Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose July performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in June. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both June and July over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from June to July while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Matt Stairs, OF, KC: -.080 BA; -.358 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .048/.070; 2002: .133/.494; 2003: .081/.533.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	143	26:29	.357/.463/.769
July	206	26:34	.277/.374/.500

04JUN	55	2:9	.236/.259/.491	

The 36-year-old still offers a lot of upside as he owns a .289/.335/.507 against right-handed pitchers this year, however his playing time remains inconsistent and he almost certainly will end the year on a different team than the Royals. Owners in leagues where you lose crossover players need to deal Stairs immediately since most AL contenders already own a couple of solid power-hitting left-handers with questionable defense. Given the likelihood he'll struggle if sent back to the NL, I also recommend dealing him in almost any circumstances since Stairs also currently owns his worst all-around skills in the past decade. While he could finish the year with double-digit fantasy value, his increasing downside makes him a very risky player to own.

Melvin Mora, 3B, BAL: -.109 BA; -.336 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .156/.413; 2002: .066/.262; 2003: .111/.338.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	269	35:57	.323/.409/.539
July	266	19:52	.214/.292/.320

04JUN	53	8:6	.245/.355/.358	

If it's June, it must be a Mora injury. This year's edition features a foot sprain, which leaves him with descending averages after posting a .384/.466/.616 over the first two months of the season despite playing every day at third base for the first time. While Mora possesses the skills to earn significant MVP consideration, he needs to regain his health quickly and avoid his normal July swoon to remain among the AL elite. At least an impressive array of skills suggests some possibility of significant continued production, but I also see no reason not to shop him to see if anyone will ignore his injury and pay a trade cost commensurate with his current fantasy value.

Ruben Sierra, DH/OF, NYY: -.088 BA; -.310 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .010/.188; 2002: .128/.285; 2003: .159/.518.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	248	13:39	.331/.357/.617
July	214	13:24	.243/.285/.379

04JUN	43	4:6	.140/.204/.233	

Sierra simply doesn't receive sufficient playing time to make these trends particularly meaningful, especially since he likely will rebound from this poor June. However, after his normal July slump, Sierra historically performs so well over the last two months that you should expect him to improve in the second half. I'll discuss him again in a couple of weeks, but unless desperate for offense, you probably should wait for now.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, SF: -.065 BA; -.264 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .102/.220; 2002: .100/.438; 2003: .020/.151.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	230	12:35	.339/.371/.565
July	230	7:35	.274/.311/.361

04JUN	65	8:2	.369/.461/.585	

While Pierzynski's problems appear rooted in diminishing power production, he simply seems to excel rather quietly this month before regressing significantly in July. Of course, I didn't expect to see a 4.0 BB:K from one of the more notorious free-swingers in the game, especially since a 3.10 #P/PA demonstrates he hasn't altered his approach at the plate. A 1.96 G-F similarly indicates a pending power drop, so although he should hang around $10 all season, now also appears a good time to deal the Giants' starter since we also don't know if he'll finish the year in San Francisco.

Juan Encarnacion, OF, LA: -.052 BA; -.222 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .075/.229; 2002: .034/.213; 2003: .050/.231.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	259	19:32	.290/.338/.502
July	269	17:56	.238/.287/.331

04JUN	75	9:14	.320/.395/.587	

His success this month simply makes him better trade bait for you. Encarnacion almost certainly will not open next season as a Dodgers' starter, and I won't be shocked if Los Angeles includes him in a trade for Carlos Delgado. Even if stays in LA, the decision to platoon Dave Roberts and Jayson Werth only keeps Encarnacion in the everyday lineup until they acquire another bat. At best he'll continue starting with another team. He also could end up as a defensive replacement, and since Encarnacion also historically slumps in the second half, deal him now while his surprising June numbers keep his averages temporarily inflated.

