Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Danny Bautista, OF
59/184 for .321/.379/.495 with 7 HR, 31 RBI, 27 R, 3/5 SB%,
and a 16:17 BB:K.

Somehow, despite turning 32 last week, Bautista now owns both the best skills and stats of his career. His current numbers compare very favorably with the .325/.364/.500 he posted in 154 at-bats in 2002 before a season-ending injury derailed his potential career year. However, Bautista's 1.78 G-F and .91 contact rate now give him much better power potential than the 2.11 G-F and .86 contact rate he owned two seasons ago. While I still expect him to slip under a .300 BA and .800 OPS at some point, he still seems a good bet to finish around a .295/20/80 if he stays healthy. Unless you see an Arizona fan willing to overpay significantly, wait with the expectation that Bautista finally will fulfill scouts' expectations by earning around $20 this year.

Atlanta: Johnny Estrada, C
51/149 for .342/.399/.503 with 3 HR, 31 RBI, 23 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 11:16 BB:K.

After posting a .328/.393/.494 in 354 at-bats at AAA Richmond(IL) last year, Estrada looks even better in the majors this season. Platooning him with a quality lefty masher is a good idea given his .268/.302/.390 performance against lefties, but his dominant production versus right-handed pitchers makes him one of the best catchers in baseball right now. A 3.43 #P/PA also demonstrates developing patience, and his .89 contact rate and 1.26 G-F supports this power potential. However, Estrada likely can't hold a .900+ OPS given his career .624 OPS prior to 2004, so remain willing to shop Estrada if you can upgrade a couple of other positions in return.

Chicago Cubs: Aramis Ramirez, 3B
61/199 for .307/.355/.558 with 11 HR, 41 RBI, 36 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 15:29 BB:K.

Considering Ramirez usually struggles for a couple months before excelling down the stretch, the 25-year-old appears on track for a career year. Unfortunately, given Ramirez's normal correlation between his skills and production, a 3.64 #P/PA and .95 G-F doesn't quite support his current output. Of course, as his .85 contact rate ranks as the best mark of his career, Ramirez appears capable of maintaining a .300 BA. Target Ramirez since he should produce similar stats to likely All-Stars Scott Rolen and Mike Lowell while not costing as much in trade.

Cincinnati: Juan Castro, 3B/SS
25/84 for .298/.337/.429 with 1 HR, 9 RBI, 11 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:17 BB:K.

Castro never reached a .255 BA prior to this season, so expecting him to maintain his current average is a mistake. His 3.40 #P/PA, 1.38 G-F, and .80 contact rate all suggest his average belongs much closer to his .222 career mark rather than his currently elevated level. Deal or cut him in favor of a reserve who can help you quantitatively since I don't expect Castro to post positive fantasy value over the balance of the year.

Colorado: Mark Sweeney, 1B/OF
21/66 for .318/.472/.545 with 2 HR, 17 RBI, 10 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 20:16 BB:K.

Since Sweeney's 4.01 #P/PA and .70 G-F both appear right in line with his established skill level, seeing this performance in such a small sample size isn't surprising, especially considering the benefits of playing in Coors. Of course, he also only managed a .733 OPS in slightly more at-bats last season, so Sweeney's averages should fall steadily. Shop him for someone more likely to maintain a .300 BA and provide decent quantitative marks.

Florida: Mike Lowell, 3B
65/188 for .346/.426/.670 with 14 HR, 34 RBI, 36 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 25:22 BB:K.

With a long-term deal and heart-of-the-order lineup slot, the 30-year-old Lowell appears set to enjoy a career year if he stays healthy. While he normally suffers from some second-half problems, career-best marks of a .13 walk rate and .88 contact rate support these lofty averages. Expect some gradual stat erosion, however you probably should wait since Lowell's level of production will exceed his draft cost in most leagues.

Houston: Craig Biggio, OF
62/203 for .305/.353/.493 with 8 HR, 26 RBI, 35 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 7:28 BB:K.

With Adam Everett's value finally falling to expected levels, the 38-year-old Biggio's stats show the biggest discontinuity with his current skill level. His .86 contact rate simply can't negate the effects of a career-worst 3.35 #P/PA. Yet that contact rate also supports a BA near .300, and when combined with his career-best 1.03 G-F, I see no reason Biggio can't approach 20 homers one more time. Of course, his perceived value still likely exceeds his fantasy contribution over the balance of the season, making him a good choice to deal for a younger, safer player with a better chance of exceeding $20 this year.

Los Angeles: Jose Hernandez, 2B/UT
25/70 for .357/.416/.586 with 4 HR, 7 RBI, 11 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 6:12 BB:K.

Signing Hernandez to replace the traded Jolbert Cabrera as Alex Cora's platoon partner and universal Dodgers' backup looks like one of DePodesta's best moves. However, 34-year-old strikeout-prone infielders don't normally manage their first .300 season in Los Angeles while also posting a career-best 1.24 G-F. The odds of Hernandez maintaining his current performance are quite poor, yet still wait since his current role allows him to maximize his upside by minimizing his exposure against tough right-handers.

Milwaukee: Lyle Overbay, 1B
61/185 for .330/.385/.551 with 6 HR, 40 RBI, 22 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 19:40 BB:K.

