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June
7th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2004 Hitting: June AL Roto Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Zach Sorensen, 27, SS/OF-S
0/8 for .000/.111/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 1:3 BB:K for AAA Buffalo(IL).
21/49 for .429/.491/.551 with 0 HR, 7 RBI, 8 R, 3/5 SB%,
and a 7:6 BB:K for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).
24/93 for .258/.366/.333 with 1 HR, 9 RBI, 12 R, 9/10 SB%
and a 17:19 BB:K for AA Akron(EL).

Although Angels' fans hope that they won't suffer any more injuries this year, Anaheim at least harbors a respectable middle infield replacement after swiping Sorensen from the Indians a couple weeks ago for a PTBN. Yes, he flailed terribly in his debut last year, compiling a .135/.273/.243 in 37 AB for Cleveland, however his improved plate discipline and solid speed skills give him some fantasy upside. While some combination of Alfredo Amezaga, Shane Halter, and Chone Figgins likely will cover any brief DL stints for Kennedy or Eckstein, Sorensen offers more offensive upside given his current skills. If you see him promoted and beginning to play regularly, target Sorensen in leagues where you need a BA and SB boost.


Baltimore: Eddy Garabito, 25, SS-S
46/139 for .331/.377/.446 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 18 R, 5/10 SB%,
and a 10:11 BB:K for AAA Ottawa(IL).

While Garabito's development in this fifth AAA season theoretically increases his upside, I still see significant problems. All his averages appear elevated only due to his .92 contact rate, and I see no evidence he can maintain that level of batting effectiveness. Diminishing speed skills and limited power potential also don't impress me, however he at least owns enough talent to merit a cup-of-coffee. Garabito will emerge as a utility player if he remains in Baltimore due to the presence of Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora, Brian Roberts, Jerry Hairston, and Mike Fontonet, but unless he finds an unexpected starting job via trade, wait until he demonstrates the ability to maintain these marks as an MLB backup before considering him for your roster.


Boston: Adam Hyzdu, 32, OF-R
52/196 for .265/.381/.526 with 12 HR, 30 RBI, 41 R, 1/3 SB%,
and a 36:43 BB:K for AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Hyzdu looks like a logical call-up once Boston management tires of the ineptness displayed by players like Gabe Kapler. The journeyman outfielder ranks as one of the premier AAAA mashers in the game, and his disciplined hitting style meshes nicely with the current Red Sox offense. Of course, I don't expect him to find much playing time, especially once Troy Nixon returns, so only target Hyzdu if you need a temporary outfielder who shouldn't hurt your BA and might produce decent quantitative stats.


Chicago White Sox: Bryant Nelson, 30, 2B-S
76/236 for .322/.375/.564 with 10 HR, 36 RBI, 35 R, 4/6 SB%,
and a 21:17 BB:K for AAA Charlotte(IL).

After enjoying a brief look in the majors in 2002, Nelson spent last season with Daiei in Japan, where he struggled to a .228/.256/.323 line in 167 at-bats. Fortunately, this impressive rebound after returning to an affiliated team makes him a candidate for promotion thanks to Chicago's limited upper-level infield options. His performance looks in line with his most recent AAA numbers, and continued plate discipline development suggests Nelson at least could perform adequately if given a shot in the majors. However, fantasy owners should wait until Nelson begins playing a couple times a week for the Sox before attempting to add him.


Cleveland: Russ Branyan, 28, OF/2B/1B-L
45/177 for .254/.380/.497 with 11 HR, 34 RBI, 31 R, 4/5 SB%,
and a 35:63 BB:K between AAA Richmond(IL) and AAA Buffalo(IL).

With Ben Broussard, Alex Escobar, and Coco Crisp dragging down the entire Cleveland offense, recalling former Indians' prospect Branyan, reacquired a month ago from Atlanta for AA RHP Scott Sturkie, might give the lineup a welcome boost. Yes, he still struggles to post an acceptable BA, but Branyan owns a .268/.363/.537 in 149 AB since returning to his original organization. His power and on-base potential makes him a better fit for Cleveland right now than watching youngsters struggle. If you see Branyan in the majors and can afford a BA hit in exchange for a quantitative boost, target him for your team.


Detroit: Andy Barkett, 29, 1B-L
54/178 for .303/.365/.522 with 10 HR, 32 RBI, 30 R, 3/7 SB%,
and an 18:36 BB:K for AAA Toledo(IL).

Dmitri Young's return should keep Mud Hens like Barkett, Marcus Thames, and Joe Vitiello from joining the Tigers this half, however all three appeared prepared to contribute in the majors. Barkett probably holds a slight advantage over his teammates in that the lefty first baseman fits better in Detroit than another outfielder like Thames or the right-handed Vitiello. Unfortunately, Brandon Inge's emergence as a starting utilityman gives Alan Trammell plenty of everyday options without considering a minor league veteran, so ignore Barkett barring an impressive debut week that catches Trammell's attention.


Kansas City: Jed Hansen, 31, OF/IF-R
51/166 for .307/.386/.620 with 12 HR, 32 RBI, 31 R, 3/5 SB%,
and a 21:36 BB:K for AAA Omaha(PCL).

Once the Royals' rebuilding begins, Hansen should receive a summons to spend the second half in Kansas City since his power, plate discipline, and versatility make him a useful player on Tony Pena's bench. He can handle any position save catcher, and I won't be shocked if he emerges as frequent starter in the soon-to-be-depleted lineup. Of course, his failure to approach this level of excellence in previous seasons at Omaha suggests the strong possibility of a second-half slump, but Hansen at least also managed a .309/.394/.426 in 94 at-bats with the Royals in 1997. Wait until he wins that elusive starting job before rostering him in any league.