Jeff Cirillo, 3B/1B/2B, SD: -.100 BA; -.220 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .110/.232; 2002: .122/.301; 2003: .125/.246.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	269	22:28	.309/.362/.405
July	211	14:31	.209/.258/.259

04JUN	25	1:5	.240/.269/.280	

The 34-year-old likely never will earn regular at-bats again, and considering his degrading production and slipping skills, he probably doesn't appear on many fantasy rosters. However, if you still own Cirillo, deal or cut him now since I see no more than a negligible chance that he'll earning positive fantasy value this year.

Sean Casey, 1B, CIN: -.065 BA; -.173 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .052/.076; 2002: .156/.533; 2003: .019/.018.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	293	25:36	.317/.372/.478
July	226	25:17	.252/.332/.345

04JUN	84	7:3	.286/.344/.583	

He remains in a dead heat with Jim Thome and behind only Barry Bonds among NL MVP contenders, and after these dynamic three months, he easily should earn an All-Star berth. Unfortunately for Reds' fans, his likely appearance in Houston should be the last highlight of his season since his July slump coincides with a historical downturn in the second half. While career-best marks of a 1.31 G-F and a .93 contact rate at least support his power development, a career-worst 3.08 #P/PA leaves him highly vulnerable to extended slumps since he simply swings at everything. I expect to recommend the same action at the break, but at least try to deal Casey now since his averages should steadily drop over the balance of the year.

Richard Hidalgo, OF, NYM: -.054 BA; -.170 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .030/.135; 2002: .129/.397; 2003: .045/.099.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	236	26:47	.305/.377/.538
July	259	23:56	.251/.324/.421

04JUN	52	2:14	.192/.222/.288	

Obviously Hidalgo shouldn't experience his normal slump since at least joining the Mets should assure him of regular playing time. A career-best 4.05 #P/PA and impressive .65 G-F also suggests solid upside, however a .73 contact rate still worries me. Wait to see how he adapts to Shea before taking any other action.

Jeff Kent, 2B, HOU: -.068 BA; -.135 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .092/.215; 2002: .035/.047; 2003: .094/.189.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	269	28:33	.368/.434/.572
July	253	13:34	.300/.341/.530

04JUN	76	10:15	.250/.333/.474	

With the 36-year-old already slumping after a surprisingly strong May, I doubt he'll drop again next month. All his skills remain in line with his recent marks, so since he also still plays in the great hitters' park, he at least should hold his current averages all season. Kent similarly will coast to 100 RBI thanks to his lineups slot, however don't expect more than a dozen more homers. Wait until after Houston's weeklong road trip in San Diego and Los Angeles immediately prior to the All-Star break before seeking to add Kent to your team.

Aubrey Huff, 3B/1B/DH, TB: -.053 BA; -.124 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between June and July:
2001: .113/.319; 2002: .025/.106; 2003: .043/.016.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	282	22:37	.316/.367/.486
July	281	25:41	.263/.327/.402

04JUN	83	10:4	.277/.362/.473	

Given that Huff should rebound in August while significantly improving in the second half, I don't expect him to experience any extended slump this year. While most of his skills seem slightly down, a career-best .91 G-F gives Huff a good chance of approaching a .325 BA over the balance of the season. Tampa Bay's offense also appears on the upswing, so take advantage of his currently depressed averages to acquire Huff before his value skyrockets.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Two relatively quiet moves in the past day offer welcome opportunities for fantasy participants. First, if Carlos Guillen signs an extension as expected, his keeper value jumps significantly, making him an excellent target for rebuilding teams since he likely only cost a few bucks in most leagues. Second, the Jason Grimsley-for-Denny Bautista trade, other than qualifying as a superb steal for the Royals, eliminates most of Grimsley's roto value despite his unbelievable 7.88 G-F. The Orioles possess a weaker defense and much worse bullpen than the Royals, not to mention a better hitters' park, which means Grimsley is no longer safe roster filler. Conversely, Bautista moves into a much better situation where he'll merit definite FAAB attention later in the season.