Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose June performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in May. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both May and June over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from May to June while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Benito Santiago, C, KC: -.107 BA; -.310 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between May and June:
2001: .052/.128; 2002: .157/.344; 2003: .110/.442.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	239	16:33	.347/.388/.540
June	258	11:46	.240/.273/.345

04MAY	53	0:14	.245/.259/.358

Yes, he could improve on his career-worst current .243/.269/.374 performance, but with Santiago's historically most productive month nearly over, I see little likelihood of significant improvement in the 39-year-old's future. Playing in another terrible hitters' park in a surprisingly weak lineup diminishes both his qualitative and quantitative output. Unfortunately, despite a 1.00 G-F and an expected 3.30 #P/PA, a diminished .80 contact rate indicates a slowing bat, and a .03 walk rate simply isn't acceptable. Find a way to deal Santiago by using his assumed power potential as a way to exchange him for someone who won't hurt your BA like Damian Miller, Dan Wilson, or even Toby Hall.

Marquis Grissom, OF, SF: -.091 BA; -.267 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between May and June:
2001: .143/.502; 2002: .092/.267; 2003: .057/.101.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	233	12:37	.330/.360/.601
June	243	11:45	.239/.274/.420

04MAY	79	5:11	.304/.345/.494

Grissom turned 37 this April yet his .887 OPS ranks as the best mark of his career. Perhaps he can sustain his current pace thanks to lessons learned from the daily clinic run by his teammate in left field, but Grissom's .07 walk rate and 3.42 #P/PA both remain near his career norms. At least his career-best 1.05 G-F and a .88 contact rate combine to support his .519 SLG, however I still see little to expect he'll maintain his current level of production given his normal summer slump. Shop Grissom now to see if you can swap him for a younger player with more upside.

Michael Barrett, C, CHC: -.057 BA; -.234 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between May and June:
2001: .029/.206; 2002: .115/.330; 2003: .023/.160.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	192	27:20	.271/.365/.427
June	187	9:28	.214/.253/.305

04MAY	55	2:9	.218/.254/.400

Impressively strong plate discipline historically accompanies Barrett's May excellence. Since he owns little obvious patience right now, he lacked the skills to maintain the .356/.385/.661 he compiled in April. A career-best 1.08 G-F at least suggests he could surpass his previous career high of a dozen homers, however his average should continue falling in the upcoming months. Make every attempt to deal Barrett now before a plummeting BA negates his otherwise helpful quantitative contribution.

Mark McLemore, 2B, OAK: -.089 BA; -.228 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between May and June:
2001: .079/.141; 2002: .107/.555; 2003: .054/.110.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	192	31:50	.302/.396/.443
June	169	27:38	.213/.321/.290

04MAY	22	1:1	.182/.217/.227

I expect McLemore's injury and extended rehab to push back his normal trend schedule this year, however only teams desperate for any quantitative boost should consider him right now. Scutaro remains a respectable option for Oakland, and the 39-year-old McLemore likely won't contribute much in any category. Wait to see how the Athletics distribute at-bats over the next couple weeks before you look to roster someone with McLemore's limited upside.

Carlos Guillen, SS, DET: -.088 BA; -.201 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between May and June:
2001: .065/.082; 2002: .012/.113; 2003: .180/.389.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	272	29:48	.313/.374/.463
June	200	22:39	.225/.301/.335

04MAY	71	9:11	.338/.413/.563

While Guillen only ranks behind Mike Young in total offensive contribution among AL shortstops, he normally posts a couple of strong months of stats before returning to a mediocre level of performance. His high current ranking appears more due to Nomar's injury and Jeter's ridiculously poor production. All of Guillen's skills remain right in line with his previous marks, and leaving Seattle for Detroit provides him with no ballpark boost at all. Without any obvious signs of growth, expect his averages to fall relatively close to his .269/.341/.393 career norm by the end of the season. I still expect 2004 to look like a career year for Guillen, however I simply see little upside in keeping him for the rest of the season. Deal him now before diminishing stats undercut his trade value.

Bobby Higginson, OF, DET: -069. BA; -.171 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between May and June:
2001: .021/.075; 2002: .020/.052; 2003: .158/.419.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	254	41:32	.307/.402/.441
June	189	28:21	.238/.333/.339

04MAY	52	9:12	.269/.397/.442

Higginson's production likely will decline in June, however the 33-year-old owns his best overall skills in three seasons, appears healthy, and certainly could reach $20 if his homers increase in the second half. Unfortunately, while his 3.87 #P/PA and .98 G-F suggest some upside, a .81 contact rate, Higginson's worst mark since his 1995 debut, indicates he possesses little chance of posting a helpful BA. Without a good chance at approaching a .300 average or any obvious speed skills, he'll struggle to remain in double-digit value on a team that looks very likely to slump in the second half. Use his apparent rebound as an excuse to deal Higginson before a falling BA sabotages his already minimal contribution.

Jacques Jones, OF, MIN: -.059 BA; -.140 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between May and June:
2001: .087/.132; 2002: .001/.112; 2003: .090/.168.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	288	18:65	.306/.350/.472
June	299	12:69	.247/.277/.405

04MAY	72	5:15	.278/.342/.472

The only consistently healthy and productive position player on the team, Jones continues to reward the Twins for their decision not to deal him. While I expect him to depart for greener pastures after this season, he first appears in line for a career year. Despite the limitations imposed on his power potential by a 2.29 G-F, a 3.64 #P/PA, a career-best .82 contact rate, and an 80% SB success rate make him a good bet to approach a $30 value season. Of course, the extreme similarity between his current performance and Jones' historical May numbers strongly suggests he'll slump in June, but you still should wait since he normally rebound in July to excel throughout the second half. Rather than selling short on Jones now, see if his June problems create an opportunity to trade for Jones in the second half of the month, thereby giving your offense a nice boost for an extended stretch run.

Due to their respective injuries and the lack of expected return dates for either player, I didn't discuss Troy Glaus or Tony Graffanino today even though they generally slumo in June. Wait until you see them playing regularly on a rehab assignment in the upper minors before taking any action involving either player.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Santiago, Barrett, Guillen, and Higginson look like the players most likely to experience problems over the rest of the season. If you own any of them, make at least one serious attempt to move them this week.