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June
9th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2004 Pitching: June AL Roto Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Dusty Bergman, 26, LH Reliever
1-0 on a 24:6 K:BB in 35 IP over 18 G
with 35 H, 1 HR, and a 2.83 ERA for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

The Angels promoted Bergman to replace the injured Troy Percival, however he only should stay in the majors until either Percival or Donnelly return since the team appears quite comfortable without a left-handed reliever. Of course, after struggling in his previous AAA seasons, Bergman excelled this spring, finally translating his consistently solid strikeout and walk rates into success at the highest minor league level. He shouldn't emerge as more than quality roster filler this year, but thanks to the protection provided him by the rest of Anaheim's outstanding relief corps, feel free to target him if you need a short-term replacement on your pitching staff.


Baltimore: Aaron Rakers, 27, RH Reliever
1-3 and 1 Save on a 39:7 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 1 GS(23G)
with 31 H, 5 HR, and a 4.13 ERA for AAA Ottawa(IL).

Rakers looks like the best reliever in the organization, and I can't fathom why Baltimore refuse to promote him. Not only does he rank with the most dominant pitchers in the upper minors, Rakers 1.9 BB/9 limits his downside. Only a 1.4 HR/9 worries me at all, but since he hasn't posted poor homer rate marks in the past, I don't expect this tater tendency to cause him problems in the majors. Attempt to acquire Rakers as soon he joins Baltimore since I suspect he at least will emerge as Jorge Julio's set-up man by year's end.


Boston: Matt Duff, 29, RH Reliever
2-2 and 4 Saves on a 32:13 K:BB in 34.1 IP over 24 G
with 32 H, 1 HR, and a 3.41 ERA for AAA Pawtucket(IL).

While he doesn't own perfect control and struggled in his 2002 debut with St. Louis, Duff deserves a shot in the majors due to his impressive dominance and all-around solid skill set. Yes, he shouldn't see too much time at the end of games thanks to the presence of relief studs like Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin, and Alan Embree, however Duff appears as prepared to contribute in the middle innings as anyone previously summoned from Pawtucket this season. Of course, you still should wait until he proves he can maintain low qualitative stats with Boston before adding Duff to your roster, but he should emerge as a useful fantasy option in the near future.


Chicago White Sox: Jason Grilli, 27, RH Starter
3-4 on a 49:31 K:BB in 63.2 IP over 11 GS
with 60 H, 10 HR, and a 4.10 ERA for AAA Charlotte(IL).

If the Sox neither acquire a new starter nor allow Felix Diaz, Jon Rauch, or Neal Cotts another shot as their #5 starter, Grilli appears next in line due to his respectable ERA and a current spot on the 40-man roster that gives him an edge over Josh Stewart. Of course, Grilli's weak control and homer problems make him a very risky choice, so Chicago hopefully first will give one of their better prospects a second chance. Grilli just doesn't appear ready to succeed in the majors, so ignore him indefinitely barring unlikely skill improvement after he eventually joins the Sox.


Cleveland: Scott Elarton, 28, RH Starter
0-6 on a 23:20 K:BB in 41.1 IP over 8 GS
with 57 H, 8 HR, a .93 G-F, and a 9.80 ERA for Colorado.
1-1 on a 10:5 K:BB in 20 IP over 3 GS
with 19 H, 1 HR, and a 3.15 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).

Yes, Elarton finally might fulfill his former promise in an environment more conducive to pitching than Houston or Colorado, but his base skills remain poor. Three good starts in the International League don't give me any confidence that he can succeed in the majors, and his lack of dominance especially worries me. Hopefully Cleveland will give him another couple months to see if his early effectiveness isn't a fluke, however if he joins the Indians in the near future, ignore Elarton since he owns only a negligible chance to contribute to fantasy teams this year given his disastrous performance in recent seasons.


Detroit: Shane Loux, 24, RH Starter
6-5 on a 58:15 K:BB in 81.2 IP over 12 GS
with 70 H, 5 HR, and a 3.86 ERA for AAA Toledo(IL).

Loux looked like the best bet to complete Detroit's rotation this spring, but an impressive array of solid starts from Gary Knotts and Nate Robertson still leave no room for Loux two months into the season. While I agree his 6.4 K/9 suggested limited upside, an all-around solid skill set makes him a good bet to succeed when next recalled. Anyone looking for a likely quality starter should target Loux when he rejoins to the Tigers.


Kansas City: Rudy Seanez, 35, RH Reliever
2-1 on a 41:12 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 23 G
with 18 H, 3 HR, and a 1.62 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL).

If the Royals plan to rebuild, they need to promote Seanez immediately since he should net them a decent prospect if he even only echoes these skills for two months with Kansas City. Of course, after two questionable seasons in the majors, few organizations likely trust the veteran, but the Royals don't possess many acceptable alternatives. Still, you should wait until he appears established in Kansas City's bullpen before considering Seanez for your team.


