Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose July performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in June. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both June and July over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from June to July while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

Jacque Jones qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from his placement on last month's Squashed Junebugs list. Instead of discussing him in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Jacque Jones, OF, MIN: +.075 BA; +.226 OPS. June: wait.
Last month he still looked rather respectable, but Jones began slumping severely almost immediately after I discussed him. He still hasn't recovered and currently owns a .203/.250/.422 in 64 June at-bats. Once Shannon Stewart returns, platooning Jones with Lew Ford looks like a great move, though given the Twins' many questionable personnel decisions this season, I suspect they instead will let Jones continue struggling against lefties. However, Jones also remains relatively patient and capable of rebounding nicely. Buying low now could give you a nice boost over the balance of the year.
July: target.

Jeff Bagwell, 1B, HOU: +.086 BA; +.319 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between June and July:
2001: .076/.199; 2002: .149/.496; 2003: .032/.275.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	298	35:70	.238/.325/.430
July	284	53:54	.324/.430/.644

04JUN	64	12:15	.250/.377/.453	

I again will recommend Bagwell in a few weeks since he ranks among the best second half batters in the game, however charging after him now gives you a valuable extra month of stats. A career-best 4.23 #P/PA and a .86 G-F both indicate the potential for an MVP run in the second half, although a .74 contact rate indicates potential BA problems for the 36-year-old future Hall of Famer. Yet he still hits in the middle of one of baseball's best lineups in a great hitters' park, giving Bagwell significant quantitative upside. Make every effort to acquire him now for a welcome four-category boost.

Abraham O. Nunez, 2B/IF, PIT: +.057 BA; +.202 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between June and July:
2001: .008/.011; 2002: .054/.315; 2003: .143/.446.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	154	14:27	.227/.296/.279
July	162	20:30	.284/.376/.401

04JUN	27	0:5	.222/.222/.296	

While Nunez also normally improves in the second half, he simply isn't seeing enough at-bats this year to help a fantasy team. The additions of Jose Castillo, Bobby Hill, and Chris Stynes, as well as the improvement demonstrated by Rob Mackowiak and Jack Wilson, give the Pirates no reason to start Nunez on a regular basis. Yes, he continues to appear as a defensive replacement in a majority of games, but with his batting skills deteriorating even as he hits his prime, Nunez barely belongs in the majors. Deal or cut him unless desperate for a middle infielder who won't hurt your average too badly.

Juan Pierre, OF, FLO: +.051 BA; +.117 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between June and July:
2001: .078/.190; 2002: .046/.126; 2003: .021/.019.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
June	319	21:15	.285/.331/.335
July	292	20:16	.336/.386/.397

04JUN	76	7:10	.237/.310/.289	

With a .94 contact rate and career-best marks of a 3.64 #P/PA and 2.11 G-F, Pierre's batting skill continues developing nicely as he reaches his prime. The big problem is that his steal success rate sunk this spring to a very worrisome 62%, which gives us little hope of Pierre exceeding two-thirds of the 65 bases he stole last season. Of course, considering he leads the league in at-bats while holding a .300 average and ranks third in the NL in steals, he remains quite valuable, just only at the $30 level instead of the $45 he earned in 2003. If you need help in those categories, find a way to acquire Pierre before his July improvement renders him untouchable for the rest of this year.

Andres Galarraga, Aaron Boone, and Travis Lee all normally excel in July, but the first two remain unsigned and a torn labrum probably will keep Lee out all season. Of course, if Galarraga or Boone sign in the near future, definitely look to add them to your team; Galarraga in particular qualifies as an intriguing sleeper due to his unexpectedly strong 2003 performance.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Any team in contention should seek to add players now before owners who opt to rebuild finish dumping their expiring contracts. If available in your league, Bagwell and Pierre offer dramatic upgrades, especially if you can obtain them for a few prospects or secondary keepers who don't play vital current roles for you.