Given Overbay's .342/.411/.531 career minor league performance, nothing in his current stat line qualifies as an obvious surprise; like Erubiel Durazo, Arizona just gave up on another impressive offensive prospect for no logical reason. Now he should anchor Milwaukee's offense for the next year until Prince Fielder's development allows them to swap Overbay for prospects next July. Fortunately for Brewers' fans, he seems perfectly capable of maintaining these averages despite a 1.48 G-F. Since an abundance of homers doesn't fuel his production, he also should rebound from slumps quicker than traditional power hitters. The downside of this skill set is that he'll accumulate a great BA and impressive RBI numbers without contributing much in any other category, but I still see no reason not to wait unless a rebuilding team will insure your in-the-money finish by overpaying for Overbay.

Montreal: Brian Schneider, C
36/144 for .250/.301/.465 with 7 HR, 18 RBI, 16 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 10:17 BB:K.

Playing every day obviously agrees with Schneider as his .766 OPS leads an otherwise miserably disappointing group of Montreal regulars. I'm surprised his average isn't higher given his career-best .88 contact rate and a developing 1.24 G-F. He could approach 20 homers and 70 RBI this year if a couple of his teammates start producing as expected, so target Schneider since I even expect his BA to continue rising in conjunction with his increasing quantitative marks.

New York Mets: Todd Zeile, 3B/1B
30/117 for .256/.338/.402 with 3 HR, 12 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 14:29 BB:K.

With Mike Piazza increasingly secure at first base and Jason Phillips finally producing as expected, displacing Ty Wigginton is Zeile's best chance to continue playing every day. Yet Wigginton's defense makes him useful to the Mets and I expect him to remain at third until David Wright reaches the majors this fall. Zeile isn't a terrible option as your cornerman, but since the 38-year-old shouldn't hold these averages all seasons, see if you can deal him for a back-up capable of producing more if awarded regular at-bats.

Philadelphia: David Bell, 3B
48/167 for .287/.372/.473 with 6 HR, 24 RBI, 23 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 21:26 BB:K.

Bell's 3.88 #P/PA, 1.08 G-F, .13 walk rate, and .84 contact rate aren't even superior to his marks last year, when Bell suffered a .195/.296/.283 due to injury problems. Unfortunately, he never previously exceeded a .268 BA or .763 OPS, but spending his prime in a couple of extreme pitchers' parks limited his upside. If CB Park continues looking like Coors' East, Bell should coast to career-best averages and approach his career bests of 21 HR and 78 RBI. I suspect he'll fall somewhat short of both marks, however considering his strong supporting skills, only shop Bell if you can use him to address a specific weakness elsewhere on your team.

Pittsburgh: Rob Mackowiak, 3B/OF
42/152 for .276/.351/.553 with 11 HR, 31 RBI, 27 R, 5/7 SB%,
and a 15:37 BB:K.

Following the birth of his first child last Saturday morning, Mackowiak crushed a walk-off grand slam before smacking a game-tying blast in the nightcap of the doubleheader. His current five-category contribution makes him one of the most surprisingly valuable players in baseball. Unfortunately, considering he barely reached an .800 OPS even during his minor league seasons, the 27-year-old will decline in the second half. His 3.38 #P/PA indicates a worrisome loss of plate patience, making him a BA risk in addition to the likelihood Mackowiak's playing time will decrease once Freddy Sanchez returns. Take advantage of his nationwide publicity from last weekend to deal Mackowiak before his value begins dropping.

San Diego: Terrence Long, OF
26/91 for .283/.333/.396 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 6:15 BB:K.

With Long holding a surprisingly strong average despite his career-worst 3.24 #P/PA, he continues to receive a surprising amount of playing time. However, a .84 contact rate similarly suggests his BA will drop towards the .242 he averaged the last two seasons, and he simply isn't contributing anything quantitatively. Try to deal him for a comparably-valued backup who might at least steal a dozen bases for you.

San Francisco: Barry Bonds, OF
38/104 for .365/.618/.837 with 14 HR, 29 RBI, 38 R, 3/3 SB%,
and a 69:10 BB:K.

Calling perhaps the best batter in history an overachiever appears overly obvious, but even the 39-year-old Bonds probably can't maintain his current averages. Of course, career-best marks of a .90 contact rate and .53 G-F give him the best power potential of his life. His .36 IBB/9 also exceeds his .31 BB/9, so his skills don't indicate any pending decline, especially considering he usually excels after the break. Only the Giants' otherwise inept lineup will keep Bonds from leading the league in offensive fantasy value. Look to acquire him, arguing that Bonds' reduced at-bats and RBI numbers limit his roto upside.

St. Louis: Ray Lankford, OF
33/122 for .270/.375/.443 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, 22 R, 2/4 SB%,
and a 20:30 BB:K.

Examining Scott Rolen and his league-leading RBI total might be a decent idea, but the Cardinals' third baseman should continue excelling all season. The 36-year-old Lankford's success, who sat out last season and hasn't posted a BA over .253 this millennium, ranks as a much bigger surprise. Yes, his power numbers are weak, but St. Louis desperately needs someone capable of holding a .375 OBP at the top of the lineup, even if he occupies a corner outfield slot. His 4.08 #P/PA at least suggests he owns the skills necessary to maintain that mark, however I don't see him holding an average much above .250 with a .75 contact rate. Lankford offers little upside in standard leagues, and the strong chance that the Cardinals will find a superior left fielder by August makes him a good player to deal now while he remains a starter.

We'll continue tomorrow with American League overachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Acquiring an overachiever usually requires overpaying, however Bonds, Schneider, and Aramis Ramirez own the skills necessary to maintain or increase their respective current levels of production. Finding a way to add any of them to your team at reasonable cost will give you a valuable offensive anchor for the majority of the season.