Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from May to June. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from May to June while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Two pitchers qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from their placement on last month's Wilting Mayflowers list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Elmer Dessens, RH Reliever, ARI: -1.78 ERA. May: wait.
Unlike Ramon Ortiz in Anaheim, Dessens continues to pitch regularly even in the bullpen. However, his 0:0 K:BB in 6 IP with 5 H and 1 HR reinforces my belief in his deteriorating skills. He doesn't merit a roster spot in any save the deepest NL leagues.
June: wait.

Ramon Ortiz, RH Reliever, ANA: -1.77 ERA. May: deal.
Yes, he owns a 6:2 K:BB in 6.1 IP with 3 H and 0 HR, but pitching only three times in three weeks gives a player little value to any team. While Ortiz won't hurt you, he offers little upside right now.
June: wait.

Julian Tavarez, RH Reliever, STL: -2.92 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between May and June:
2001: 0.53; 2002: 5.97; 2003: 3.38.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	9/21	62.0	73/6	40:22	2-5/0	6.10
June	12/20	87.2	79/5	45:37	7-3/0	3.18

04MAY	0/8	6.2	3/0	4:4	0-0/1	0.00

Obviously Tavarez won't manage any ERA decrease next month due to his overall effectiveness in May. Right now he owns a career-best 7.4 K/9, yet Tavarez's 1.9 K:BB and 1.87 G-F respectively are his best and worst marks since leaving Cleveland after 1996. A 3.9 walk rate, particularly when combined with a mediocre hit rate, won't help your WHIP at all, and the sharp increase in flyballs allowed leaves him vulnerable to a homer rate spike. Of course, despite the many drawbacks here, Tavarez remains a far safer bet in a bullpen than as a starter. After successfully closing in Pittsburgh towards the end of last season, his two saves in 2004 also make him the logical alternative when Jason Isringhausen hits the DL. Feel free to target Tavarez, especially in leagues where you own Izzy, but don't go out of your way to add him since he looks like no more than respectable roster filler in his current role.

Jim Brower, RH Reliever, SF: -2.21 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between May and June:
2001: 3.53; 2002: 0.15; 2003: 2.91.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	1/29	51.1	48/3	36:23	1-3/1	4.03
June	0/25	49.1	33/3	47:21	3-2/0	1.82

04MAY	1-2/0	0/11	13.1	13/2	9:4	3.38

I understand that owning Brower offers little benefit to most owners in standard leagues given his regularly weak WHIP and currently negligible quantitative contribution. He likely wouldn't remain this effective either as a starter or closer, and I don't see him holding an ERA under 3.50 all season. However his 2.12 G-F makes him a relatively safe play on a team that features former Gold Glovers Neifi Perez and J.T. Snow as starter infielders. His improving control similarly leads me to believe he again should cut his ERA roughly in half this June. Look to target him anywhere you might benefit from employing a low-risk middle reliever for a few weeks rather than a volatile starter. My only hesitation in recommending him stems from the knowledge that he normally struggles in July, so view Brower strictly in terms of the short-term boost he should provide your team.

Jose Mesa, RH Closer, PIT: -1.72 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between May and June:
2001: 0.02; 2002: 2.45; 2003: 3.60.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/39	38.0	37/3	30:16	2-5/26	4.26
June	0/34	39.0	31/3	35:11	3-2/15	2.54

04MAY	0/9	10.0	8/0	7:1	0-0/6	0.00

The renaissance experienced by the 38-year-old closer ranks with the most impressive turnarounds of the season. Not only does Mesa's 1.4 BB/9 easily rank as the best mark of his career, he owns a 6.1 H/9 despite a mediocre Pittsburgh defense. Yes, he no longer dominates batters, but with a 0.47 ERA and a perfect record in 13 save opportunities, he might be more effective right now than at any previous point in his fifteen-year career. While he should net the Pirates a couple of solid prospects in late July if they choose to move him, he should continue closing wherever he ends the season due his increasing inconsistency in middle relief. With his role essentially secure, I see no reason not to target Mesa to secure a stud source of saves.

Jamie Moyer, LH Starter, SEA: -1.65 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between May and June:
2001: 0.39; 2002: 3.42; 2003: 1.07.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	16/16	101.1	96/20	53:27	5-2/0	4.26
June	17/17	113.2	78/7	70:27	6-6/0	2.61

04MAY	4/4	26.1	25/8	14:4	1-0/0	4.10

Moyer's downturn appears largely lost amidst Seattle's struggles and the tremendous success of fellow 40-year-old hurlers Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson. I don't see any single statistical reason for Moyer's dramatic ERA jump after three seasons around a 3.30 mark, however nearly all his skills appear deteriorating. Of course, a surprisingly poor 2.1 HR/9 accounts for much of his ERA problems, but a 32323 current QA log doesn't support the hope of a quick return to last year's effectiveness. The proper course now is to wait to see how Seattle's pending rebuilding project affects Moyer. He should remain with the Mariners, but unless they improve their defense, we won't see a significant increase in his qualitative contribution. Dismantling their currently poor lineup similarly lowers his chances for reaching double-digit wins, so only look to add Moyer right now if can take advantage of his tenuous situation if you can obtain him at a significant discount from his pre-season value.

Today's Fantasy Rx: None of these historical June successes appear a great addition to any 2004 fantasy team. Mesa offers the most immediate help and Moyer is a respectable sleeper, however the best way to improve your pitching over the next month remains targeting skilled pitchers in situations conductive to their accumulation of helpful fantasy stats.