Minnesota: Matt Guerrier, 25, RH Starter
3-5 on a 55:10 K:BB in 76 IP over 12 GS
with 64 H, 10 HR, and a 2.96 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

Allowing Rick Helling to depart the organization doesn't look like a significant mistake considering how well Dave Gassner, Willie Eyre, and Guerrier continue to pitch at Rochester. Despite his persistent homer problem, Guerrier looks like the next logical choice to join the Twins' rotation, and I see no reason why he can't hold a starting spot for a few seasons. He simply doesn't walk enough batters to post a poor WHIP, so as long as he only allows a couple of solo shots a game, he quickly could emerge as an excellent fantasy option. Target Guerrier upon his promotion, although keeping him reserved until he demonstrates this skill level in Minnesota remains the safest course of action.


New York Yankees: Brad Halsey, 23, LH Starter
6-2 on a 46:19 K:BB in 77 IP over 12 GS
with 70 H, 1 HR, and a 2.57 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).

The Yankees likely will need to employ a starting prospect this summer if they continue to field a rotation full primarily of injured and ineffective starters. Halsey appears the logical choice after slamming to AAA only two seasons after New York selected him in the 8th round of the 2002 draft. He excelled at A+ Tampa(FSL) last year before struggling at AAA Trenton(EL) only due to a porous defense. Halsey's success at Columbus this season makes him an intriguing candidate either for promotion or trade, however since he possesses the skills to succeed for almost any team, target him once he reaches the majors.


Oakland: Mike Wood, 24, RH Starter
8-3 on a 55:19 K:BB in 70 IP over 12 GS
with 66 H, 7 HR, and a 2.44 ERA for AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Only an unimpressive strikeout rate makes Wood apparently unacceptable to the Athletics. He belongs in the majors after succeeding at Sacramento for the last season; somehow even his dominance continues to improve as he matures as a pitcher. Wood appears ready to succeed in any big league role; he only lacks the necessary opportunity to emerge as a viable fantasy option. Unfortunately, I don't see him finding many innings if he stays with Oakland, so wait until you see an organization actually express faith in his abilities before rostering Wood.


Seattle: George Sherrill, 27, LH Starter
2-0 and 5 Saves on a 44:6 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 23 G
with 24 H, 3 HR, and a 1.87 ERA for AAA Tacoma(PCL).

As any rebuilding of the Mariners should include a trade of the surprisingly effective Ron Villone, as well as lefty specialist Mike Myers, we should see Sherrill in Seattle later this summer. He obviously appears ready to emerge as a dominant reliever as I don't see anything resembling a problem in his stats. Only wait until Seattle's manager finds a regular role for Sherrill before strongly considering him to improve your qualitative foundation.


Tampa Bay: Bobby Seay, 25, LH Reliever
1-1 on a 21:5 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 21 G
with 18 H, 3 HR, and a 1.42 ERA for AAA Durham(IL).

Although the Rays don't need another lefty given the impressive performances of Trever Miller and John Halama, the former Bonus Baby merits a long look at some point this year. Seay's skills strongly suggest he should succeed in the majors, and after Tampa outbid several teams to sign him eight seasons ago, I see no reason why they wouldn't want to see a return on that investment. Of course, he doesn't appear likely to help fantasy teams right now as a lefty specialist, so you probably should ignore Seay this season, but he at least should develop into decent roster filler by September.


Texas: John Wasdin, 31, RH Starter
0-0 on a 4:0 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 1 GS
with 7 H, 1 HR, a 5-9 G-F, and a 5.79 ERA for Texas.
4-1 on a 50:13 K:BB in 67.2 IP over 10 GS(12G)
with 65 H, 6 HR, and a 3.72 ERA for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

Considering he hasn't pitched effectively in the majors since 2001 with Baltimore, Wasdin needs to take advantage of his next opportunity. Of course, his performance as a AAA starter leads teams to give him spot starts when they instead need to leave him in long relief. I believe Wasdin still could emerge as useful bullpen filler for a few years, but the high expectations created by an increasing number of productive seasons while starting in the minors probably will prevent him from securing the role he needs to succeed. Ignore Wasdin unless your league counts AAA stats since I don't envision him contributing to winning fantasy teams any time soon.


Toronto: Kevin Frederick, 27, RH Reliever
0-0 and 2 Saves on a 7:1 K:BB in 9 IP over 6 G
with 5 H, 1 HR, and a 1.00 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).
2-0 and 1 Save on a 26:5 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 18 G
with 15 H, 1 HR, and a 1.27 ERA for AA New Hampshire(EL).

An unimpressive debut with Minnesota in 2002 let the Twins to waive him despite an impressive minor league career. The Jays grabbed him last spring, however hit and homer problems forced Frederick back to AA New Haven(EL). His reemergence this season places him in line for a promotion given the rate Toronto churns relievers, however despite my faith in Frederick's skills, pitching in the Jays's bullpen isn't conducive to producing the low qualitative stats middle relievers need to merit fantasy consideration. Wait until he either begins dominating or sneaks into a late-inning role before rostering Frederick in any league.


We'll continue tomorrow with National League pitching prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: While yesterday's return of Luis Rivas and Frank Catalanotto should result in respectively diminished playing time for Mike Cuddyer and Alexis Rios, don't plan to cut either player quite yet. Austin Kearns' return a couple weeks ago theoretically forced Wily Mo Pena into a backup role, but a recurrence of Kearns' problems landed him on the DL and makes Pena a starter again for the rest of the month. Yes, Rios probably needs more seasoning given his current performance, but Cuddyer's playing decently and should continue see regular at-bats at a variety of positions. He remains a useful player to own in any AL league.


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