Minnesota: Jason Kubel, 22, OF-L
27/73 for .370/.403/.493 with 0 HR, 8 RBI, 11 R, 6/8 SB%,
and a 4:2 BB:K for AAA Rochester(IL).
52/138 for .377/.453/.667 with 6 HR, 29 RBI, 25 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 19:19 BB:K for AA New Britain(EL).

While Kubel hasn't impressed me in the past due to his weak quantitative marks and the tremendous competition faced by Minnesota outfield prospects, his outstanding production and quick promotion this year could force him to the majors very soon. Remember that the Twins once dealt their best outfielder at the deadline to improve their pitching, and if they move someone like pending free agent Jacque Jones, Kubel could replace him. He doesn't own great speed skills, but his plate discipline makes him a great #2 hitter. Of course, he also plays for the same organization that refuses to gave Doug Mientkiewicz an extension rather than deploy Justin Morneau every day, so Kubel also could follow the Mike Restovich path, spending a few years in the upper minors. Yet somehow I expect the Twins like Kubel more than any young outfielder in the system. Definitely aim to acquire him once he reaches the majors.


New York Yankees: Darren Bragg, 34, OF-L
59/192 for .307/.399/.500 with 6 HR, 21 RBI, 30 R, 5/7 SB%,
and a 30:34 BB:K for AAA Columbus(IL).

The extended fascination with Bubba Crosby, not to mention the easy ability to option and recall Crosby, keeps Bragg at Columbus despite an impressive performance this season that merits a promotion. He still likely should see Yankee Stadium by the second half given the age and declining defensive skills of most Yankee outfielders, however Bragg no longer offers much upside for fantasy owners. Only target him if your only other options as roster filler offer similarly limited upside yet lacks Bragg's solid plate discipline.


Oakland: Mike Edwards, 27, 3B/1B-R
72/229 for .314/.397/.454 with 5 HR, 33 RBI, 37 R, 5/6 SB%,
and a 25:35 BB:K for AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Edwards probably belongs in the majors since he offers the most offensive upside among available replacement for Eric Chavez. Unfortunately, 11 errors in 60 games this year apparently make him an unacceptable alternative to the reigning AL Gold Glover. Hopefully someone will pry him from Oakland since his .386 career minor league OBP warrants a spot near the top of some of the baseball's weakest lineups. Certainly attempt to acquire Edwards if you see a decent chance for him to receive regular at-bats in the majors.


Seattle: Bucky Jacobsen, 28, DH/1B-R
57/184 for .310/.389/.625 with 13 HR, 51 RBI, 31 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 21:52 BB:K for AAA Tacoma(PCL).

St. Louis foolishly allowed the Southern League MVP runner-up to depart following last season, when he posted a .298/.388/.564 on a 56:91 BB:K in 447 at-bats for AA Tennessee. Of course, the Cardinals don't have room for another right-handed first baseman in the majors, but Jacobsen's continued excellence for Tacoma makes him a potential successor to either Edgar Martinez or John Olerud. Don't be surprised if Seattle recalls him once they begin rebuilding, and while I don't expect Jacobsen to see much playing time in 2004, anyone looking towards next year should view him as an intriguing target.


Tampa Bay: B.J. Upton, 19, SS-R
29/92 for .315/.422/.565 with 6 HR, 14 RBI, 23 R, 5/7 SB%,
and a 16:29 BB:K for AAA Durham(IL).
34/104 for .327/.407/.471 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 21 R, 3/3 SB%,
and a 14:28 BB:K for AA Montgomery(SL).

The top prospect in the minors probably belongs in Tampa Bay now, and considering the competition, Upton still could make a strong run at Rookie of the Year honors if promoted soon. Since he shouldn't qualify for Super 2 arbitration status, I see no reason to keep him down any longer. Yes, his 15 errors in 46 games are troublesome, but his five-category, seven-skill upside will give the Rays' lineup an additional infusion of youth and speed. Upton owns the across-the-board skills necessary to approach $30 by his second season, making him the best player to acquire in almost any keeper league, as well as an excellent choice for teams seeking a second-half boost in 2004.


Texas: Peter Zoccolillo, 27, OF-L
55/189 for .291/.368/.529 with 11 HR, 44 RBI, 37 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 25:30 BB:K for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

With the Rangers' outfield still in shambles, hopefully they soon will give the minor league journeyman the second chance he deserves. Yes, he bombed his initial cup-of-coffee last September, compiling a miserable .108/.154/.135 in 37 at-bats on a 2:13 BB:K for Milwaukee. However, Zoccolillo owns god plate discipline, not to mention surprisingly power potential that manifested over his last two years at AAA. Target Zoccolillo once Texas promotes him since he offers much upside than almost any other backup outfielder in the league.


Toronto: Gabe Gross, 24, OF-L
50/182 for .275/.351/.429 with 4 HR, 20 RBI, 25 R, 2/6 SB%,
and a 22:48 BB:K for AAA Syracuse(IL).

A growing number of Jays' injuries should force Gross to the majors no later than the end of July, and while he isn't producing particularly impressive stats, he still owns a solid base of skills that should enable him to develop into a quality big leaguer. Expecting him to develop into more than a respectable $20 player seems overly ambitious given his unimpressive AAA season, but at least Gross owns the respectable plate discipline necessary to hold an above-average BA. Unfortunately, he seems slightly overrated right now in consideration of his actual production, so only target him if your league underrates rookies or you can quickly spin him into a more productive veteran.


We'll continue tomorrow with National League hitting prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: MLB's 2004 First-Year Player Draft begins today at 12pm(CDT). Head to MLB.com both to listen to the draft unfolding and to see video analysis of the early rounds.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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