212234)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Troy Brohawn

c
Sun-Woo Kim(30051)

yz - Ricky Stone(3235422233)
x - Steve Kline(3343552455)
z - Ricky Bottalico(2423553553)
z - Todd Jones(4253222333)
z - Eddie Oropesa(3040332450)
z - Brian Bowles
z - Dave Coggin
z - Chad Paronto
z - Al Reyes
Blaine Neal(534)
Travis Driskill

x
y - Mike Stanton(5434045453)
Chad Harville(5434431335)
Scott Eyre(4334133535)
Duaner Sanchez(5353433213)
C.J. Nitkowski(2344334432)
Chad Fox(4454433330)

Eyre and Harville replace Gallo and Kinney as this ranking remains fluid.

y
Brooks Kieschnick(3043324103)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Scott Randall
Dave Veres

z
Brandon Puffer(3323322422)
Vladimir Nunez(1413324320)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Chad Zerbe

Villafuerte's promotion leaves this level barren of current big leaguers.

NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jose Lima(15443) and Ismael Valdez(33043).

Other decent relievers include Francis Beltran, Kirk Bullinger, Geoff Geary, Matt Kinney, and Matt Wise.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings

Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.

Today's Fantasy Rx: In his last five starts Brian Lawrence's 54545 summarizes a 2-2 record and a 2.51 ERA on a 26:1 K:BB in 32.1 IP with 28 H, 3 HR, and a 2.21 G-F. Carl Pavano's 44544 QA log highlights his 4-0 record and a 1.60 ERA on a 28:6 K:BB in 39.1 IP with 26 H, 3 HR, and a 1.59 G-F. Both starters obviously offer dramatic fantasy upside, however Pavano benefits from Florida's superior offense and defense. After his start in Tampa tomorrow, he should face Tampa and Pittsburgh at home before the break. A relatively soft schedule over the balance of the year bereft of trips to Houston and Colorado makes him an outstanding pickup right now.

Lawrence doubles next week against Arizona and Kansas City, faces Colorado at home, and then either heads to Houston or Colorado after the break. However, his superior control and ground-fly ratio limits his downside, making him an acceptable backup for anyone looking for a starter who can't get Pavano.